Moroccan phosphates sector may see virus silver lining
Subject Outlook for Moroccan phosphates exports. Significance Phosphate rock prices have slumped over the past year and have since stabilised at 72.50 dollars per tonne, down almost 30% since early 2019. Morocco, the second-largest producer of phosphates after China and home to the vast majority of global reserves, has felt the resulting squeeze. The national phosphates company Office Cherifien des Phosphates (OCP) Group has managed to offset some of this by accelerating its shift to downstream production of acid and fertilisers, but margins have likely been hit and the company may lack the scope to continue scaling up value-added production without further investment. Impacts OCP's ongoing work to consolidate its position in sub-Saharan Africa will also help support Moroccan export revenues. At current extraction rates, Morocco may be the only major producing country with phosphate reserves to last beyond 50 years. Rabat's drive to increase revenue from mining other minerals and metals is likely to yield only modest results. A diplomatic shift over the status of Western Sahara (and thus key OCP mining locations) is unlikely.