China may struggle to achieve a job-rich GDP recovery

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Defence Spending ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
People's Congress ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for China following the lifting of the COVID-19 lockdown. Significance The economic uncertainties due to the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic made this year’s National People’s Congress (NPC) unusually important. After GDP fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first quarter, the government for the first time announced no annual GDP growth target, indicating extreme uncertainty over the extent and durability of recovery. Impacts China’s industrial output will outpace export demand; trade tensions such as anti-dumping cases could rise. US-China tensions will rise, but both sides will be warier than last year of major moves that could jeopardise economic recovery. China’s commitment to high military spending is undiminished by its economic troubles; defence spending will rise as a share of GDP.

Weak consumption may thwart Slovak growth plans

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Industrial Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fiscal Deficits ◽  
Consumption Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject The government's latest GDP expectations for 2016-19. Significance On September 19, days before surviving a parliamentary no-confidence vote, the government announced GDP projections for 2016-19, based on improvements in consumption growth and the labour market, where registered unemployment hovers at historically low levels. Despite its weakened position following the recent departure of junior coalition partner Siet, Smer-Social Democracy (SD) is upbeat about the prospects for robust GDP growth in 2016, revising its forecast upwards to 3.6% from 3.2%. Impacts Industrial output, GDP and inflationary pressures may pick up post-2018, as consumers spend more and auto industry investments create jobs. The government may miss its targets in the short term, but fiscal deficits should remain below the EU limit of 3% of GDP in 2016-18. More public-private partnerships, modelled on the Bratislava ring-road, plus EU funding, may support infrastructure investment after 2017.

Fiscal adjustment may prove painful in Uruguay

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Union ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
High Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Public Finances ◽  
Fiscal Adjustment ◽  
Economic Climate ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Uruguay's economic outlook. Significance The government has determined a fiscal adjustment, with tax increases for middle- and high-income earners, delays in public spending plans and a reform of military pensions, in a bid to address worsening public finances. It is the first time that the leftist Frente Amplio (FA), in government since 2005, has faced an adverse economic climate. Impacts Austerity in a context of 'stagflation' will generate political and trade union tensions. Rising unemployment will drive a deterioration in real family incomes. Growth will remain paltry this year and next.

Mexico's weak GDP growth will outlast Pena Nieto

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Severe Problem ◽  
Content Type ◽  
World Economic ◽  
The Government ◽  
Latin American Countries ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject GDP growth shows no sign of improving in the short-term. Significance In its most recent update to its World Economic Outlook, the IMF lowered its forecast for Mexico's 2016 GDP growth to 2.4% from 2.6% foreseen in January. This figure compares well with other Latin American countries -- notably Brazil and Venezuela -- yet it marks the continuation of a trend of meagre expansion that has characterised President Enrique Pena Nieto's time in office despite his efforts to introduce economic reforms. Impacts Further reform to encourage greater flexibility in the labour market will be key to increasing small business productivity. Low growth and a lack of prospects for the young will feed into Mexico's rising crime rates. The lack of growth could become a severe problem for the government both directly and indirectly in the 2018 election.

Bangladesh economy is showing signs of resilience

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Fiscal Year ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Garment Workers ◽  
The Government

Significance The pandemic has badly hit the economically important ready-made garments (RMG) sector, but there are signs that textile exports are picking up. The government targets GDP growth of 8.2% in the fiscal year ending June 2021 -- the same as in 2018/19, and a marked recovery from the slowdown in 2019/20. Impacts Economic recovery will boost support for the government, whose dominance of politics remains formidable. Garment workers who remain out of work may engage in anti-government protests. Supplies of COVID-19 vaccines from India will help consolidate Dhaka-Delhi ties.

