Russian arms sales challenged by rivals and sanctions

Significance Selling mainly to non-US allies in Asia and North Africa, Russia has been the world's second-largest arms exporter after the United States for the last decade. The 2020 dip seems attributable to COVID-19 disruption having slowed deliveries to China and India. US sanctions might also have had some effect. Impacts The path of global recovery will influence Russian arms sales: lower-income countries are in a worse position than rich ones. New sales to Myanmar will signal Moscow's political support for the military junta. Import substitution efforts to mitigate Western sanctions are still slow and may lead to shortages that impede production and exports.

Significance Under the deal, the UN arms embargo will remain in force for five years, while the ban on ballistic missile sales will stay for eight years. This means that Russia's plans to supply Iran with the advanced S-300 missile system will face further delays. However, Moscow is not only focusing on arms sales to Iran, but is looking more widely across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The Kremlin will become increasingly dependent on high-value, high-technology military sales while oil prices stay low and Western sanctions remain. Impacts Russia has rebounded to become the second largest arms seller in the Middle East behind the United States. The durability of Russian equipment and its comparable cheapness to US systems will be key attractions for buyers. Russia has become the main global supplier of the anti-access, area-denial weapons. Iran will refrain from progressing controversial Russian weapons sales that could damage its detente with the West.


Significance Although the Fund upgraded its forecast for global growth this year to 6%, the recovery is becoming more uneven. Decisions were taken on global corporate tax, extended debt relief for developing states and a large disbursement of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). Whether these measures are wide or deep enough to support lower-income countries is debatable. Impacts Led by the United States, support for corporate tax reform is rising, but benefits will not come soon enough for fiscally distressed states. The firm global recovery relies on China’s GDP gaining more than 8% and India’s more than 10%; India faces greater immediate downside risks. The economic outlook is brighter for developing nations with robust public finances and limited tourism reliance where COVID-19 is in check. COVAX delivery timings may be optimistic, and the WTO is unlikely to waive intellectual property rights to production capability transfers.


Subject Prospects for defence in the fourth quarter. Significance The United States will remain the dominant arms producer in the fourth quarter. With the shape of the next defence budget broadly known, attention has shifted to the future of the US defence industrial base and the prospects of further rationalisation. Russia will continue to push global arms sales, particularly in the Middle East and North Africa and Asia Pacific regions, given low oil prices that are hurting Moscow's finances.


2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 12-47
Author(s):  
Yinan Li

The development of the PRC’s armed forces included three phases when their modernization was carried out through an active introduction of foreign weapons and technologies. The first and the last of these phases (from 1949 to 1961, and from 1992 till present) received wide attention in both Chinese and Western academic literature, whereas the second one — from 1978 to 1989 —when the PRC actively purchased weapons and technologies from the Western countries remains somewhat understudied. This paper is intended to partially fill this gap. The author examines the logic of the military-technical cooperation between the PRC and the United States in the context of complex interactions within the United States — the USSR — China strategic triangle in the last years of the Cold War. The first section covers early contacts between the PRC and the United States in the security field — from the visit of R. Nixon to China till the inauguration of R. Reagan. The author shows that during this period Washington clearly subordinated the US-Chinese cooperation to the development of the US-Soviet relations out of fear to damage the fragile process of detente. The second section focuses on the evolution of the R. Reagan administration’s approaches regarding arms sales to China in the context of a new round of the Cold War. The Soviet factor significantly influenced the development of the US-Chinese military-technical cooperation during that period, which for both parties acquired not only practical, but, most importantly, political importance. It was their mutual desire to undermine strategic positions of the USSR that allowed these two countries to overcome successfully tensions over the US arms sales to Taiwan. However, this dependence of the US-China military-technical cooperation on the Soviet factor had its downside. As the third section shows, with the Soviet threat fading away, the main incentives for the military-technical cooperation between the PRC and the United States also disappeared. As a result, after the Tiananmen Square protests, this cooperation completely ceased. Thus, the author concludes that the US arms sales to China from the very beginning were conditioned by the dynamics of the Soviet-American relations and Beijing’s willingness to play an active role in the policy of containment. In that regard, the very fact of the US arms sales to China was more important than its practical effect, i.e. this cooperation was of political nature, rather than military one.


