Draghi's government promises some hope for Italy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health Policy ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government

Significance Except for the far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI), all the main parties are part of the government, thus giving Draghi significant political support as he prepares to tackle Italy's unprecedented health and economic crises. Impacts A strong recovery could go a long way in reducing Eurosceptic sentiment in Italy. Draghi will have to manage disputes carefully between national and state authorities, who have much control over health policy. Social unrest would put pressure on the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League to withdraw support for Draghi.

French reform drive could slow down

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Public Sector ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Trade Disputes ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government

Subject France's reform agenda. Significance On September 7, yellow vest protests resumed in French cities, albeit in small numbers. It is, however, a warning for President Emmanuel Macron that social unrest is still a threat as the government seeks to drive ahead with stage two of its controversial reform agenda. Impacts While France is less exposed to trade disputes than such countries as Germany, recession in the latter would slow France's growth further. Reducing unemployment and avoiding a public sector backlash will be crucial for Macron’s expected re-election bid in 2022. Marine le Pen’s far-right National Rally remains Macron’s only significant political rival, which increases his chances of re-election. Domestic stability will enable Paris to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.

Italian stability hinges on M5S future and Salvini

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government ◽  
National Coalition ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Litmus Test

Subject Italian political outlook. Significance On January 26, Italy’s co-ruling Democratic Party (PD) defeated Matteo Salvini’s far-right League party by 51.4% to 43.6% in elections in Emilia Romagna, a prosperous region of northern Italy. In what was a litmus test for the fragile national coalition between PD and the Five Star Movement (M5S), the PD victory has reduced the risk of a government collapse. Impacts Risk-averse investors will remain cautious about Italy over the next year. Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte hopes the result will give the government the stability to cut taxes to boost private sector investment. Salvini’s support could decline if he continues to personalise the League’s election campaigns.

Brazil's Bolsonaro may see governability erode quickly

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Political Order ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Brazilian Politics

Significance Bolsonaro, a retired army captain, had 55.1% of valid votes against 44.9% for Fernando Haddad of the centre-left Worker’s Party (PT). His electoral triumph is a watershed moment in Brazilian politics: it not only puts an end to four consecutive PT victories, but also consolidates the fragmenting of the established political order after long, intertwined political and economic crises. Impacts Bolsonaro will surround himself with military aides. Risks to democracy seem moderate at present, but could escalate quickly in negative scenarios. Uncertainty will rise if the economy fails to gain steam in the short-to-medium term, leading to increased social unrest. Risks could arise if Bolsonaro’s relationship with Congress deteriorates to the point in which his ability to govern is seriously affected. Mercosur's future prospects as a bloc may be in doubt if the government focuses on bilateral trade deals.

Tensions between tiers of Bolivian government may grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Far Right ◽  
La Paz ◽  
Gubernatorial Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Modus Vivendi ◽  
El Alto ◽  
The Government

Significance The MAS’s national-level appeal tends not to translate into support in localised elections, and a poor choice of candidates, particularly in El Alto, has proved self-defeating. Impacts Second-round gubernatorial elections will probably take place in six out of nine departments. Camacho, a far-right businessman turned politician, will use his newly gained legitimacy to harry the government. The Arce government will seek a modus vivendi with opposition mayors such as those of La Paz and Cochabamba.

France’s Macron seeks to relaunch economic reforms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mandatory Vaccination

Significance Among those policies are measures targeted at youth unemployment and social care for older people, aimed at attracting left-wing support. Most importantly, Macron has committed to relaunching his controversial pension reforms, which triggered widespread social unrest in late 2019 and early 2020. Impacts Mandatory vaccination could trigger protests and legal action against the government. The centre-right Republicans could take support from Macron if they unite around a strong presidential candidate over the coming months. Macron will likely push for looser EU fiscal rules to facilitate more government spending beyond 2022.

Diversification will be hard amid Kazakhstan slowdown

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Single Industry ◽  
The Government

Significance The slowdown of 2015 continued through the first half of 2016 and may develop into recession by year-end. Depressed prices for Kazakhstan's main exports, inflation and falling consumer demand form a nexus of problems with which the government is struggling to cope. Impacts Oil production is set to rise to replenish the treasury, despite the OPEC plan for output caps. The search for new export markets will prompt the government to review existing and forge new ties. Social unrest is most likely in single-industry towns. The government will try to maintain current social spending levels to avoid unrest.

Azerbaijan looks to gas as oil's importance wanes

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Impact

Subject Impact of oil output cuts on Azerbaijan. Significance Azerbaijan has agreed to cut oil production in the first half of 2017 in support of the agreement reached by OPEC and non-OPEC states. It can ill afford a further loss of revenues, but the bigger picture is that oil production is already on a downward curve. Impacts To avoid social unrest, the government will need to allocate spending to mitigate the impact of rising prices. Fiscal pressures may rein in lavish spending on Russian military hardware. The government will maintain strong ties with Turkey as an export route and security ally.

ISG is unlikely to infiltrate refugee flows to Europe

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Middle East ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
State Group ◽  
Foreign Fighters ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Inter State ◽  
Security Crises

Subject ISG infiltration of refugee flows. Significance Refugee arrivals in Europe in 2016, large if not at 2015 levels, will put yet more pressure on the EU, which is already struggling to address economic crises, political polarisation and inter-state divisions on how to address security crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. Suspicions have grown that among the refugees are operatives of the Islamic State group (ISG). Impacts ISG's foreign fighters in Iraq and Syria will seek to expand their relationships with existing extremist networks in Europe. Speculation over ISG's presence within refugee flows will continue, especially as far-right parties continue to perform well in elections. The EU-Turkey deal may slow refugee flows, but the existing numbers of refugees will continue to attract suspicion from authorities.

Mining will stoke tensions in Ecuador

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Free Trade ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Local Politics ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mining Companies ◽  
Slow Development ◽  
The Government ◽  
Sectoral Development ◽  
The Eu

Significance Seven years after the government of President Rafael Correa signalled its intention to make mining one of the key pillars of its economic and political programme, the sector remains underdeveloped. Nonetheless, activity in the sector has increased, suggesting that changes the government has introduced in the last few years have started to take effect. Impacts The balance of political power in the next government is likely to remain broadly favourable for mining companies. Nevertheless, local politics and opposition will slow development and could even prevent it. The government will focus on 'responsible mining' in an effort to create broad-based political support for sectoral development. The government's links with financial institutions and its free trade deal with the EU will reassure mining firms of their investments.

Austrian centre-right coalition faces difficult future

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
The Government ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Significance The government consists largely of newcomers and politicians with dubious links to the far right. It embarks upon a five-year reform programme for Austria which is thin on detail but could lead to radical changes. Impacts A tougher stance on migrants and asylum seekers could foster a wider reluctance in some EU states to accept refugees. Major constitutional changes are unlikely as the government would need the support of the SPOe or the small Neos party. Any extreme right-wing tendencies will concern Brussels and Israel, which will keep a close eye on the government. Austria will be an unpredictable ally, sometimes siding with Macron and at other times favouring alliances with Eastern European countries. The SPOe’s loss of office could lead to changes in personnel and programmatic position.

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