Bolivia election results are sure to be controversial

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Situation ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Organization Of American States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
American States ◽  
Election Results

Significance The most recent preliminary official figures give President Evo Morales a clear lead over his main rival, Carlos Mesa, but it remains unclear whether that lead will be sufficient to avoid a second round, which Mesa would be well-placed to win. Impacts A recount of votes may be required, possibly overseen by the Organization of American States. International criticism of the conduct of the elections will endure, especially from right-wing governments in the Americas. A deteriorating economic situation is likely to beset whoever takes office in January.

Honduras transparency body may fail to meet demands

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The State ◽  
Organization Of American States ◽  
Judicial Process ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Institutions ◽  
American States ◽  
Vested Interests ◽  
Set Up ◽  
And Training

Subject A new anti-corruption body has been put in place in Honduras. Significance On January 19, the Organization of American States (OAS) signed an agreement with Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernandez to set up an anti-corruption mission in the country. The mission, known as the Mission for Support against Corruption and Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH), will work to improve the judicial process with particular focus on anti-corruption cases. Impacts The MACCIH is likely to trigger protests by groups who wanted a different type of international mission. Vested interests within the state will see attempts to divert the mission's attention to corruption networks outside of state institutions. Cleaning up and training the judiciary will be a key aim for the MACCIH, but will be met with resistance from long-serving judges. The failure of the MACCIH could undermine the credibility of the OAS both within Honduras and more widely.

Local election wins raise Hungarian opposition hopes

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Government Support ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Domestic Capital ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Municipal Election

Subject Local and municipal election results. Significance The largely united opposition made a major breakthrough in local elections on October 13, taking Budapest and other cities and towns and eroding Prime Minister Viktor Orban's Fidesz party’s predominant position since 2006. A sex scandal plus changes within the opposition have apparently lost Fidesz the middle class, further emphasising the already stark divide between cities and the countryside. Impacts Orban’s weaker position will dent the confidence of the global right-wing populist movement, of which he is a figurehead. Domestic capital associated with the Orban government is at risk as investors price in a potential loss of government support. The decline in political stability may at least momentarily moderate investor confidence in Hungary.

Nicaragua set for further turbulence in 2020

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Organization Of American States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Pressure ◽  
American States ◽  
Outward Migration

Subject Unrest in 2020. Significance More than 18 months after protests began in Nicaragua, President Daniel Ortega remains in office and appears to have consolidated his position. Despite ongoing international pressure, particularly from the Organization of American States (OAS), he appears unwilling to make concessions to opposition protesters. While his repressive policies have helped perpetuate his regime, they provide no outlet for dissent, raising the risk that protests will explode again in 2020. Impacts Extended Temporary Protected Status will offer some economic relief, keeping remittances flowing from US-based Nicaraguans in 2020. Mounting pressure could force the ruling Sandinistas to look for a successor to 74-year-old Ortega. Ongoing repression will continue to encourage outward migration, primarily to neighbouring Costa Rica.

German populist party AfD may have reached its peak

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Radical Change ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eastern State ◽  
Feasible Option ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Right ◽  
Double Digit

Significance The recent state elections demonstrate that German voting patterns are becoming increasingly flexible. The right-wing populist Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) achieved double-digit results in all three elections and became the second-strongest party in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The election results also increase the intra-party pressure on Merkel and highlight the tensions within the coalition, but at the moment, neither a radical change in Merkel's refugee policies nor early federal elections seem likely. Impacts In Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Greens will form a coalition government with the weakened CDU. In Rhineland-Palatinate, a 'traffic light coalition' (SPD, Liberal Democrats and Greens) is the most likely outcome. In Saxony-Anhalt, a 'Kenya coalition' (CDU, SPD and Greens) is the only politically feasible option. In two states a CDU-SPD coalition would not have a sufficient majority to govern, which is a first in the Federal Republic's history.

Ecuador's left is down but far from out

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Economic Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Face Former ◽  
Election Results ◽  
Ruling Party

Significance The first round's leading candidate, former Vice-President Lenin Moreno, of the leftist ruling party Alianza Pais, will face former banker and centre-right candidate Guillermo Lasso on April 2. The announcement came amid accusations of fraud and growing criticism over the delays in releasing the official results. Impacts The election results will increase economic uncertainty and dampen economic activity in the short term. Political tensions will rise as the two presidential candidates battle to secure votes outside of their core constituencies. Whatever the runoff result, Alianza Pais will hold its National Assembly majority, exerting significant influence over legislative matters. With economic woes hindering the new government, four years of unpopular right-wing rule could pave the way for a Correa comeback in 2021.

