New Uruguay government's COVID-19 boost will not last

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
The Impact

Significance The contraction preceded the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. The large inherited fiscal deficit and rising debt-to-GDP ratio are forcing the new government to take unpopular measures to strengthen public accounts. However, its apparent success in combating the pandemic has given it strong approval ratings that will help facilitate reforms. Impacts Reform plans will seek to maintain Uruguay’s investment grade rating. Rising poverty and unemployment may compromise efforts to cut public spending. Splits in the governing coalition may appear ahead of September's local elections.

Coalition puts Vazquez on the back foot in Uruguay

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Budget ◽  
Approval Ratings ◽  
Negative Sentiment ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's economic outlook. Significance The national budget presented to Congress by President Tabare Vazquez on August 31 points to a deteriorating economy. Nevertheless, it increases public spending levels to comply at least partially with pre-election promises and wage demands by teachers. Impacts Vazquez's still high approval ratings may decline if he cannot deliver rapidly on campaign promises. Investment promises will be hard to sustain, given the inflexibility of most earmarked budget spending. Negative sentiment may encourage coalition partners and union sectors to rebel against unpopular measures to shrink the fiscal deficit.

scholarly journals Factors affecting political participation (Jordanian universities students' voting: field study 2017-2018)

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Soud Alelaimat
Keyword(s):  
Political Participation ◽  
University Students ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Family Income ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Regional Affiliation

Purpose This study aims to identify the factors affecting the political participation of Jordanian university students, especially their voting in national and local elections. The study examines the impact of gender, age, family income and regional affiliation that represent important social and economic factors affecting political participation on the voting of Jordanian university students. Design/methodology/approach Quantitative research method was used in this study. The study population contained three Jordanian universities representing the various segments of the Jordanian society: Al-Al Bayt University (Northern Region), Jordanian University (Central Region) and Mu'tah University (Southern Region). The study relied on a purposive sample of 900 students, 300 students per university (150 males and 150 females). The survey was conducted in the academic year 2018-2019. A questionnaire reviewed by two jurors (peer reviewers) was used to collect the data. Findings The study concluded that the gender, age, family income and regional affiliation factors affect the voting of Jordanian university students in national and local elections. The more the gender varies, the more the voting shifts in favor of males students. The more the age varies, the more the voting shifts in favor of older students. The more the family income varies, the more the voting shifts in favor of high-income students. The more the regional affiliation varies, the more the voting shifts in favor of Jordanians students. Originality/value This study is an approach to interpret the factors affecting voting of Jordanian university students, such as gender, age, family income and regional affiliation, which led to different voting in the national and local elections.

COVID-19 will shift Macron’s policy focus in France

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health Policy ◽  
Lower Order ◽  
Social Impact ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
State Ownership ◽  
Regional Inequality ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

Subject Macron's support. Significance Support for President Emmanuel Macron has declined in recent weeks. Reasons include the government’s mixed messaging concerning the use of face masks to combat COVID-19, as well as the impact of the disease in exposing regional inequality and under-investment in public services. The economic and social impact of the crisis could push Macron leftwards, favouring greater state ownership and public spending in the coming years. Impacts Macron could strengthen his support by considerably increasing infrastructure spending in more deprived regions. Macron will likely look for ways significantly to reform and strengthen the EU’s capacity in health policy. Some of Macron’s main EU initiatives, such as security and defence integration, may now become lower-order concerns.

Bahrain’s new premier faces difficult fiscal choices

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Bond Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rigorous Approach ◽  
The Impact

Significance Manama is seeking multiple means to adjust to the impact of the pandemic, publishing a two-year budget in November that targets a steady decline in the fiscal deficit. Although Bahrain secured improved terms for its most recent bond issue in September, its debt-to-GDP ratio is climbing, to almost 130% this year. Impacts The new premier may incline to a more rigorous approach towards subsidies, benefits and taxation, but is likely to proceed with caution. The death of the veteran prime minister, Khalifa bin Salman Al Khalifa, who was close to key donor Riyadh, could introduce a new variable. Investors’ future interest in Bahraini bonds will depend on their perceptions of Saudi Arabia as an effective guarantor.

