Japan's economic recovery will pick up pace

Significance COVID-19 is spreading at the fastest rate since the pandemic began, exceeding 20,000 new daily cases for the first time this month. The government has extended emergency measures into September. Impacts Business expansion, on hold for more than a year, is showing signs of life as machinery sales rebound. Semiconductor and other parts shortages will hold back expansion in the short run, but their effects will diminish over the coming year. Economic recovery and successful mass vaccination come too late for the unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who will soon be replaced.

Significance The election for the House of Representatives, the lower house of parliament, will be the second since the constitution was revised in 2011. This specified that the leader of the party winning the largest number of seats should be given the first opportunity to form a government. The revision led to the moderate Islamist party, the Justice and Development Party (PJD), leading the government for the first time after its victory in the November 2011 poll. Impacts The election will focus attention on contentious reforms to pensions, subsidies and the education system. The months ahead will be dominated by speculation about party alliances and the likely shape of a future coalition government. The palace seems ready to accept a second term for Prime Minister Abdelilah Benkirane, but is also keen to see PAM within government.


Subject Borisov’s third administration. Significance The government approved by parliament on May 4 is Prime Minister Boyko Borisov’s third since 2009. It is the first time his Citizens for Bulgaria’s European Development (GERB) party has joined in formal coalition with United Patriots (OB), a bloc comprising three nationalist parties. Two OB leaders, Krasimir Karakachanov and Valery Simeonov, are deputy prime ministers, but only the former combines this position with a portfolio (defence). OB’s third and most controversial leader -- Ataka party leader Volen Siderov, noted previously for rabid anti-NATO and pro-Putin statements -- has no formal government role. Impacts GERB has reaffirmed its domination of Bulgarian politics with minimal concessions to its formal coalition partners. The spectre of increased Russian influence over Bulgarian politics that worried some EU partners has seemingly dissipated. A firmer line against migration is likely as a sop to OB, but meaningful reform of the judiciary will again be strenuously avoided. Sofia’s worries about Turkey and the Western Balkans and its forthcoming EU presidency may make it more amenable to EU influence and advice.


Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.


Subject Thailand's long-delayed election. Significance More than 40 new political parties have been registered in Thailand since March 2, and established parties will be allowed to begin registering members on April 1, as Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha and the military-led National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO) begin a process of preparing for a long-delayed general election. The 2017 constitution initiated by the NCPO allows the (to be re-established) House of Representatives to select an ‘outsider’ as prime minister if it is unable to decide on a party-affiliated figure. Impacts Persistent election delays will not affect Thailand’s current economic recovery. Despite mounting political pressure on the government to commit to a poll, anti-government protests will not grow. Improving relations with the United States could insulate the government from EU pressure on delayed elections.


Significance Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha remains under pressure to carry out a cabinet reshuffle to contain government infighting. At the same time, the government is trying to spur a recovery from the economic slump caused by the COVID-19 crisis. Impacts The departure of technocratic ministers from the cabinet would set back investor confidence. A COVID-19 state of emergency could be extended beyond end-July, even though Thailand appears to have the pandemic under control. The government will continue to direct legal cases against opposition leaders to hamper their parties.


Subject Prospects for India in the second quarter. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered a major defeat in Delhi elections in February, denting the party's perception of electoral invincibility. This has cast a shadow over Modi's economic agenda just when investor pressure is mounting for 'big bang' reforms. Nonetheless, signs of economic recovery -- visible in the uptick in GDP growth, moderating inflation and strengthening balance of payments -- promise the government room for manoeuvre in the second quarter of 2015 (the first quarter of fiscal 2015-16).


Subject The Netherlands' 2017 budget. Significance In the final budget of its four-year term presented on September 20, the Dutch government announced it would redistribute a 1.1-billion-euro (1.2-billion-dollar) financial windfall among households. This represents a clear break from four years of austerity and tight spending, a line strictly set out by Prime Minister Mark Rutte's second cabinet in 2012. Impacts An upsurge in the number of incoming migrants could fuel support for the PVV. The government may not address the 'no' vote in the April 2016 referendum on the EU-Ukraine association agreement until next year. The housing market will be boosted by incentives for first-time buyers and measures to encourage home ownership.


Subject Political situation in Belgium. Significance The centre-right Belgian government coalition, led by Prime Minister Charles Michel, has pursued a reformist agenda since it came into power in 2014. However, this has been met with opposition from trade unions and the public. While the government has implemented some of its planned reforms, more work is required to reform the country’s welfare system and increase employment. Meanwhile, regional tensions between Flanders and Wallonia remain an issue. Impacts The modest economic recovery will probably continue, with GDP growth forecast to reach 1.4% this year. The government's reforms are expected to lead to the creation of 120,000 jobs in 2017. Although the public deficit is expected to be below 3% of GDP this year, the consolidation of public finances will remain a priority. Islamist terrorism continues to pose a threat and the country remains on high alert.


Subject Prospects for Turkey to end-2021. Significance Deepening popular discontent, a growing opposition bloc and internal rivalries have put the ruling coalition on the back foot for the first time, but also made it more unpredictable. The economic recovery has continued, notwithstanding policy tightening, but the lira has been weak and inflation high. Unemployment is a significant concern.


Author(s):  
Afroz Ahmad ◽  
Usha Roopnarain

The last Indian parliamentary election held in 2014, proved to be the finest example of India’s age-old commitment towards the pinnacle of democratic norms. India had set a niche by conducting the largest democratic franchise in history. First time ever since the 1984, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved the majority in the Lok Sabha without clubbing with coalition partners. It also got the absolute mandate to rule India’s federal government by ending the Congress monopoly. Interestingly, the Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi in his campaigns criticized Congress-led United Progressive Alliance II (UPA II) for its impotency towards establishing friendly and cooperative relations with India’s neighbors. He also gave assurance that if his party (BJP) got the mandate, his leadership would adopt appropriate measures to resuscitate convivial ties with neighbors. Since forming the government, Prime Minister Modi has been persistently trying to pursue those promises by proceeding towards friendly ties with India’s neighbors. In the light of above discussion, this paper seeks to critically analyze the progress in Indo-Nepal relations under BJP government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.


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