Centrist grand coalition likely in the Netherlands

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Political Party ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Young Leader ◽  
Party Members ◽  
Left Party ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Right

Significance The results show a waning interest in the right-wing populist Freedom Party (PVV), which until mid-February was leading the polls. The PVV had been an unlikely candidate to enter government -- even if it had emerged as the strongest party -- as no other political party was willing to cooperate with it. However, the significance of the vote lies in the fact that it could reflect wider trends in Europe ahead of the French and German elections taking place later this year. Impacts The election provided a significant boost to the Green Left Party with its up-and-coming young leader Jesse Klaver. The PvdA, Rutte's coalition partner, alienated voters with its support for unpopular austerity measures. Senior party members have come forward suggesting that the PvdA should dissolve. Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem may have to stand down as Eurogroup president if his PvdA is not involved in the new coalition. The election results have been welcomed by most European countries and are widely regarded as an anti-populist pro-Europe stance.

Bolivia’s MAS has a chance of returning to power

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
Policy Research ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Massachusetts Institute Of Technology ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
American States ◽  
Institute Of Technology ◽  
Economic Choices ◽  
Opinion Polls

Subject Bolivia election update. Significance With less than two months until the re-run of the presidential elections on May 3, opinion polls put the left-wing Movimiento al Socialismo (Movement towards Socialism, MAS) well ahead of its rivals. This complicates the efforts of Bolivia’s right-wing interim administration to prevent the party’s return to government. Meanwhile a paper by researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has questioned the veracity of the Organization of American States (OAS) report that led to the aborting of October’s elections and the ouster of former President Evo Morales. MIT has distanced itself from the paper, saying the researchers involved were not working on its behalf but rather as contractors for the Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR). Impacts The report questioning the fraud findings could undermine faith in the OAS as a neutral observer, whether it is substantiated or not. The MAS is unlikely to retain its majority in the Legislative Assembly. Difficult economic choices will test the eventual election victor.

Controversial secretary-general seeks new OAS term

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Secretary General ◽  
Consensus Building ◽  
Organization Of American States ◽  
Active Response ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Success ◽  
American States

Subject Election of a new Organization of American States secretary-general. Significance Luis Almagro is standing for re-election as secretary-general of the Organization of American States (OAS). Under his mandate, the OAS has shifted from consensus-building in favour of hostility towards left-of-centre governments in Latin America. His candidacy is being challenged by two other candidates, one from Ecuador and one from Peru, who point to his divisive impact on the organisation. Impacts Caracas will seek to encourage opposition to Almagro among states over which it still exercises some influence. An Almagro victory would be seen as a policy success for Washington. Divisions will remain among member states as to whether the OAS should endorse a more active response in seeking to remove Maduro.

El Salvador crime and corruption gains to help Bukele

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
El Salvador ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
Organization Of American States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
American States ◽  
The Creation

Subject Bukele successes. Significance Presdent Nayib Bukele this month announced the creation of a new anti-corruption body, backed by the Organization of American States (OAS). Just days earlier the president highlighted improvements in the country’s murder rates, which he linked to the implementation of his new security initiative. Impacts The CICIES may prompt donors such as the United States, which condition funding on anti-corruption progress, to release some aid. The CICIES launch will compound anger in Guatemala, where the closure of the CICIG has proven deeply unpopular with the public. Improved security may reap economic benefits, but only if investors believe the downward trend is established.

Constituent assembly plan compounds Venezuela crisis

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Minister ◽  
External Pressure ◽  
Organization Of American States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Constituent Assembly ◽  
American States ◽  
Regional Organisations

Significance In response to anti-government demonstrations, President Nicolas Maduro on May 1 unveiled plans to convene a national constituent assembly to advance state reforms and a national peace ‘agenda’. The Organization of American States (OAS) has been critical of Maduro's handling of the crisis prompting Foreign Minister Delcy Rodriguez to announce on April 26 that Venezuela will be leaving the regional body. Impacts The constituent assembly proposal will spur further MUD street mobilisation and enhance the unity and cohesion of the opposition alliance. Caracas will be pro-active in pursuing supportive statements from other regional organisations to offset the influence of the OAS. There will be sustained internal and external pressure for an election timetable.

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