Fiscal package aims to ease Argentina default fears

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Global Environment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Monetary Expansion ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Fiscal Imbalance ◽  
The Government

Subject Fiscal and debt stabilisation plans. Significance Despite fears that President Alberto Fernandez’s government would implement populist measures (“putting money in consumers’ pockets”) financed through monetary expansion, his first steps in office indicated that the government aims to reduce the fiscal imbalance, seeking to reach a rapid agreement with debt creditors and regain access to foreign finance. Impacts The fiscal package may generate savings of 1.0-1.5% of GDP, but only if the government can resist increased spending demands. The government will aim to return to twin fiscal and trade surpluses. The global environment may prove adverse, with lower commodity prices affecting foreign exchange and tax revenues.

Papua New Guinea economy set to 'muddle down'

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Papua New Guinea ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
New Guinea ◽  
Government Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
History Of ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The political and economic outlook for Papua New Guinea. Significance Despite combined GDP growth of nearly 20% over the last two years, the fall in commodity prices has exposed the downside risks in the government's economic strategy and seriously damaged its political credibility. A government cash crisis driven by a 20% fall in expected revenues in 2015 is fracturing the country's politics. Papua New Guinea (PNG) has a history of getting through crises, although this has usually involved a changing of the prime minister and an IMF programme. Impacts The government budget crisis and foreign exchange shortages will hurt growth in 2016. There is a risk of forced sale of foreign-owned businesses and land. Foreign exchange shortages may be the greatest risk to businesses.

Pandemic may drive new wealth taxes in Latin America

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Latin Americans ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Wealth Tax ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Tax Cuts

Significance The region’s current tax and spending policies redistribute very little. The COVID-19 pandemic brought a deep and persistent recession, despite new spending, tax cuts and monetary easing aimed at limiting the damage. In December, the government of Argentina, which was particularly hard hit, passed a temporary (and additional) net wealth tax on the very richest households. Impacts OECD-led transparency efforts offer the long-sought possibility of taxing the foreign assets of wealthy Latin Americans. The pandemic will increase both existing inequalities and the need for tax revenues to finance social welfare and stimulus spending. Efforts to strengthen tax collection more broadly will likely be undertaken by governments across the political spectrum.

Sri Lanka will try to manage debt without IMF help

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Special Drawing ◽  
External Stakeholders ◽  
Capital Outflows ◽  
The Government ◽  
Special Drawing Rights ◽  
India And China

Significance The government nevertheless remains under pressure from domestic critics and external stakeholders because of dwindling foreign exchange (forex) reserves and a growing debt crisis. Sri Lanka approached the IMF in early 2020 for macroeconomic support under the Fund’s Rapid Financing Instrument, but negotiations were shelved. Impacts The government will face increasing domestic pushback over its efforts to curb capital outflows. Although India and China will remain Sri Lanka’s most important partners, ties with Bangladesh will grow markedly. Sri Lanka should be able to access an allocation of IMF special drawing rights later this month.

Argentine elections will drive monetary expansion

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Close Monitoring ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Official Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
Nominal Anchor ◽  
Monetary Policy Framework

Subject The Central Bank's 2015 monetary programme. Significance The Central Bank's (BCRA) 2015 monetary programme indicates that the main features of the current monetary policy framework -- characterised by an expansionary bias, foreign exchange controls and close monitoring of the informal exchange market -- will continue this year. Impacts The government will prioritise exchange rate stability, at the expense of economic activity. The BCRA will continue using the official exchange rate as a nominal anchor. Foreign exchange controls may be extended to discourage devaluation expectations and to protect international reserves.

Smuggling will weigh on Tunisian economy and politics

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Coalition Government ◽  
Security Threats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Border Towns ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Government

Significance Essid has been working to form a new coalition government since general elections in late December. The new unity government will face tremendous pressure to jumpstart the economy, ensure political stability, and counter growing security threats. One major challenge -- cross-border smuggling -- poses a particularly serious threat to the new government. Smuggling costs the government some 615 million dollars per year, representing nearly 5% of total tax revenues, and undermines legitimate trade, further damaging growth. Impacts If the government fails to address smuggling, it will continue to lose critical revenue. Yet cracking down on smuggling will probably meet with considerable opposition -- particularly in rural areas and border towns. The new government's lack of a decisive mandate will impede reforms.

