COVID-19 crisis will interrupt Dominican GDP growth

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Target Range ◽  
Caribbean Region ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financing Gap ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government

Subject The Dominican Republic and COVID-19. Significance Unlike much of the Latin America/Caribbean region, the Dominican Republic faces the COVID-19 pandemic from a position of macroeconomic strength and stability. Growth lost pace in 2019 but was still robust at 5.1%, while inflation stayed within the Central Bank target range, at 3.7%. The banking sector remains well capitalised with non-performing loans at low levels (1.6%) at the end of last year. Impacts If the financing gap persists, the government will seek further credit in the markets, despite having to bear increasing yields. The general election will probably be postponed beyond July, with opposition candidate Luis Abinader likely to remain the frontrunner. An ongoing exodus of Haitians will continue, with unscreened incomers increasing contagion risks in Haiti.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

Bangladesh risks growth by not confronting bad debt

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Potential Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Court ◽  
The Government ◽  
Bad Debt

Subject Bad debt in Bangladesh's banking sector. Significance The High Court last month stayed until June 23 a circular issued by the Bangladesh Bank, the central bank, that appeared to benefit borrowers who had defaulted on loans from the country's banking system. Meanwhile, Bangladesh registered 7.9% GDP growth in the fiscal year ending June 2018. Impacts The government will dismiss worries about a potential growth slowdown, pointing to forecast GDP growth of 8.1% in 2018/19. The Bangladesh Bank's circular would hurt banks already burdened with losses because of provisioning against bad debt. Banks may try to reduce their exposure to single borrowers.

Spain could become more active in foreign relations

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Restrictive Trade ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Spain’s foreign policy. Significance Since centre-right Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s coming to power in 2011, foreign relations have played a secondary role in Spanish politics. The government has focused on strengthening its economic position within the EU, generally supporting Germany’s views. Its political and economic influence in other parts of the world such as Latin America has diminished significantly. Impacts Spain’s favourable economic prospects and high GDP growth rates may help the country improve its position within the EU. Passing the 2017 budget -- with the help of smaller parties -- later this year will boost the minority government’s credibility. Rajoy is benefiting from the Socialist Party’s internal divisions. The Ibero-American summits could become more relevant if Trump imposes more restrictive trade policies.

Pandemic may drive new wealth taxes in Latin America

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Social Welfare ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Latin Americans ◽  
Tax Revenues ◽  
Wealth Tax ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Tax Cuts

Significance The region’s current tax and spending policies redistribute very little. The COVID-19 pandemic brought a deep and persistent recession, despite new spending, tax cuts and monetary easing aimed at limiting the damage. In December, the government of Argentina, which was particularly hard hit, passed a temporary (and additional) net wealth tax on the very richest households. Impacts OECD-led transparency efforts offer the long-sought possibility of taxing the foreign assets of wealthy Latin Americans. The pandemic will increase both existing inequalities and the need for tax revenues to finance social welfare and stimulus spending. Efforts to strengthen tax collection more broadly will likely be undertaken by governments across the political spectrum.

Guatemala’s economy on the way to recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Latin America ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Way

Significance National GDP nevertheless contracted by just 1.5% in 2020 -- less than almost any other country in Latin America. Resilient remittances and exports, coupled with unprecedented policy support, have mitigated the effects of the pandemic and subsequent containment measures, leaving the country better placed for recovery than its neighbours. Impacts Enduring poverty, inequality and violent crime, and the impacts of accelerating climate change, will drive further migration from Guatemala. The government will pursue banking law reforms, to reduce risks to financial activities in the post-pandemic business environment. Infighting and corruption scandals will hinder the opposition's ability to benefit from the decline of the president's popularity.

Dominican Republic tourism begins fragile recovery

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Dominican Republic ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Health Minister ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Investment Programme

Significance Accounting directly and indirectly for 16-17% of GDP in 2019, tourism is a major plank of the Dominican economy and will be key to broader economic recovery in 2021. With that in mind, the government is striving to encourage visitors back as soon as possible. Impacts Cruises are less important to the Dominican Republic than some smaller islands, but the slow recovery of that sector will be a blow. The president plans to launch an infrastructure investment programme later this year to help boost employment. The dismissal of Health Minister Plutarco Arias over alleged procurement irregularities may undermine government anti-corruption pledges.

scholarly journals Influence of economic freedom and its subcomponents on risk-taking behavior

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 335-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafik Harkati ◽  
Syed Musa Alhabshi ◽  
Salina Kassim
Keyword(s):  
Risk Taking ◽  
Economic Freedom ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Freedom Index ◽  
Risk Taking Behavior ◽  
The Government ◽  
Conventional Banks

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of economic freedom and six relevant subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks in the Malaysian dual banking system. It also aims to make a comparative analysis between Islamic and conventional banks operating in this dual banking sector. Moreover, the study is an effort to enrich the existing literature by presenting empirical evidence on the argument that the risk-taking behavior of the two types of banks is indistinguishable given that they operate in the same regulatory environment. Design/methodology/approach Secondary data of all banks operating in the Malaysian banking sector are collected from FitchConnect database, in addition to the economic freedom index from Foundation Heritage for the period 2011–2017. Generalized least squares technique is employed to estimate the influence of economic freedom and the six relevant subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks. Findings The level of economic freedom influenced risk-taking behavior within the banking sector as a whole, conventional and Islamic banking sectors negatively during the study period (2011–2017). Risk-taking behavior of conventional and Islamic banks is similar. However, conventional banks turn to be less influenced by economic freedom level as compared to Islamic banks. Practical implications The government and regulators may benefit from the results by rethinking and setting the best economic freedom index that better serves the stability of the banking system, and lessens banks’ risk-taking inclination. Originality/value To the present time, this paper is thought to be of a significant contribution. Given the argument that Islamic and conventional banks behave in the same way. This is one of the first attempts to address this issue in light of the influence of economic freedom and six subcomponents of it on the risk-taking behavior of banks operating in a dual banking system.

Fast growth may avert foreign banks' exit from Hungary

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Foreign Banks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Government Relations ◽  
Local Currency ◽  
Wait And See ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for the banking sector. Significance The government is buying a 30% stake in the Austrian lender Erste Bank under a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The MoU signifies a volte-face by Prime Minister Viktor Orban, whose relationship with foreign-owned banks has been fraught with difficulties since the imposition of a levy on financial institutions in 2010 that drove down earnings and achieved notoriety as one of the highest taxes of its kind in Europe. The government has pledged to reduce the bank tax during 2016-19. Impacts The MoU may not redefine government relations with foreign banks, but could mean more activity on the market by institutional investors. Banks will clean up balance sheets, adopting a 'wait and see' strategy until FX debt relief peters out and the bank tax starts to fall. A return to profitability is unlikely before 2016; much depends on an uptake in corporate and household loans denominated in local currency.

Portuguese coalition parties may clash over austerity

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Structural Funds ◽  
The Government

Significance This reflects the significant risks lying ahead for the government despite the European Council's decision on August 9 to waive fines for Portugal over its excessive budget deficit in 2015. Impacts The European Commission retains the possibility of suspending structural funds for Portugal. The decision to waive the fine could undermine the credibility of EU rules in the long term. Slower economic growth and the weak banking sector could lead to Portugal being downgraded by rating agencies.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

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