Sensor Review ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 36 (2) ◽  
pp. 158-168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Drew van der Riet ◽  
Riaan Stopforth ◽  
Glen Bright ◽  
Olaf Diegel

Purpose This paper aims to explore the electronic design of the Touch Hand: a low-cost electrically powered prosthetic hand. The hand is equipped with an array of sensors allowing for position control and haptic sensation. Pressure sensors are used on the fingertips to detect grip force. A temperature sensor placed in the fingertip is used to measure the contact temperature of objects. Investigations are made into the use of cantilever vibration sensors to detect surface texture and object slippage. The hand is capable of performing a lateral grip of 3.7 N, a power grip of 19.5 N and to passively hold a weight of up to 8 kg with a hook grip. The hand is also tested on an amputee and used to perform basic tasks. The amputee took 30 min to learn how to operate the hands basic gripping functions. Design/methodology/approach Problems of previous prosthetic hands were investigated, followed by ways to improve or have similar capabilities, yet keeping in mind to reduce the price. The hand was then designed, simulated, developed and then tested. The hand was then displayed to public and tested with an amputee. Findings The Touch Hand’s capabilities with the usage of the low-cost materials, components and sensory system was obtained in the tests that were conducted. The results are shown in this paper to identify the appropriateness of the sensors for a usage while the costs are reduced. Furthermore, models were developed from the results obtained to take into account factors such as the non-slip material. Research limitations/implications The research was restricted to a US$1,000 budget to allow the availability of a low-cost prosthetic hand. Practical implications The Touch Hand had to have the ability to supply the amputee with haptic feedback while allowing the basic grasping of objects. The commercial value is the availability of an affordable prosthetic hand that can be used by amputees in Africa and other Lower-Income countries, yet allowing a more advanced control system compared to the pure mechanical systems currently available. Social implications The Touch Hand has the ability to give amputees affected in war situations the ability to grasp objects in a more affordable manner compared to the current available options. Feedback from amputees about the current features of the Touch Hand was very positive and it proves to be a way to improve society in Lower-Income countries in the near future. A sponsorship program is being developed to assist amputees with the costs of the Touch Hand. Originality/value The contributions of this research is a low-cost prototype system than can be commercialized to allow amputees in the Lower-Income countries to have the ability of a prosthetic hand. A sensory system in the hand is also explained which other low-cost prosthetic hands do not have, which includes temperature, force and vibration. Models of the sensors used that are developed and calibrated to the design of the hand are also described.


Subject Palace politics Significance Military courts earlier this month handed down the most severe sentences thus far in lese majeste cases, sentencing two people to 30 and 28 years in prison for criticising the monarchy on Facebook. The sentence, which has drawn sharp criticism from the United States and the UN, reflects a broader trend of tighter political and legal controls by the military in the context of the monarch's declining health. Impacts Domestic consumption will suffer as long as political uncertainty regarding the return of civilian rule persists. The palace has become more partisan since 2006; this is likely to continue after the royal transition. Lese majeste prosecutions will damage US-Thai relations, but Washington will not expand sanctions.


Significance The military coup, which began on September 16, has dealt a major blow towards restoring constitutional order. The 'soft coup' ousting last year of former President Blaise Compaore was on the back of a popular insurrection. This new coup represents a grab for power by old regime members. Presidential and legislative elections due on October 11 are unlikely to take place as scheduled. Impacts Prolonged unrest in Burkina will jeopardise the ability of France and the United States to use the country as a counterterrorism base. Compaore's possible role in the coup, from his current base in Ivory Coast, could embarrass the Ivorian president's own re-election bid. If the crisis persists, Burkina's steady economic performance will be imperilled from suspensions in donor support.


