Lebanese protests will tighten the economic trap

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Currency Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Account Deficits

Significance Lebanon’s debt is reaching unsustainable levels, meaning politicians can no longer delay addressing longstanding structural fiscal and current account deficits. However, public rejection of the political class is mounting. Impacts The return of Gulf tourists to Lebanon could hurt alternative destinations such as Jordan. Gulf donors’ efforts to condition financial support on disengagement from Iran will fail, but could limit disbursement. If Lebanon suffers a debt and currency crisis, this could spread to other emerging markets. Raising a planned 2-billion-dollar bond will be extremely challenging.

Frontier’s Bright Economic Outlook

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marko Dimitrijević ◽  
Timothy Mistele
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Fast Growth ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Macroeconomic Fundamentals ◽  
Economic Outlook ◽  
Debt Levels

Describes frontier markets’ fast growth (71 of the world's 75 fastest-growing economies are frontier markets) and argues that the strong macroeconomic fundamentals of today’s frontier markets, including shrinking or well-financed current account deficits, lower debt levels, moderate inflation, and increased foreign direct investment, will help these markets mimic and accelerate the path to emergence taken by today’s mainstream emerging markets

Gang alliance heightens political concerns in Haiti

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
International Aid ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Transmission Rates

Significance With Moise becoming increasingly isolated from the political class, he is forging alliances with other sectors to maintain his support. This has led to allegations that he may be dealing with criminal gangs in an effort to cement his control. Impacts High levels of COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic mean transmission rates in Haiti are likely to continue rising. Concerns about Moise’s perceived authoritarian tendencies will further weigh on prospects for investment and international aid. More resignations from Moise’s cabinet would further reduce his political credibility.

Political crisis threatens Brazil's tentative recovery

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Company ◽  
The Media ◽  
The Government

Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.

Prospects for India in the fourth quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Foreign Capital ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Bright Spot ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Depreciation ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party

Subject Prospects for India in the fourth quarter. Significance Flustered by a stock market collapse and continuing currency depreciation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will enter the fourth quarter with some trepidation. Like all emerging markets, India faces economic uncertainty, with growth slowing and foreign capital exiting. Little relief is forthcoming on the political and policy fronts for Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The only bright spot may be diplomatic outreach.

Tunisian elections will fail to solve problems

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Unions ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Political Outcomes ◽  
Leftist Parties

Significance Jockeying ahead of the elections has stalled decision-making on critical economic policies. While the political class is mired in internal debate, citizens are growing increasingly angry at politicians they hold responsible for deteriorating economic conditions. Impacts Political infighting will further alienate Tunisians leading to low voter turnout. Labour unions will attempt to influence political outcomes by organising (or threatening to call) strikes. Nidaa Tounes and leftist parties may stoke identity and security issues to attack their opponents and mobilise voters.

Inexperienced Castillo faces major challenges in Peru

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Election ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Full Term ◽  
The Political ◽  
Mining Sector ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Status ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
Company Taxation

Subject A profile of Pedro Castillo. Significance Pedro Castillo has emerged as the unexpected winner of Peru’s 2021 presidential election. A schoolteacher far removed from the political establishment, his victory had led to concerns about what his presidency would look like and, indeed, whether it would last a full term. His challenge to the status quo has the political class deeply rattled. Impacts A Castillo government can be expected to increase company taxation, especially in the all-important mining sector. Most businessmen will prefer to wait and see what his government will bring before seeking to subvert it. If he moves far to the centre, Castillo will open up space for criticism on the left, not least from his own party.

CAR’s president will welcome dialogue on his own terms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central African Republic ◽  
Mineral Resources ◽  
The Political ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Political Class ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Trade Routes ◽  
The Subject

Significance However, the launch of this initiative to bring “peace, security and development” to the Central African Republic (CAR) remains the subject of many disputes within the political class. Impacts Armed groups will continue fighting in the peripheries, including over control of mineral resources and trade routes. Divisions among international actors over whether armed groups should be invited to the dialogue will reduce the pressure on Touadera. Touadera will face pressure either to involve former President Francois Bozize in the dialogue or to agree to a plan for his exile.

Boom will fail to put Romanian economy on firm footing

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Business Leaders ◽  
Constitutional Court ◽  
Economic Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
Public Projects ◽  
Current Account Deficits ◽  
Economic Imbalances ◽  
Institutional Boundaries

Subject Shortcomings in economic management. Significance Political tussles over the remit of corruption investigations and the consequences for politicians’ careers of their wrongdoing, as well as struggles over institutional boundaries between the Prosecutor’s Office, National Anti-corruption Directorate (DNA), justice ministry, Constitutional Court, presidency and parliament, have consumed much energy in recent years and threaten to engulf politics, with damaging consequences for the economy. Business leaders and economic analysts want attention shifted to addressing underlying economic imbalances, staving off inflation and runaway budget and current account deficits, and relaunching much-needed investment. Impacts An excessive public focus on individual politicians and senior officials is undermining state institutions. Higher inflation and external imbalances have re-emerged, pointing to underlying weaknesses in the economy. Capacity to deliver on vital public projects has been neglected, contributing to inadequate investment levels.

COVID-19 crisis will test Ghanaian fiscal discipline

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Economic Shocks ◽  
Election Cycle ◽  
Fiscal Discipline ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Account Deficits

Subject Ghanaian economic shocks. Significance GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.5% this year, compared with the 5.8% expected before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic -- the lowest level in nearly four decades. Similarly, key macroeconomic metrics such as the fiscal and current account deficits, government revenues and inflation are all set to deteriorate sharply. This could be temporary but the COVID-19 crisis amid an election cycle will heighten spending pressures. Impacts Although progress towards debt sustainability will suffer, Accra will likely avoid a ratings downgrade by keeping interest costs stable. The higher fiscal deficit in 2020 could obscure additional loosening of the fiscal stance ahead of elections in December. The more than seven-fold increase in COVID-19 cases since the lockdown was eased risks damaging improving sentiment towards Ghanaian assets.

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