Gang alliance heightens political concerns in Haiti

Significance With Moise becoming increasingly isolated from the political class, he is forging alliances with other sectors to maintain his support. This has led to allegations that he may be dealing with criminal gangs in an effort to cement his control. Impacts High levels of COVID-19 in the Dominican Republic mean transmission rates in Haiti are likely to continue rising. Concerns about Moise’s perceived authoritarian tendencies will further weigh on prospects for investment and international aid. More resignations from Moise’s cabinet would further reduce his political credibility.

Significance The decision followed the devastation caused by Hurricane Matthew, which struck the country on October 4, killing hundreds. With estimates of casualties and property damage still being revised upwards, it is unclear when the electoral authorities will be in a position to reschedule the much-delayed elections. Impacts The United States will push for elections to be rescheduled quickly, as it was opposed to the rerun in the first place. However, holding elections too quickly would be controversial, as it would risk disenfranchising displaced voters. Popular anger at the devastation will be ultimately channelled into frustration with the political paralysis. The crisis could drive up attempted migration to the Dominican Republic and the United States.


Significance The requests are based on plea bargains from former executives of construction company Odebrecht. While the names in ‘Janot’s list’ have not been disclosed, several of them have leaked to the media. They include six ministers in the government of President Michel Temer, two former presidents, ten state governors, and the heads of both houses of Congress. If confirmed, this would make the list a potent bombshell for the Brazilian political class. Impacts The corruption scandal looks set to disrupt next year’s presidential election. Politicians’ disdain for accountability will fuel outrage with the political class. The ground could be fertile for a candidate claiming to be an ‘outsider’.


Significance According to these results, Jovenel Moise of the Haitian Party of Bald Heads (PHTK) won a first-round victory with 55.67% of the vote, defeating Jude Celestin of Alternative League for Haitian Progress and Empowerment (Lapeh), who gained just 19.52%. The elections were a rerun of those originally held on October 25, 2015, in which Moise won 32.8% of the vote to Celestin’s 25.2%. Impacts Protests are likely in the run-up to the result’s confirmation, as voters express their dissatisfaction with the political process. The restoration of democratic process should unlock more international aid, some of which was suspended during the political impasse. Security issues will remain a key challenge, exacerbated by the economic damage caused by Hurricane Matthew.


Significance Lebanon’s debt is reaching unsustainable levels, meaning politicians can no longer delay addressing longstanding structural fiscal and current account deficits. However, public rejection of the political class is mounting. Impacts The return of Gulf tourists to Lebanon could hurt alternative destinations such as Jordan. Gulf donors’ efforts to condition financial support on disengagement from Iran will fail, but could limit disbursement. If Lebanon suffers a debt and currency crisis, this could spread to other emerging markets. Raising a planned 2-billion-dollar bond will be extremely challenging.


Significance Jockeying ahead of the elections has stalled decision-making on critical economic policies. While the political class is mired in internal debate, citizens are growing increasingly angry at politicians they hold responsible for deteriorating economic conditions. Impacts Political infighting will further alienate Tunisians leading to low voter turnout. Labour unions will attempt to influence political outcomes by organising (or threatening to call) strikes. Nidaa Tounes and leftist parties may stoke identity and security issues to attack their opponents and mobilise voters.


Subject A profile of Pedro Castillo. Significance Pedro Castillo has emerged as the unexpected winner of Peru’s 2021 presidential election. A schoolteacher far removed from the political establishment, his victory had led to concerns about what his presidency would look like and, indeed, whether it would last a full term. His challenge to the status quo has the political class deeply rattled. Impacts A Castillo government can be expected to increase company taxation, especially in the all-important mining sector. Most businessmen will prefer to wait and see what his government will bring before seeking to subvert it. If he moves far to the centre, Castillo will open up space for criticism on the left, not least from his own party.


Significance However, the launch of this initiative to bring “peace, security and development” to the Central African Republic (CAR) remains the subject of many disputes within the political class. Impacts Armed groups will continue fighting in the peripheries, including over control of mineral resources and trade routes. Divisions among international actors over whether armed groups should be invited to the dialogue will reduce the pressure on Touadera. Touadera will face pressure either to involve former President Francois Bozize in the dialogue or to agree to a plan for his exile.


2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 2-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian Daude ◽  
Hamlet Gutierrez ◽  
Angel Melguizo

Purpose Tax incentives can be a useful tool to stimulate investment in developing countries. However, interest groups often are able to exert considerable influence in its management, if not its design. The purpose of this paper is to use a power-based approach to the political economy of tax reform to analyse the case of tax incentives for investment in the Dominican Republic. Based on original interviews and a detailed analysis of regulations, the authors study how interest groups work within the institutional framework to seek outcomes that best fit their objectives. However, when unsuccessful, they become powerful advocates of change. These power dynamics have important implications for the design and management of tax incentives in the Dominican Republic and in other developing economies. Design/methodology/approach Case study based on informed interviews with policy makers, lobbyists and researchers combined with statistical and administrative information to test the main hypotheses. Findings While the role of influence groups in creating tax schemes has been widely studied, the authors show that these groups can also have an important role in the administration of the regime and making it more or less open to modifications. The paper shows that the capture of investment incentives has rendered the tax system rigid and unstable in the Dominican Republic, subjecting the public interest hostage to the gain of few. Research limitations/implications Therefore, there is a need to review and reform tax policy, not just from a technical viewpoint, but more importantly altering the political arrangements. More transparency in assessing the impact of these schemes, disclosing information of who has access to tax exemptions and budgeting the tax expenditures can also be tools to increase public control over these instruments. Also, making it more difficult to grant tax incentives, for example by asking for an ex-ante justification and quantification of the externalities supposedly being created would reduce the abuse by power groups of these instruments. Without more balanced and independent leadership, it would be extremely difficult to advance in these fields. Originality/value The literature on the political economy of tax incentives normally focuses on how key actors work around the institutional framework to solve conflict of interests. This paper addresses a complementary – and in the viewpoint equally relevant – aspect of the political economy of tax incentives: once enacted, vested interests have a particular motivation to keep the incentives in place, and therefore the authors should understand how key actors work from within the institutional framework to seek the outcomes that better suit their interests. The analysis focuses on Dominican Republic, based on official data and additional in-depth interviews with policy makers, entrepreneurs and consultants that assist firms with tax and regulation issues.


Significance As prime minister and later president, Essebsi played an important role in the early stages of Tunisia’s peaceful transition to democracy, but failed to deliver any real programme to transform the country’s ailing economy. He leaves behind a country which has shown resilience in the face of many domestic and regional challenges, but in which political infighting and a lack of economic progress means trust in the political class is low. Essebsi’s death so close to an election he had promised not to contest means the Tunisian state was already prepared for a transition. Impacts Signing the electoral law will open the political class up to criticism that it is self-serving. Not signing the law could see a candidate under investigation for money-laundering win the presidency. Essebsi's Nidaa Tounes party has largely collapsed thanks to infighting, and is unlikely to do well in the parliamentary elections.


Significance She added more than 450,000 votes to her first-round score. Incumbent President Igor Dodon grudgingly conceded defeat, and Russia as well as the EU offered congratulations. Impacts Sandu's presidency will have the loudest pro-reform voice of any state institution. A political stand-off is possible if the presidency and parliament are unwilling to seek a consensus. Early elections will be more a preoccupation for the political class than for the average voter.


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