French foreign policy may become less interventionist

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Trade Negotiations ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
French Foreign Policy ◽  
Defence Cooperation

Significance Foreign policy has so far hardly been an issue in the campaigns for next year's presidential election. Nonetheless, a harsh debate around the structural decline of France's international clout has broken out among experts. Several right-wing contenders have taken these discussions into account, calling for a new image for France in the world. Impacts Given President Francois Hollande's weakness, the winner of the centre-right primaries has a good chance of becoming the next president. France is likely to push for greater foreign policy and defence cooperation with other EU countries as US policy becomes less predictable. France may become more assertive in international trade negotiations, further limiting the prospects of the TTIP EU-US trade deal.

Macron-Le Pen rivalry is set to intensify in France

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Competition ◽  
Party Competition ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Municipal Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
French Foreign Policy

Subject French party competition. Significance The 2017 presidential election dealt a major blow to the parties that had dominated French political competition over the past six decades. Party competition consolidated subsequently around a 'globalist against nativist' narrative pitting President Emmanuel Macron’s En Marche (LRM) against Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN). Ahead of the 2022 presidential election, this competition looks set to persist. Impacts Macron’s hardening positions on crime and immigration will weaken further his appeal among left-wing voters. Macron’s focus on the 2022 election may weaken his recent growing assertiveness vis-a-vis EU and French foreign policy. Next year’s municipal elections represent an opportunity for some of the marginalised parties to regain electoral momentum.

Far-right populism and foreign policy identity: Jair Bolsonaro's ultra-conservatism and the new politics of alignment

2021 ◽  
Vol 97 (2) ◽  
pp. 345-363
Author(s):  
Feliciano De Sá Guimarães ◽  
Irma Dutra De Oliveira E Silva
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Role Theory ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Far Right ◽  
New Politics ◽  
The World ◽  
Role Conceptions ◽  
National Role Conceptions

Abstract In the last two decades, far-right populists have formed governments all over the world. However, systematic analyses on how far-right leaders recreate their countries' foreign policy identity are still underdeveloped. In this article, we analyse how far-right populist leaders use their conservative identity-set to align with other right-wing governments and how they use the same conservative repertoire to deal with ideological rivals. More precisely, we argue that these leaders tend to overemphasize a deep conservative identity-set towards other far-right populist governments, something we call ‘thick conservative identity’. This profoundly conservative identity-set is composed of three national role conceptions: anti-globalism, nationalism and anti-foe. However, they do not repeat this identity-set towards ideological rivals, preferring to use a more nuanced and contradictory one, something we call ‘thin conservative identity’. The trigger of such difference is the anticipated mutual expectation of conservatism between Ego and Alter, in which Ego mimics Alter's deep conservatism. We use Jair Bolsonaro's alignment with Donald Trump and Bolsonaro's relationship with China as illustrative cases. We use the main concepts of role theory to understand both how conservative alignments are created and how far-right governments deal with ideological rivals.

Nazarbayev's re-election will boost Kazakh 'siloviki'

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Strategic Alliance ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Intention To Stay ◽  
The West ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Office ◽  
High Degree

Significance Three candidates competed for the country's supreme political office in the election on April 26. Unsurprisingly, Nazarbayev (74) won by a landslide, obtaining 97.7% of the total votes cast; the official turnout was 95.2%. This is the fifth presidential election in Kazakhstan since it gained independence in 1991. Nazarbayev's triumphant re-election suggests he intends to stay in power so long as his health permits. The prospect of an early succession is, therefore, again indefinitely delayed. Impacts Nazarbayev's re-election and apparent intention to stay in power are positive signs for foreign investors interested in political stability. His win may facilitate implementing anti-crisis measures thanks to domestic stability and a high degree of political centralisation. Kazakhstan's strategic alliance with Russia in the Eurasian Union is unlikely to experience major changes after Nazarbayev's re-election. Astana will continue to pursue a multi-vector foreign policy aimed at good relations with Russia, China, the West and Islamic countries.

Regulations could hinder private US drone use

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Commercial Exploitation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Potential Market ◽  
The World ◽  
Advantageous Position ◽  
End Use

Significance The FAA's proposed regulations will open up drone use in the United States to commercial exploitation. While in some respects less rigorous than they might have been, the draft regulations will initially limit drone use. This could leave the United States in a less advantageous position than operators elsewhere in the world to develop drone-based services. Impacts The potential market for these larger drones is put at over 89 billion dollars over the next ten years. Military sales will be 72 billion dollars in that period. End-use control on military exports will help Washington influence allied foreign policy.

