Boom will fail to put Romanian economy on firm footing

Subject Shortcomings in economic management. Significance Political tussles over the remit of corruption investigations and the consequences for politicians’ careers of their wrongdoing, as well as struggles over institutional boundaries between the Prosecutor’s Office, National Anti-corruption Directorate (DNA), justice ministry, Constitutional Court, presidency and parliament, have consumed much energy in recent years and threaten to engulf politics, with damaging consequences for the economy. Business leaders and economic analysts want attention shifted to addressing underlying economic imbalances, staving off inflation and runaway budget and current account deficits, and relaunching much-needed investment. Impacts An excessive public focus on individual politicians and senior officials is undermining state institutions. Higher inflation and external imbalances have re-emerged, pointing to underlying weaknesses in the economy. Capacity to deliver on vital public projects has been neglected, contributing to inadequate investment levels.

Significance Lebanon’s debt is reaching unsustainable levels, meaning politicians can no longer delay addressing longstanding structural fiscal and current account deficits. However, public rejection of the political class is mounting. Impacts The return of Gulf tourists to Lebanon could hurt alternative destinations such as Jordan. Gulf donors’ efforts to condition financial support on disengagement from Iran will fail, but could limit disbursement. If Lebanon suffers a debt and currency crisis, this could spread to other emerging markets. Raising a planned 2-billion-dollar bond will be extremely challenging.


Subject Fallout from Bosnian Serbs’ celebration of national day on January 9. Significance The Day of Republika Srpska (RS) was celebrated in the Serb-dominated entity with great pomp and in open defiance of the Constitutional Court of Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH), which had forbidden marking the Orthodox St Stephen’s Day (January 9) as a national holiday on the grounds that it discriminated against non-Serbs. The court has long been a thorn in the side of the Bosnian Croat and Serb leadership and is expected to be the next political battleground. The celebration also defied EU and US officials who had demanded that the court’s decision be respected. Impacts BiH’s deepening crisis is undermining state institutions at all levels and increasing its economic and social problems. Attempts by Croat or Serb leaders to move for independence could result in new violence. Growing tensions in and between Croatia, Serbia and Macedonia, and international divisions are supporting and even augmenting the crisis. Russian and Turkish influence in BiH may increase.


Subject Ghanaian economic shocks. Significance GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.5% this year, compared with the 5.8% expected before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic -- the lowest level in nearly four decades. Similarly, key macroeconomic metrics such as the fiscal and current account deficits, government revenues and inflation are all set to deteriorate sharply. This could be temporary but the COVID-19 crisis amid an election cycle will heighten spending pressures. Impacts Although progress towards debt sustainability will suffer, Accra will likely avoid a ratings downgrade by keeping interest costs stable. The higher fiscal deficit in 2020 could obscure additional loosening of the fiscal stance ahead of elections in December. The more than seven-fold increase in COVID-19 cases since the lockdown was eased risks damaging improving sentiment towards Ghanaian assets.


2014 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shalendra D. Sharma

Abstract“Global imbalances” manifest in the large current account deficits and surpluses in the global economy and blamed by many for the global financial crisis of 2008 has become a source of much friction and discord among the G-20 economies. Rebalancing the global economy is essential to mitigating the divisions and promoting a more sustainable economic recovery. How and why did these imbalances emerge in the first place, what explains why rebalancing has proven to be so difficult, and what are the implications of failure? This paper addresses these interrelated issues.


Subject Political outlook for Madagascar. Significance The parliamentary speaker claims that on May 27 members of the house voted in a majority to impeach President Hery Rajaonarimampianina, accusing him of "constitutional violations" and incompetence. The impeachment effort was likely designed to prevent the president from dissolving the legislature and calling fresh elections -- as recommended recently by a national reconciliation body. The move to remove the president risks plunging Madagascar back into the type of politial crisis that characterised the 2009-13 period. Impacts Crop damage caused by a January cyclone, combined with a locust plague, may make 25% of the population food insecure. Legal wrangles following the impeachment vote will cloud relations with donors, possibly weakening coordination on food relief provision. Relief spending may cause higher than expected fiscal and current account deficits -- currently projected at 2.1% and 11.0% respectively. Stalling reforms affecting fuel subsidies, public sector wages and transfers to state enterprises means extra fiscal space is unlikely.


