Nigeria's north-west violence will intensify further
Significance Still largely driven by a combination of criminal banditry and 'farmer-herder' conflicts but with hints of growing jihadist group involvement, the scope of insecurity has surpassed any hope of a military-led pacification campaign. Meanwhile, the pandemic and various pressing political challenges have sapped the will of President Muhammadu Buhari’s government to find political solutions to the underlying drivers. Impacts A lack of political will, insufficient local intelligence and limited manpower will impede Operation Sahel Sanity’s effectiveness. Pervasive violence and displacement across the north-west will hamper regional anti-COVID efforts and create widespread economic distress. Eased domestic travel restrictions may lead to a surge in criminal attacks and kidnappings.