CAR’s president will welcome dialogue on his own terms

Significance However, the launch of this initiative to bring “peace, security and development” to the Central African Republic (CAR) remains the subject of many disputes within the political class. Impacts Armed groups will continue fighting in the peripheries, including over control of mineral resources and trade routes. Divisions among international actors over whether armed groups should be invited to the dialogue will reduce the pressure on Touadera. Touadera will face pressure either to involve former President Francois Bozize in the dialogue or to agree to a plan for his exile.

Significance However, the Constitutional Court must still approve the contested electoral register and rule on the eligibility of candidates, including former President Francois Bozize. Impacts Bozize's exclusion may prompt the main opposition platform, the Coalition for Democratic Opposition (COD-2020), to boycott the polls. Instability may compromise the deployment of international, independent experts to observe or provide technical support to elections. Dissatisfaction among the political opposition, armed groups and regional leaders over the lack of dialogue may grow after the elections.


Author(s):  
Paul Collier

Are natural assets a curse? In The Bottom Billion I argued why I thought they often did more harm than good to the poorest countries. But the real measure is not just the damage they cause, but their harm relative to their potential. Natural resources are the largest assets available to these societies. Their known natural capital has been estimated to be worth double their produced capital. The failure to harness natural capital is the single-most important missed opportunity in economic development. Since writing The Bottom Billion I have accumulated more research on the subject, as have many others. Indeed, whether an abundance of natural assets is a blessing or a curse is currently one of the disputes raging among economists. There are some high-visibility instances of natural assets appearing to ruin a country: Sierra Leone’s diamonds, for example, seemed to shred the fabric of that society to pieces; Nigeria’s oil fueled the corruption of the political class. But are these just outliers? After all, Botswana harnessed its diamonds to produce the fastest growing economy in the world, and Norway used its oil to achieve the world’s highest living standard. The question becomes whether there really is a “resource curse,” and whether, if it does exist, it is limited to countries with deeper problems. I have come to regard this as the most crucial issue in the struggle to transform the poorest societies. The revenues that they could get from natural assets are enormous, dwarfing any conceivable flows of aid. They could certainly be transformative. If they deliver, any efforts to inhibit the extraction of natural assets from the poorest countries are not simply counterproductive but irresponsible, impeding the path out of poverty. If, on the other hand, natural assets backfire, then there is an argument for leaving them in the ground. There would indeed be the basis for an alliance between the environmental lobby, pressing for natural assets to be conserved, and the development lobby, fighting to end mass poverty.


Significance With Moise becoming increasingly isolated from the political class, he is forging alliances with other sectors to maintain his support. This has led to allegations that he may be dealing with criminal gangs in an effort to cement his control. Impacts High levels of COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic mean transmission rates in Haiti are likely to continue rising. Concerns about Moise’s perceived authoritarian tendencies will further weigh on prospects for investment and international aid. More resignations from Moise’s cabinet would further reduce his political credibility.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (4(17)) ◽  
pp. 263-286
Author(s):  
Tope Shola Akinyetun

Nigeria is a nation with plural ethnic, religious, lingual and cultural identities that are constantly exploited by the political class to promote their selfish interest. Although not a determinant forconflict, diversity in Nigeria has unjustifiably sparked identity-based conflicts which necessitateseparatism, insurgency and ethnic restiveness – among others, which threatens to drive the country to a perpetual state of fragility. This paper thence sought to assess Nigeria’s tortuous experience with identity and identity politics with particular reference to ethnic, religious, and lingual challenges. The paper furthers the discussion on identity politics in Nigeria to proffer practicable solutions. It argues that identity consciousness has overtaken national consciousness and engendered a relationship characterized by domination, superiority and hegemony by the various groups. It reveals that the currency of politics is an ethnic-hegemony-rivalry sentiment that threatens national integration. The paper reviews available literature on the subject matter from peer-reviewed journal articles, reports of reputable international organizations, working papers and newspaper articles. It concluded that identities have become powerful manipulative instruments in the hands of the political elites used to divide the Nigerian populace. It recommended the promotion of justice, equity and fairness in governance to ameliorate the chances of identity dissension and identity-based conflicts.


Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.


Significance Lebanon’s debt is reaching unsustainable levels, meaning politicians can no longer delay addressing longstanding structural fiscal and current account deficits. However, public rejection of the political class is mounting. Impacts The return of Gulf tourists to Lebanon could hurt alternative destinations such as Jordan. Gulf donors’ efforts to condition financial support on disengagement from Iran will fail, but could limit disbursement. If Lebanon suffers a debt and currency crisis, this could spread to other emerging markets. Raising a planned 2-billion-dollar bond will be extremely challenging.


Significance Jockeying ahead of the elections has stalled decision-making on critical economic policies. While the political class is mired in internal debate, citizens are growing increasingly angry at politicians they hold responsible for deteriorating economic conditions. Impacts Political infighting will further alienate Tunisians leading to low voter turnout. Labour unions will attempt to influence political outcomes by organising (or threatening to call) strikes. Nidaa Tounes and leftist parties may stoke identity and security issues to attack their opponents and mobilise voters.


Subject A profile of Pedro Castillo. Significance Pedro Castillo has emerged as the unexpected winner of Peru’s 2021 presidential election. A schoolteacher far removed from the political establishment, his victory had led to concerns about what his presidency would look like and, indeed, whether it would last a full term. His challenge to the status quo has the political class deeply rattled. Impacts A Castillo government can be expected to increase company taxation, especially in the all-important mining sector. Most businessmen will prefer to wait and see what his government will bring before seeking to subvert it. If he moves far to the centre, Castillo will open up space for criticism on the left, not least from his own party.


2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chijioke Basil Onuoha ◽  
◽  
Henry Ufomba ◽  
Ebong Itoro Bassey

One of the most contested issues in Nigeria’s political landscape and federal structure is the debate on the fiscal autonomy of the Local Government as the third tier of government. The literature on the subject appears to zero down the issue of Local Government fiscal autonomy to a political ‘devil’. The position of existing scholarship on the subject concludes that by taking advantage of Sections 7 and 162 of the 1999 Constitution of Nigeria, it is common practice for the State Governors to usurp the autonomy of the Local Governments. The Governors are also accused of using the Joint Account framework to control the statutory allocations of the Local Governments. Hence, Local Governments in Nigeria lacks fiscal autonomy which is one of the main principles of the three tiers of government structure. However, the underlying politics that has played out in the Fourth Republic in Nigeria reveals that this historical and legalistic perception does not provide a complete explanation of the problem. This is because the literature does not consider the role of the political elite at the Local Government level in sustaining the shrewd nature of State and Local Governments interaction in Nigeria’s Federal structure, rather the existing literature focused entirely on the governor as a ‘devil’ and ignores the role of the political class at the grassroots level as “lying angels”. This paper is therefore an invitation for a deeper theoretical deconstruction of this phenomenon to stimulate an encompassing and interesting perceptive on what we conceptualize as State-Local Government Interactions in Nigeria (SLIN). Our primary objective is to draw attention to the role of the personalities of the political class at the grassroots level which makes up the highest cadre of the hierarchy in the Local Government in shaping SLIN. We present a case that future debates should go beyond “devil” and also focus on the profound role of “lying angels”.


Subject Central African Republic's peace process. Significance President Faustin Archange Touadera’s government has been bolstered by Russian military support, with UN peacekeepers and the EU helping the state to re-establish a presence in provincial areas and African mediators drawing some armed groups into dialogue. Nevertheless, the Central African Republic (CAR) remains trapped in a profound crisis that will be difficult to escape. Impacts The retirement of 829 armed forces personnel could make room for former rebel fighters to be integrated into the military. Despite progress in rebuilding the judicial system, this is unlikely quickly to deter human rights violators on all sides. Sectarian factions in Bangui may stir new inter-communal violence and clashes with UN peacekeeping troops.


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