Significance Mestan also implied that Borisov and Dogan were allied in promoting Russian interests in Bulgarian politics -- while Bulgaria's 'yellow press' accuses him of being a Turkish puppet. On January 13, Borisov dismissed reports that he was keen to revive the South Stream gas pipeline project, but confirmed that Bulgaria was lobbying the European Commission for a Varna gas hub that would revive at least the underwater part of South Stream bringing Russian natural gas to Europe. Impacts DPS realignment will strengthen Borisov's hand domestically, but alienate Turkey and worry the United States. His interest in a gas hub enjoys overwhelming support in both government and opposition, with only about 20 deputies likely to oppose it. Broadly coinciding with Russian interests, the hub must now secure EU financial and political support, in the teeth of US opposition.


Author(s):  
William D. Stanley

El Salvador experienced five decades of direct military rule from 1931 through 1982, followed by a semi-authoritarian phase from 1982 to 1992 during which elected civilians ostensibly governed while the military retained veto power and impunity. Twelve years of civil war produced significant political change, and a 1992 peace settlement finally brought constitutional and institutional reforms that curbed the military’s political power. In the 19th and early 20th centuries, the armed forces had a somewhat informal structure, and while coups d’état occurred periodically, the military was more the tool of powerful individuals than the source of their power. An uncompetitive electoral system in the early 20th century broke down in 1931 after a combination of political reforms and financial crisis undermined civilian authority, and a coup enabled the minister of defense to seize power. Shortly thereafter, the fledgling military government suppressed a peasant uprising with extreme violence, thereby consolidating its own position and discouraging challenges from oligarchic elites. Initially military rule was personalistic, with power vested in General Maximiliano Hernández Martínez, but in the 1940s this transitioned to a more institutional system in which the officer corps collectively shaped the broad outlines of how the country would be governed and prevented any one leader from dominating. For over 30 years the institutional military government sought to achieve a degree of legitimacy through controlled elections, repressed opposition when it grew too strong, promoted economic growth, and implemented mild social reforms that always stopped short of challenging oligarchic interests. The military’s strategy failed to resolve severe social and political tensions that arose from the country’s highly unequal distribution of land and income. The military faced popular demands for access to land and adequate wages, while the agrarian elite resisted any reform. Factional strife broke out regularly within the military over whether to rely mainly on repression to contain social and political demands, or to break with the oligarchy and deliver deeper reforms. The result was an inconsistent policy that occasionally created political space for opposition and then violently closed it. By the late 1970s there were massive protests and the beginnings of armed insurgency. Outright civil war began in 1980, and the country began a partial transition to civilian rule in 1982. Despite ample help from the United States, the military failed to defeat the insurgents. In 1990, the conservative elected civilian government began negotiating with the insurgents, leading to accords that definitively excluded the military from political power. After 1992 the country struggled with a sluggish economy and pervasive crime, and questions remained about past human rights crimes. The political system was genuinely democratic, featuring unrestricted debate and a wide range of political ideologies. The military remained largely subordinate to civil authority under governments of both the right and the left. Yet legacies of authoritarianism persisted, and in 2020 a populist elected civilian president called on the military for political support and used it to detain people unlawfully during the COVID-19 pandemic.


Significance This is the first state visit extended to a Japanese prime minister since Junichiro Koizumi's in 2006 under the George W Bush administration. Abe was awarded the honour on April 29 of being the first Japanese prime minister to address together both houses of the US Congress. Impacts Abe has strengthened the military alliance, but fulfilling his promises to Washington will cost him political capital at home. History issues are increasingly able to cause Abe problems in the United States as well as East Asia. The economic alliance is shakier than the military one; the US Congress may still delay the TPP. Tokyo and Washington look isolated as the TPP stalls and regional governments sign up to China's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank.


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