Brazil's Bolsonaro may see governability erode quickly

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Political Order ◽  
Future Prospects ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Brazilian Politics

Significance Bolsonaro, a retired army captain, had 55.1% of valid votes against 44.9% for Fernando Haddad of the centre-left Worker’s Party (PT). His electoral triumph is a watershed moment in Brazilian politics: it not only puts an end to four consecutive PT victories, but also consolidates the fragmenting of the established political order after long, intertwined political and economic crises. Impacts Bolsonaro will surround himself with military aides. Risks to democracy seem moderate at present, but could escalate quickly in negative scenarios. Uncertainty will rise if the economy fails to gain steam in the short-to-medium term, leading to increased social unrest. Risks could arise if Bolsonaro’s relationship with Congress deteriorates to the point in which his ability to govern is seriously affected. Mercosur's future prospects as a bloc may be in doubt if the government focuses on bilateral trade deals.

Moreno will face significant headwinds in Ecuador

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Domestic Market ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Economic Stability ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Global Competitiveness ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trade Deals ◽  
Opening Phase

Subject The outlook for the new government. Significance President Lenin Moreno, who began his four-year term on May 24, faces several short- and medium-term challenges. His most immediate concern will be to restore growth and maintain economic stability. Containing the fallout from corruption scandals and improving public finances are other key challenges Moreno will face in the opening phase of his presidency. Impacts Dealing with the fallout from the Odebrecht scandal will be an early test of Moreno’s presidency. Exporters will press the government to secure new trade deals as dollar strength continues to hit their global competitiveness. Trade liberalisation will create new economic tensions as competition within the domestic market intensifies.

Draghi's government promises some hope for Italy

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Health Policy ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Economic Crises ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Five Star Movement ◽  
The Government

Significance Except for the far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI), all the main parties are part of the government, thus giving Draghi significant political support as he prepares to tackle Italy's unprecedented health and economic crises. Impacts A strong recovery could go a long way in reducing Eurosceptic sentiment in Italy. Draghi will have to manage disputes carefully between national and state authorities, who have much control over health policy. Social unrest would put pressure on the Five Star Movement (M5S) and the League to withdraw support for Draghi.

Oil will drive record Guyana growth again in 2022

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
National Development ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Plans ◽  
The Government ◽  
Wage Increases ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

Significance As in 2020 and 2021, this projected growth will be driven by the ongoing expansion of the oil and gas sector, and related investment and state revenues. These rising revenues will support the government’s ambitious national development plans, which include both increased social and infrastructure spending. Impacts The government will prioritise enhancing the oil and gas investment framework. Investment into joint oil and gas infrastructure with Suriname will benefit the growing oil industry in both countries. The expansionary fiscal policy may lead to a rise in inflation, leading to further calls for wage increases. In the medium term, strong growth in the oil and gas sector could lead to increased climate change activism in the country.

France’s Macron seeks to relaunch economic reforms

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Social Care ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Mandatory Vaccination

Significance Among those policies are measures targeted at youth unemployment and social care for older people, aimed at attracting left-wing support. Most importantly, Macron has committed to relaunching his controversial pension reforms, which triggered widespread social unrest in late 2019 and early 2020. Impacts Mandatory vaccination could trigger protests and legal action against the government. The centre-right Republicans could take support from Macron if they unite around a strong presidential candidate over the coming months. Macron will likely push for looser EU fiscal rules to facilitate more government spending beyond 2022.

Diversification will be hard amid Kazakhstan slowdown

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Consumer Demand ◽  
Oil Production ◽  
Social Spending ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Single Industry ◽  
The Government

Significance The slowdown of 2015 continued through the first half of 2016 and may develop into recession by year-end. Depressed prices for Kazakhstan's main exports, inflation and falling consumer demand form a nexus of problems with which the government is struggling to cope. Impacts Oil production is set to rise to replenish the treasury, despite the OPEC plan for output caps. The search for new export markets will prompt the government to review existing and forge new ties. Social unrest is most likely in single-industry towns. The government will try to maintain current social spending levels to avoid unrest.

Azerbaijan looks to gas as oil's importance wanes

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Oil Production ◽  
Strong Ties ◽  
Social Unrest ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Russian Military ◽  
The Impact

Subject Impact of oil output cuts on Azerbaijan. Significance Azerbaijan has agreed to cut oil production in the first half of 2017 in support of the agreement reached by OPEC and non-OPEC states. It can ill afford a further loss of revenues, but the bigger picture is that oil production is already on a downward curve. Impacts To avoid social unrest, the government will need to allocate spending to mitigate the impact of rising prices. Fiscal pressures may rein in lavish spending on Russian military hardware. The government will maintain strong ties with Turkey as an export route and security ally.

Israel and Turkey will reap benefits of reconciliation

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Humanitarian Aid ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type

Significance The deal, signed on June 28, puts an end to a long and bitter dispute between the two former strategic partners-turned-rivals that was ignited by the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010, when nine Turkish citizens were killed by Israeli commando forces who boarded the Gaza-bound aid ship in the Eastern Mediterranean. Impacts Bilateral trade will receive a boost, particularly in natural gas and related industries (for example, phosphates), tourism and shipping. Sales of defence-related items may resume in the medium term. Increased humanitarian aid to Gaza will help relieve domestic pressure on Hamas. The deal could unravel in the event of a new conflict between Hamas and Israel. US diplomatic efforts will play an important role in underpinning the agreement.

IMF loan conditions will worsen Egyptian discontent

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Market Exchange ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Dissent ◽  
Market Exchange Rate ◽  
Economic Collapse ◽  
The Government

Significance The government's struggle to stave off economic collapse has become increasingly frantic, as inflation has surged, the gap between the official and black market exchange rate has reached or exceeded 100%, and consumers have difficulty finding basics such as sugar and rice. Impacts Increased incidents of popular protests and political dissent reflect worsening economic conditions. Measures to be taken as part of the IMF deal, notably devaluation and further subsidy cuts, could exacerbate social and political tensions. Sisi will deflect some of the blame for the economic crisis onto the government and the central bank. If the government survives this crisis, the economy could recover in the medium term.

Higher Chile growth faces domestic and external risks

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Growing Economy ◽  
Fiscal Austerity ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance After four sluggish years, economic growth has been picking up steadily since mid-2017. However, as noted by Moody’s, medium-term prospects remain hampered by reliance on copper exports as, in the shorter term, has also been apparent in the context of the tariff war between the United States and China. Impacts According to the IMF, Chile will be the region’s fastest-growing economy this year, just ahead of Peru. The government will walk tightrope between a need for fiscal austerity and social demands. The tariff war will underscore the pressing need for diversification out of commodity exports.

Nigerian government's self-sufficiency goals will lag

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Small Scale ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Farming Practices ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Parboiled Rice ◽  
Self Sufficiency ◽  
Grey Market ◽  
The Government

Subject Nigerian self-sufficiency push. Significance The government has renewed efforts to prioritise food self-sufficiency and modernise farming practices. However, despite the impetus to drive sector growth and diversify away from oil, necessary wider structural reforms have stalled. Impacts Big-ticket programmes will attract most international focus despite the investment potential in Nigeria's mainly small-scale holdings. Growth in agricultural output will remain low in the medium term as inefficiencies persist and core inflation remains elevated. The government’s import ban may aid domestic production targets but will further encourage a flourishing ‘grey market’ (eg, parboiled rice).

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