Paraguay's COVID-19 response may lose initial lustre

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Bond Issue ◽  
Fiscal Responsibility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Timely Response ◽  
Global Spread ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of COVID-19. Significance In response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the government has ditched the Fiscal Responsibility Law (LRF), in force since 2015, at the same time launching a 1-billion-dollar bond issue in order to cover a surging fiscal deficit. Paraguay has won plaudits for its timely response to the global spread of the pandemic with the introduction of a strict quarantine. Impacts Fiscal limits may continue to be breached as elections draw nearer. Business pressures will continue to tilt the balance towards increased borrowing rather than increased taxes. The government could lose the momentum gained from its COVID-19 response if related corruption allegations mount.

Local polls further tighten LDP's grip on Japan

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Gay Rights ◽  
The United States ◽  
Party Politics ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Female Representation ◽  
Local Initiative ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Policy ◽  
Mainstream Party ◽  
The Impact

Subject The impact of recent local elections. Significance Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's state visit to the United States has focused attention on foreign and defence policy, eclipsing discussion of the nationwide local elections held on April 12 and 26 -- but those elections have consequences nevertheless. Impacts So few women were elected that the administration's modest target for female representation in local government is now almost unachievable. The results in Osaka support a local initiative to increase the city's autonomy; if this goes this ahead, other cities may follow. Victories for the Communist Party and a gay rights advocate suggest that frustration with mainstream party politics is rising again.

Economy will be key test for Thai junta in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Terrorist Attack ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Infrastructure Development ◽  
Military Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Primary Determinant ◽  
The Military ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Economic outlook. Significance The military government on December 1 approved action plans for infrastructure development worth 1.79 trillion baht (nearly 50 billion dollars) over the next five years. Boosting public spending is one of the junta's primary tools to boost GDP growth to 3.8% in 2016. Impacts Absent a major terrorist attack, tourism should recover modestly as the impact of the August Bangkok bombings declines. Private investment and demand are unlikely to recover significantly: Thai industry has surplus capacity and households are deeply indebted. Royal transition is the primary determinant of the junta's timetable for fresh elections.

Brazil's recession will be long and recovery tepid

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Household Consumption ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
High Inflation ◽  
Industrial Performance ◽  
Investment Grade ◽  
Financial Transactions ◽  
Key Industries ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Deep Recession

Significance Poor industrial performance adds to a long list of woes for an economy facing a deep recession, with increasing unemployment, high inflation and the risk of losing its hard-won investment grade rating. The combination of political and fiscal crises, together with the impact of a major corruption scandal engulfing key industries, has sapped confidence and deprived the economy of much-needed investment. Household consumption, which accounts for some 63% of GDP, has been affected by growing unemployment and high indebtedness levels. Impacts Government moves to increase the tax burden are on the cards. A return of the financial transactions tax (CPMF) is likely. An increasingly isolated government could seek to revert to expansionary fiscal policies.

Argentina reforms advance but carry political cost

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pension Reforms ◽  
Debt Default ◽  
Political Cost ◽  
The Government

Significance Following its strong results in the October mid-term election, the government has been pressing tax and pension reforms and a new fiscal accord with provincial governors; all except the pension reform must now go to the Senate. The measures may ease investor concerns that the government’s inability to reduce the fiscal deficit could end in a new debt default. Impacts The tax reform’s effect on high tax pressure will be moderate at best. Provinces’ ability to reduce distortive taxes will depend on their ability to cut public spending. Changes to the pension system will prove especially conflictive politically.

Thailand’s democratic deficit will dampen GDP growth

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Spending ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Democratic Deficit ◽  
National Strategy ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Domestic Activity ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Subject Outlook for the Thai economy. Significance Thailand's GDP grew by 3.9% last year, the most since 2012, and is expected to remain at around 4.0% this year, with stronger public spending supporting surging tourism and solid consumer spending. Thailand’s National Strategy aims to raise GDP growth to 5-6%, but this ambition faces rising short-term risks and longer-term structural impediments. Impacts Despite rising pressure on the government to hold elections, protests will not grow, limiting the impact on spending and tourism. Automobiles, semiconductors and other electronics -- key Thai exports -- will be hit by deteriorating US-China relations. The Bank of Thailand is one South-east Asian central bank keen to ‘normalise’ rates, but higher rates could dampen domestic activity.

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