US China policy seeks deliberate decoupling

Subject US economic policy to China. Significance US Attorney General William Barr yesterday accused US companies of impeding the Trump administration’s China policy by putting profit ahead of US national interest. The president has rooted his economic policy towards China in his 'America First' doctrine and great-power-rivalry worldview. The administration aims to decouple the two economies to slow China's development, which draws heavily if decreasingly on US intellectual property. Impacts National development ambitions will compel China to continue to acquire US technology by whatever means available. Innovations by Chinese firms will shake the assumption of many in the United States that US technological superiority is unsurpassable. US firms in China will balance the costs of failing to comply with Chinese government requests with US reputational censure if they do.

Significance Microsoft attributed the first hack exploiting these flaws to a Chinese state-sponsored group. These flaws were subsequently leaked online, and organisations that have failed to install software patches continue to be targeted. Over 30,000 systems have already been compromised in the United States alone, further straining US-China ties. Impacts The ubiquity of US technology will make vulnerabilities in US software a wider cybersecurity risk. Developing indigenous IT software and hardware will be unfeasible for most countries as rifts over 5G have exposed. Although tarnished, Microsoft will benefit from having few competitors in the business and domestic use software market.


Author(s):  
Amy C. Offner

This chapter focuses on John M. Hunter, the thirty-nine-year-old Illinois native who spoke as director of Colombia's first economic research center and addressed readers of one of Colombia's premier journals of economic research, the Revista del Banco de la República. It also talks about economics in Latin America. During the years after 1945, Colombian universities established freestanding economics programs where none had existed before. There had been men called economists in Colombia for decades; they were brilliant lawyers, engineers, businessmen, and politicians who made national economic policy and taught occasional courses in political economy on the side. But the crisis of the 1930s had inspired a new regard for economic expertise as a specialized form of knowledge, and Colombians set out to create a new kind of economist to steer the state. The invention of economics as an independent discipline, a nineteenth-century process in the United States and much of Europe, was thus a twentieth-century phenomenon in Latin America, born of new visions of national development and spearheaded by renowned men in business and government.


Significance Canada-US ties have seen some friction under President Donald Trump; Biden’s administration is an opportunity for calmer ties. The change of president in the United States will have implications for Canada’s economy, trade, environmental policy and national security, and could help bolster Canada as a global middle power. Impacts Bay Street (Canada’s Wall Street) will monitor Biden’s economic policy appointees closely. Trudeau’s government will lobby Biden to support the Keystone XL pipeline. Canada will support Washington on the world stage, including as Biden returns Washington to international bodies. Trudeau could call an early election in 2021, though cancellation of Keystone XL would limit his support in Alberta.


Significance Shaping technical standards is a key battleground in global competition for technological leadership. Where once the United States and Europe were dominant, China has greatly strengthened its position and now seeks become a premier purveyor of technical standards globally. Impacts Technical standards development will become more central to China's industrial strategy. International standard-setting will increasingly fall victim to great-power rivalry between the United States and China. China's standardisation efforts will be most visible in emerging digital fields such as 5G, AI and quantum communications. Traditional sectors such as energy, transport, medicine, agriculture and even accounting and finance will see proactive Chinese efforts.


Subject China's position on blockchain and crytocurrencies. Significance After being left behind (mainly by the United States) on critical technologies such as microprocessor design, telecommunication and space engineering, the current Chinese leadership regards technological innovation as a top national priority. In particular, the development of the distributed ledger technology, blockchain, as a cross-industry transformative platform has been written into China’s 13th Five-Year Plan covering 2016-20. Impacts Blockchain technology will be applied to fields such as gaming, global online payments, digital advertising and public service management. The decentralised nature of cryptocurrencies impedes effective regulation. The Chinese government will remain deeply divided on the issue of cryptocurrencies. The United States will probably legalise cryptocurrency exchanges and ICOs soon, followed by Singapore and China.


Significance These concerns extend far beyond the United States, with several countries conducting similar investigations, albeit using different approaches. Impacts Big tech will exploit US ‘digital nationalism’ by arguing that new regulations would weaken US technology vis-à-vis its Chinese rivals. The EU will remain the global regulatory leader for the tech sector, even though this will damage transatlantic relations. Regulations that enable smaller and new firms to access data held by ‘big tech’ will be bitterly contested.


Significance South-east Asia provides the Kremlin opportunities to advance its ‘great power’ interests. Meanwhile, the region remains a key theatre for the United States and China to play out their growing rivalry. Impacts Russia may try to sell nuclear power plants to the region, although it would face strong competition from other countries. Military action by Russia against Ukraine would hurt Moscow’s image in South-east Asia but no regional state would respond with sanctions. Russia-China relations will strengthen but the two countries will stop short of agreeing a formal political-military alliance.


Subject The impacts of the arrest of Huawei's CFO in Canada. Significance Meng Wanzhou, chief financial officer (CFO) of Chinese telecoms equipment maker Huawei, was arrested while transiting at Vancouver airport on December 1, and faces extradition to the United States on charges related to Huawei’s alleged violations of US sanctions against Iran. This arrest will have serious consequences for Huawei's global operations and for China's relations with the United States and Canada. Impacts The case will encourage third countries to move away from Huawei components -- if they can afford to. Overseas suppliers and customers too may decide that the political risk of relying on Huawei is too high. This case will advance the 'de-coupling' of the Chinese and US technology sectors.


Significance The Arctic memorandum signals greater concern in the US defence community and Congress over rising great-power competition in the region. Russia has become more assertive militarily, while China is seeking greater presence, including in 2018 expressing interest in building airfields in Greenland. Impacts Trump’s scepticism about NATO will make coordinating with allies over the Arctic more difficult. China and the United States will both seek access to Arctic natural resources. Greater US focus on the Arctic could cause tensions with Canada over the Northwest Passage.


Author(s):  
Michelle Murray

How can established powers manage the peaceful rise of new great powers? With The Struggle for Recognition in International Relations, the author offers a new answer to this perennial question in international relations, arguing that power transitions are principally social phenomena whereby rising powers struggle to obtain recognition of their identity as a great power. At the center of great power identity formation is the acquisition of particular symbolic capabilities—such as battlesheips, aircraft carriers, or nuclear weapons—that are representative of great power status and that allow rising powers to experience their uncertain social status as a brute fact. When a rising power is recognized, this power acquisition is considered legitimate and its status in the international order secured, leading to a peaceful power transition. If a rising power is misrecognized, its assertive foreign policy is perceived to be for revisionist purposes, which must be contained by the established powers. Revisionism—rather than the product of a material power structure that encourages aggression or domestic political struggles—is a social construct that emerges through a rising power’s social interactions with the established powers as it attempts to gain recognition of its identity. The question of peaceful power transition has taken on increased salience in recent years with the emergence of China as an economic and military rival of the United States. Highlighting the social dynamics of power transitions, this book offers a powerful new framework through which to understand the rise of China and how the United States can facilitate its peaceful rise.


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