Japan will move to counter China's rise

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Strategy ◽  
China’S Rise ◽  
Rise Of China ◽  
China's Rise ◽  
Defence Cooperation ◽  
The Rise Of China

Subject Japan's foreign policy strategy. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has changed core structures and frameworks within which Japan's foreign and defence policies are made. These changes can be seen as responses to the rise of China. Impacts Japan will use aid to counter China's influence, competing on quality and a record of delivering on promises. Laws passed under Abe could allow much greater defence cooperation with Australia and India. India is a future partner in Japan's developing relationship with Africa to compete with China’s Africa strategy.

Mongolia's new president may push nationalistic policy

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Election Campaign ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
The Public

Subject The recent presidential election in Mongolia. Significance With the victory of Khaltmaa Battulga in the presidential election on July 7, the Democratic Party (DP) has held onto the presidency. The legislature and cabinet remain in the hands of the rival Mongolian People’s Party (MPP). The election of an MPP president would have signalled continuity and stability; a Battulga win introduces uncertainty. Impacts Battulga may push to scale back austerity and provide the public with more immediate benefits from the resources sector. Despite the anti-Chinese sentiment evident during Battulga's election campaign, he is more likely to be pragmatic than confrontational. Battulga may use the presidency's foreign policy powers to reach out to Russia.

Beijing’s ambitions and assertiveness will grow

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Policy Agenda ◽  
Senior Leadership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Self Interest ◽  
The World ◽  
Belt And Road ◽  
The Belt And Road

Significance The senior leadership seeks to defend its position within China, first and foremost by preserving and strengthening the power of the Party through which it rules. China’s growing wealth and power create new opportunities for the Party to bolster its power -- and give rise to new threats that could undermine it. Impacts China’s ambitions centre on itself; they do not involve remaking the world in China’s image. China’s interests converge with other states' on climate change and economic cooperation; disputes concern how gains and costs are shared. China’s pursuit of its self-interest may sometimes have positive spill-overs, such as when it shares innovations, freely or otherwise. Despite controversies and setbacks, the Belt and Road will provide infrastructure critical for economic development globally. Beijing, long a practitioner of commercial espionage, is becoming bolder in its use of cyber operations to pursue its foreign policy agenda.

Chile leader may see more Prosur headaches than kudos

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Regional Grouping

Subject Foreign policy and Prosur. Significance Government-opposition differences on foreign policy are unusual in Chile, but have been triggered by President Sebastian Pinera’s championship of Prosur, a new regional grouping launched in Santiago on March 22. It has been criticised by the left-wing opposition as bringing together only centre-right and right-wing governments. Impacts Trade issues, although remaining important, may become less of a driver of Chile’s foreign policy. There is no clear reason to expect that Prosur will be more successful than previous initiatives like UNASUR. Discrepancies in Chile over foreign policy and, particularly, relations with the Bolsonaro government will persist.

Suga will hold Japan steady in short term only

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Significance He leaves office having failed to achieve his ambition to reform Japan’s constitution, and is widely seen as having mismanaged the most serious public health crisis in decades. Impacts New foreign policy initiatives are unlikely until after the US presidential election. Abe could make a decision before leaving office on whether Japan should acquire pre-emptive strike capabilities. No moves on constitution revision are likely for the next twelve months at least. Japan would be at a disadvantage if a foreign policy crisis were to occur in the next twelve months, and the next few weeks in particular. Whether the Olympics next summer go well will have some influence on whether Suga stays on as leader.

Romanian ruling party could limit post-Dragnea reforms

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
European Parliament ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Judicial Appointments ◽  
The Social ◽  
Ruling Party ◽  
The Eu

Subject Romania after Dragnea. Significance For much of the last five years that Liviu Dragnea controlled the Social Democrats (PSD), he also dominated the Romanian state politically. His 42-month sentence for corruption, handed down on May 27, has opened up a vacuum in the ruling PSD, and there is no obvious successor. The verdict came immediately after two electoral blows -- massive defeat in the European Parliament (EP) elections; and a resounding rebuff in a non-binding referendum in which over 80% opposed PSD attempts to amend or cancel anti-corruption legislation. Impacts President Iohannis is likely to assert himself in foreign policy, but has lost leverage in deciding senior judicial appointments. The presidential election this autumn may not be crucial in the tussle for power, as the presidency has much-reduced powers. The EU will be highly critical of Romania’s fast-increasing budget deficit, a legacy of the Dragnea era.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document