Spain could become more active in foreign relations

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Restrictive Trade ◽  
The World ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Spain’s foreign policy. Significance Since centre-right Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s coming to power in 2011, foreign relations have played a secondary role in Spanish politics. The government has focused on strengthening its economic position within the EU, generally supporting Germany’s views. Its political and economic influence in other parts of the world such as Latin America has diminished significantly. Impacts Spain’s favourable economic prospects and high GDP growth rates may help the country improve its position within the EU. Passing the 2017 budget -- with the help of smaller parties -- later this year will boost the minority government’s credibility. Rajoy is benefiting from the Socialist Party’s internal divisions. The Ibero-American summits could become more relevant if Trump imposes more restrictive trade policies.

Slovenia will remain polarised, whatever Jansa’s fate

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
European Council ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Council Presidency ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government led by the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) is under mounting pressure as Slovenia prepares to take over the European Council presidency. This is due mainly to hostility in parliament and society to Prime Minister Janez Jansa, who promotes a popular but divisive form of national conservatism. Impacts A successful no-confidence vote in the government followed by early elections would complicate Slovenia’s handling of its EU presidency. The fall of the current government and its replacement by the centre-left would improve Slovenia’s relations with the EU and United States. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban would lose an ally at EU level if Jansa lost office.

Invalid Hungarian referendum will gain Orban little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Constitutional Amendments ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Popular Support ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The Hungarian government's anti-immigration stance. Significance Prime Minister Viktor Orban and his government have been campaigning against the wave of migrants seeking refuge in Europe, and the EU's handling of the resulting crisis. The government hoped a referendum on October 2 would reject EU settlement of non-Hungarians in Hungary without parliament's consent. With a turnout of less than 50%, the referendum is null and void. Orban's Fidesz party nevertheless claimed victory, as 98.6% of those who cast a valid vote opposed relocation. Impacts The opposition to Fidesz will be able to frame the referendum as its first victory since 2010 and try to build unity on that basis. Fidesz will be unable to extend its popular support on the basis of these results. The EU is unlikely to react forcefully to constitutional amendments in Hungary, given Brexit and elections in France and Germany.

Insecurity and drought undermine Madagascar president

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Southern African Development Community ◽  
Political Elite ◽  
The Political ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
African Development ◽  
The Government

Significance Rifts within the political elite are deepening, evidenced by the departure of former Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo -- and his cabinet -- last month. However, the installation of a new administration does not portend stability. Impacts The central bank's decision to cut its benchmark interest rate to 8.3% from 8.7% will facilitate borrowing by firms and households. This is unlikely to boost GDP growth given the countervailing effects of political volatility and low commodity prices. The UN secretary general's appeal (on an official trip earlier this month) for the government to tackle graft is unlikely to be heeded. If Madagascar experiences another coup, the Southern African Development Community bloc will likely expel it -- again.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

Growth failure leaves governing French left vulnerable

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Growth Failure ◽  
National Front ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
Regional Elections ◽  
The Eu

Significance The government's reforms have failed to deliver growth and lower employment as it had hoped. This leaves it poorly placed before December's regional elections and the 2017 presidential poll. Against a background of economic weakness, Europe's migrant crisis is boosting the National Front (FN) and its leader Marine Le Pen. Impacts Sarkozy may beat former Prime Minister Alain Juppe in the main centre-right party primary. Sarkozy may then beat President Francois Hollande in the first presidential round, and Marine Le Pen in the second. Under pressure from the right, the government is unlikely to accept further refugees beyond the proposed EU quota. France's continued economic debility will weaken its voice in the EU, and exacerbate strains with Germany.

Germany’s trade surplus benefits the euro-area

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Trade Surplus ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Eu

Subject Germany’s trade surplus. Significance Germany runs a large trade surplus with other euro-area countries and the rest of the world. Critics have argued that wages in Germany have not increased enough in recent years and that the country should boost domestic demand. However, trade and wage developments with other euro-area countries show that such criticism is largely misguided. Impacts Germany’s offshoring of production processes helps boost GDP growth in countries such as Slovakia and the Czech Republic. Creating a more innovation-friendly environment and investing in R&D would lift the long-term growth potential of the euro-area. Completing the digital single market could contribute to more innovation across the EU.

UK corruption scandal opens door for the opposition

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Public Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Reputation ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Government ◽  
Spending Cuts ◽  
The Eu

Significance These scandals are serious for the government because they reflect poorly on dozens of Conservative MPs as well as Prime Minister Boris Johnson. In addition to undermining the government’s public support, they have also damaged Johnson’s support among party colleagues. Impacts Anger towards the government could grow in poorer regions as tax rises and spending cuts are gradually introduced. The persistence of corruption stories threatens to further damage the United Kingdom’s international reputation. Domestic pressures and ‘Brexit fatigue’ may ultimately prevent London from triggering a trade war with the EU.

Exit talks may not clarify future UK-EU relationship

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Member State ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance Prime Minister Theresa May has committed herself to triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. No member state has made use of Article 50 and there is thus much uncertainty about what leaving and, more specifically, triggering Article 50 might involve. Impacts May's timetable could be derailed if the Supreme Court decides that the government cannot invoke Article 50 without parliamentary approval. The EU is likely to maintain its firm stance and refuse to engage in any negotiations before Article 50 is triggered. The continued uncertainty over the terms of Brexit is likely to hit business confidence and could deter investments.

Italy’s Renzi will win weak endorsement in party vote

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
General Election ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Significance Although former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is confident of winning, the PD, condemned after the 2013 general election to govern Italy without a majority, has faced growing problems of cohesion and electoral credibility since last December’s referendum defeat. Impacts Local elections in June will indicate electoral sentiment towards the PD and M5S ahead of the general election in early 2018. Continued weak economic performance is fuelling populist sentiment and tying government hands. Tensions with the EU could increase when the government presents its 2018 budget later this year.

The Netherlands’ Rutte may be losing grip on power

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Party Government ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Outlook for the Dutch government. Significance The popularity of Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s four-party government has decreased in recent months amid workers’ protests and controversy over parts of its new climate deal. Having lost its majority in both houses, the government will struggle to pass legislation in order to strengthen its track record ahead of the 2021 election unless it compromises with the opposition, which will likely alienate core supporters. Impacts The priority given to social spending will likely mean the Netherlands will not reach the NATO goal of 2% of GDP defence spending by 2025. Climate legislation is now far more likely to be contested and amended in parliament, as it cannot be passed without opposition parties. Rutte’s departure would be an important loss for the EU, given his strong support for EU cooperation and negotiating skills.

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