Nigerian economic policy likely to stutter

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Policy Formulation ◽  
Growth Potential ◽  
Content Type ◽  
National Assembly ◽  
Investor Confidence ◽  
Oil Sector ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject Nigeria's economic outlook. Significance The economy contracted by 2.24% year-on-year in the third quarter, sharper than the 2.10% registered in second quarter, led by the oil sector’s continuing decline. The non-oil sector experienced a slight rebound, expanding for the first time this year. However, results here may prove fleeting as the policy environment becomes inimical to growth into 2017. Implementation of next year’s budget is already at risk from the ongoing stand-off between lawmakers and the presidency, while proposed new foreign exchange (forex) controls could further delay the return of crucial investments. Impacts The medium-term expenditure framework is unlikely to ease investor concerns over the government’s economic policy formulation capacity. Potential lenders may demand external policy assistance -- possibly from the IMF -- before considering extending credit to the government. Delays in the national assembly approving the 2017 budget could further undermine investor confidence and hamper growth potential.

Virus will stymie Seoul's economic recovery hopes

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Monthly Total ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The economic outlook for South Korea in 2020. Significance Hong Nam-ki, South Korea’s finance minister and deputy premier for economic affairs, admitted on February 3 that the coronavirus outbreak in China could cut South Korea’s GDP growth by up to 0.7 percentage points this year. Hyundai and other carmakers are already suspending production, owing to shortages of key components sourced from China. Impacts The risk to South Korea is less from illness than economic disruption, principally disrupted supply chains and reduced consumption. Tourism is especially vulnerable to damage by individual and collective responses to the coronavirus. GDP growth this year will fall below 2019’s 2%, already the slowest figure since 2009. Demographic pressures are growing, as highlighted by November’s lowest-ever monthly total of births. Moon’s bid to curb real estate prices may inhibit the nominally independent central bank from cutting interest rates to boost demand.

Japan economic trends point to slowdown or recession

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Consumer Sentiment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Economic Trends ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject The macroeconomic outlook for Japan. Significance For the first time in six and a half years, businesses are pessimistic about the economic outlook, according to the results of a Nikkei-Markit survey of manufacturing purchasing managers released today. This comes just days after Japan’s first-quarter 2019 real GDP data surprised forecasters with a solid 2.1% growth over the previous quarter (seasonally adjusted, annual rate). Nominal growth was an even more surprising 3.3%. Impacts Even a recession is unlikely to deter a tax rise; the government would increase the immediate stimulus accompanying the rise. New US tariffs on China will mean lower exports from China to the United States, in turn reducing Chinese demand for Japanese components. Growth of jobs and labour income could boost consumer sentiment eventually, reversing an 18-month slide in confidence and consumption.

Prospects for India in the second quarter

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Big Bang ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bharatiya Janata Party ◽  
The Government

Subject Prospects for India in the second quarter. Significance Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) suffered a major defeat in Delhi elections in February, denting the party's perception of electoral invincibility. This has cast a shadow over Modi's economic agenda just when investor pressure is mounting for 'big bang' reforms. Nonetheless, signs of economic recovery -- visible in the uptick in GDP growth, moderating inflation and strengthening balance of payments -- promise the government room for manoeuvre in the second quarter of 2015 (the first quarter of fiscal 2015-16).

China need not sustain faster GDP growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Investment ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Fiscal Stimulus ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Growth ◽  
Private Spending ◽  
Investment Spending ◽  
First Time ◽  
Economic Outlook

Subject China economic outlook for 2017. Significance GDP growth accelerated for the first time in two years in the fourth quarter of 2016, gaining 6.8% year-on-year amid signs that higher public investment spending has helped private spending to strengthen. However, reliance on fiscal stimulus and credit remains a concern. Impacts Property market growth is likely to slow as the measures that have been introduced to curb housing debts feed through. The risk of US protectionism makes China’s export prospects uncertain. Rising factory-gate prices should help industrial profitability and boost industrial output. Restrictions on property purchases will dampen investment enough to show in overall GDP growth. A rise in mortgage borrowing will reduce growth in consumer spending.

Japan's economic recovery will pick up pace

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Prime Minister ◽  
Mass Vaccination ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
First Time ◽  
Emergency Measures

Significance COVID-19 is spreading at the fastest rate since the pandemic began, exceeding 20,000 new daily cases for the first time this month. The government has extended emergency measures into September. Impacts Business expansion, on hold for more than a year, is showing signs of life as machinery sales rebound. Semiconductor and other parts shortages will hold back expansion in the short run, but their effects will diminish over the coming year. Economic recovery and successful mass vaccination come too late for the unpopular Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who will soon be replaced.

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