Centrist grand coalition likely in the Netherlands

Significance The results show a waning interest in the right-wing populist Freedom Party (PVV), which until mid-February was leading the polls. The PVV had been an unlikely candidate to enter government -- even if it had emerged as the strongest party -- as no other political party was willing to cooperate with it. However, the significance of the vote lies in the fact that it could reflect wider trends in Europe ahead of the French and German elections taking place later this year. Impacts The election provided a significant boost to the Green Left Party with its up-and-coming young leader Jesse Klaver. The PvdA, Rutte's coalition partner, alienated voters with its support for unpopular austerity measures. Senior party members have come forward suggesting that the PvdA should dissolve. Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem may have to stand down as Eurogroup president if his PvdA is not involved in the new coalition. The election results have been welcomed by most European countries and are widely regarded as an anti-populist pro-Europe stance.

2021 ◽  
Vol 27 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-29
Author(s):  
Boris Guseletov

The article examines the results of the parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, held on March 15-17, 2021. It compares the results of the leading political parties in the elections of 2017 and 2021, and describes all the leading Dutch political parties that were represented in parliament in the period from 2017 to 2021. The results of the activities of the government headed by the leader of the “People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy” M. Rutte, formed following the results of the 2017 elections, are presented. The reasons for the resignation of this government, which took place on the eve of the elections, and its impact on the course of the election campaign are revealed. It was noted how the coronavirus pandemic and the government’s actions to overcome its consequences affected the course and results of the election campaign. The activity of the main opposition parties in this country is evaluated: the right-wing Eurosceptic Freedom Party of Wilders, the center-left Labor Party and others. The course of the election campaign and its main topics, as well as the new political parties that were elected to the parliament as a result of these elections, are considered. The positions of the country’s leading political parties on their possible participation in the new government coalition are shown. The state of Russian-Dutch relations is analyzed. A forecast is given of how the election results will affect the formation of the new government of this country and the political, trade and economic relations between Russia and the Netherlands.


Significance The recent state elections demonstrate that German voting patterns are becoming increasingly flexible. The right-wing populist Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) achieved double-digit results in all three elections and became the second-strongest party in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The election results also increase the intra-party pressure on Merkel and highlight the tensions within the coalition, but at the moment, neither a radical change in Merkel's refugee policies nor early federal elections seem likely. Impacts In Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Greens will form a coalition government with the weakened CDU. In Rhineland-Palatinate, a 'traffic light coalition' (SPD, Liberal Democrats and Greens) is the most likely outcome. In Saxony-Anhalt, a 'Kenya coalition' (CDU, SPD and Greens) is the only politically feasible option. In two states a CDU-SPD coalition would not have a sufficient majority to govern, which is a first in the Federal Republic's history.


Significance The results have destabilised relations within the alliance involving the League, Brothers of Italy (FdI) and Forza Italia (FI), and increased speculation that FI may ally with moderate parties instead. The election results reflect the popularity of Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s government of national unity. Impacts The stability of Draghi’s government may boost Italy’s chances of influencing reforms to the EU’s fiscal policy framework. The election result reflects the wider recovery in business confidence already evidenced in Italy. Based on polling trends, Giorgia Meloni’s FdI is in a strong position to be the leading populist party after the next election. Meloni’s rise could increase tensions between FdI and the League, as the latter is accustomed to being the dominant party in the polls.


2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Randy Besco

Discriminatory attitudes towards ethnic minorities are widespread, and a common presumption is that ethnic minority candidates suffer electorally as a result. However, some research has shown that little electoral discrimination occurs, because ethnic minority candidates tend to run for parties of the left, while voters with negative attitudes towards minorities are concentrated on the right. This study shows that when ethnic minority candidates do run for right-wing parties they suffer the brunt of electoral discrimination, while those on the left are insulated. To do so it leverages two methods: a candidate experiment and a difference-in-difference analysis of candidate demographic data and aggregate election results. An ideological stereotyping mechanism is also tested, but there is little evidence that right-wing voters reject ethnic minority candidates because they are viewed as left-leaning.


Significance The three main parties -- the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP), the centrist Liberals, and the right-wing Conservatives -- are nearly tied in national voter intention polls. While the effects of Canada's first-past-the-post voting system appear to give the Conservatives and the NDP better chances at winning a plurality of seats in parliament, all three parties have a chance at victory, an unprecedented situation in Canadian history. Impacts The death of refugee Alan Kurdi has resulted in all three parties promising to expand Canada's acceptance of refugees from Iraq and Syria. The longer campaign could result in a doubling of the election's cost to the taxpayer. Both the NDP and the Liberals have promised that this will be the final election using the first-past-the-post system.


Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.


Significance The draft law was presented by Labour Minister Myriam El Khomry in late February and aims at introducing more flexibility in France's rigid labour market. The government has led a promotional campaign in favour of the reform, against a backdrop of opposition from trade unions, students and public opinion. Valls has watered down the most controversial proposals but even in its current state the proposed reform would be a significant step forward. Impacts The government will need to assemble a diverse majority spanning the centre-left to the centre-right in order to pass the draft law by July. Reformist trade unions support the revised version of the law but more militant unions maintain their opposition. The right wing and the main employer association oppose the revised draft which they consider not favourable enough to companies.


Significance The 4 million votes secured by Ivan Duque of the Democratic Centre (CD) in a presidential primary, held the same day, affirmed that group as the country’s leading electoral force. Right-leaning parties are, at best, ambivalent about the country’s peace processes, but the strengthening of their position was not sufficiently conclusive to suggest a reversal of the peace process under the next Congress. Impacts No significant shift away from Colombia’s pro-investment policies is likely in 2018. The FARC’s poor election results will provide little incentive for the ELN to follow them down the path of democratic politics. The crisis in neighbouring Venezuela, and the wave of migrants that it has caused, are likely to push Colombian voters further to the right.


Subject Poland’s isolation over EU labour reform. Significance "They will not break us," Prime Minister Beata Szydlo said in a recent interview for a right-wing weekly. She was referring to Poland’s opposition to EU migration policy and more generally to a broader set of issues that divide the right-wing government in Warsaw from its EU partners. Szydlo's belligerent rhetoric plays well with domestic audiences but conceals Poland’s inability to build alliances and protect its interests. These weaknesses have become apparent during recent talks on reforming the EU’s Posted Workers Directive. Impacts New regulations may erode the competitive advantage of Polish firms that regularly post workers to western EU member states. The Polish budget would lose posted workers’ social insurance contributions, a loss estimated as worth up to 275 million dollars a month. Poland’s reputation as a regional spokesman for the interests of CEE member states may be undermined.


Significance The most recent preliminary official figures give President Evo Morales a clear lead over his main rival, Carlos Mesa, but it remains unclear whether that lead will be sufficient to avoid a second round, which Mesa would be well-placed to win. Impacts A recount of votes may be required, possibly overseen by the Organization of American States. International criticism of the conduct of the elections will endure, especially from right-wing governments in the Americas. A deteriorating economic situation is likely to beset whoever takes office in January.


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