New party could shift Zimbabwe's political balance

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Investment ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Food Aid ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
People First ◽  
The Government ◽  
Ruling Party

Subject Political outlook in Zimbabwe. Significance On February 17, former Vice President Joice Mujuru formally launched a new party -- Zimbabwe People First (ZPF) -- to contest the 2018 election. Usually, such announcements are met with scepticism, given the failure of past attempts to unseat President Robert Mugabe's ZANU-PF party. However, unprecedented divisions within the ruling party mean ZPF may pose a real electoral challenge. Impacts The government's wholesale takeover of the Marange diamond fields could provide fresh opportunities for political patronage. New rules imposing taxes on around 40 imported basic foods means that the government could benefit financially from emergency food aid. Several G40 members could benefit from Zhuwao's stricter indigenisation rules, which bans foreign investment in 'protected' sectors. Such regulation, together with the drought and weak commodity prices, means GDP growth could fail to reach the World Bank's 1.5% forecast. Mugabe's lavish birthday celebrations will fuel public anger -- given the current food crisis -- possibly boosting opposition support.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

New Zimbabwean currency will struggle for traction

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Relations ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Exchange Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Reputation ◽  
Funding Programme ◽  
The Government ◽  
Recent Extension

Significance After a month of fuel protests and a violent military crackdown, Mangudya on February 20 effectively acknowledged Zimbabwean bond notes and electronic RTGS bank balances as part of a new currency scheme. The authorities' latest attempt to stabilise the parallel foreign exchange market, the RTGS dollar, will trade on a new interbank foreign exchange market on a ‘willing-buyer, willing seller’ basis. Impacts The recent extension of US sanctions will likely delay the prospect of a new IMF funding programme over the short term. The government will struggle to improve its international reputation despite a heightened public relations drive. Recent public protests are likely to have delayed the introduction of a brand-new national currency for now.

Sri Lanka will struggle to escape its debt trap

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sri Lanka ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Debt Problem ◽  
Sovereign Bonds ◽  
Outstanding Debt ◽  
The Government

Subject Sri Lanka's debt problem. Significance Sri Lanka late last month said it was planning to issue international sovereign bonds (ISBs) worth some 1.5 billion dollars, helping to repay loans soon to mature. The country’s gross outstanding debt stock rose to nearly 70% of GDP in 2018 from just under 40% in 2008. Impacts Debates around the presidential election due later this year will likely be dominated by security concerns rather than the economy. Political instability caused by rifts within the government will damage investor confidence in the country. Sri Lanka will step up efforts to attract tourists, hoping to sustain a key source of foreign exchange earnings.

scholarly journals Casino capitalism in the era of COVID-19: examining Macau’s pandemic response

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Loretta Lou
Keyword(s):  
Political Economy ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Gambling Industry ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Pandemic Response ◽  
The Government

Purpose This purpose of this paper is to explain Macau’s successful pandemic response through an analysis of its social, political and economic landscapes. In particular, it focusses on the economic relief brought by casino capitalism in this era of COVID-19. Design/methodology/approach As mobility is highly restricted during the coronavirus pandemic, digital technologies have become central to ongoing social science research. Thanks to videoconferencing programmes such as Zoom, Facetime and WhatsApp, the author was able to carry out virtual interviews with 13 local people from different sectors of Macau in July 2020. In addition to in-depth interviews, the author also undertook an extensive review of the Macau government’s pandemic policies. Findings This paper argues that the Macau government’s swift and effective coronavirus policies are deeply intertwined with the urban fabric and political economy of the city’s casino capitalism, which endowed the government with surplus funds and an infrastructure that enabled the implementation of an array of strict measures that few other countries could afford to subsidise. Factors that have led to Macau’s extraordinarily low rates of COVID-19 infections and deaths include: competent leadership and the public’s high compliance with mandatory health measures; the generous benefits and financial support for citizens and businesses; and the compulsory quarantine required of all incoming travellers, who are lodged in hotel rooms left empty when casino tourists stopped coming. All of these measures have been made possible by a political economy backed by the peculiarities of casino capitalism and its resultant tax revenues. Research limitations/implications Future research could compare the case of Macau with other small but affluent economies (ideally economies that do not depend on the gambling industry) to ascertain the role of casino capitalism in building up economic resilience. Originality/value Although previous studies tend to emphasise the negative impacts of casino capitalism, this paper shows how tax revenues and infrastructure from the gambling industry can make a contribution to the host society in times of crisis.

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