Significance However, serious concerns remain about the credibility of Turkey's Central Bank (CBRT), whose refusal to mount an interest rate defence of the lira accentuates the risks posed by Turkish banks' large dollar-denominated debts, a significant proportion of which fall due within one year. Impacts Sentiment towards EMs has improved noticeably over the past month, with EM equities 5% up, despite indications of a December Fed rate rise. EM current account deficits are now less of a concern for investors, partly because they have narrowed since 2013. Markets are also now more concerned about China and the lack of growth. EM public-sector balance sheets have become significantly stronger since the late 1990s. The marked increase in the private sector's external indebtedness is now the key source of vulnerability for EMs.


Significance Since coming into power on the back of public protests in April-May 2018, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has committed to a robust overhaul of state institutions including the judiciary, where the Constitutional Court is a high priority. To move forward, the government has to tackle multiple legacy issues and resistance to change within state institutions. Impacts An all-new government faces teething problems including lack of capacity. The unexplained resignations of Armenia's intelligence and police chiefs hint at frictions within the governing team. Down the road, the government plans reforms to the electoral process and the political party system. Closed borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey are an obstacle to growth.


Significance However, amid ongoing conflict in Tigray and considerable political uncertainty around the upcoming elections, the outcome may be disappointing. Impacts Despite improving FDI and some debt relief, forex reserves will likely remain depressed due to persistently high current account deficits. International aid suspended due to the Tigray conflict may not be released until the second half of the year. Economic recovery should become more noticeable from early 2022, but double-digit growth rates will remain a thing of the past.


Author(s):  
Oleksandr Byrkovych

Purpose. The purpose of the article is to identify the fundamental values of the Ukrainian people, on the basis of which not only his mentality, but also all national-state institutions, including institutions of justice and justice, as well as to identify trends of influence of these values on the further development of legal foundations of the judiciary and justice of Ukraine. Method. The methodological basis of the study was the combination of principles and methods of scientific knowledge. For the objectivity of the research, a set of general scientific, special-legal, special-historical and philosophical methods of scientific knowledge was used. Results. At the current stage of reforming the institutions of the judiciary and the judiciary, the notion of fair justice, which is formed on the basis of popular national culture, plays an important role. Given the functioning of the modern Constitutional Court of Ukraine, whose representatives are formed by delegation to the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, the President of Ukraine, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the judiciary, this institution needs radical reform as it has repeatedly made political rather than constitutional decisions. Scientific novelty. Based on the analysis of the national tradition of justice, it is established that the Constitutional Court should be formed by public organizations, which are formed by legal experts. There are several higher scientific institutions in Ukraine which have departments, constitutional law research institutes. Their representatives should delegate the best experts in the constitutional right to competitive selection to fill vacancies in the constitutional court. Practical importance. The results of the study can be used in further historical and legal studies, preparation of special courses.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nikolas Kairinos

Purpose The study aims to explore how businesses across the UK have adapted to over a year of remote training, and where there is room for improvement as long-term hybrid working plans are put in place. The study also uncovers what digital tools businesses have relied on to deliver learning and development initiatives during remote working, and their effects on employee engagement and experience. Design/methodology/approach An independent body of research was commissioned among 750 UK business leaders and 1,235 UK adults in full-time employment. Findings The research found that while the majority of businesses were able to leverage digital solutions during extended periods of remote work, significant numbers found it difficult to train and develop employees remotely, with many employees dissatisfied with the outcomes. Originality/value The research offers some valuable insights for business leaders looking to improve their training schemes as workplaces settle into new patterns of working.


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