Democratic Charter has fallen short in Latin America

Significance It has proved more effective in cajoling smaller states in the region than the larger ones and, under the stewardship of Secretary-General Luis Almagro, has been used primarily to attack left-wing governments more than those of the right. Impacts The lack of strong party systems in many countries will limit the appeal of representative democracy. Deep social divides, coupled with ethnic tensions in several countries, will persist. Other interested outside actors, such as China, will contribute little to debates about democracy.

Significance After a decade of political dominance, the ruling Alianza Pais (AP) is plagued with infighting, divided loyalties and corruption scandals, and faces rupture. President Lenin Moreno retains broad support in the party, but a substantial faction has declared loyalty to Correa so that an intra-party schism along Moreno-Correa lines is looking more likely. Impacts Parties to the right of AP would gain most if the party split; left-wing opposition will remain marginalised. Opposition leaders from the left and right will intensify efforts to open corruption investigations into Correa. Correa’s return to Ecuador would leave him vulnerable to charges of corruption.


Significance The students had gathered from universities around the country to take part in a month-long protest that began as a dispute over the right of factory workers to unionise. Impacts China's official trade union will come under even more intense pressure to reform. The Communist Party's ideology makes it vulnerable to left-wing criticism that it falls short of the ideals it professes. This protest proves that the potential exists for activists to bridge geographical and socio-economic divides.


Subject The political outlook after the 'departement' elections. Significance Following the March 2015 'departement' elections, four candidates are emerging as front-runners for the 2017 presidential election in their respective camps. After enjoying a political comeback in recent months and seeing internal Socialist Party (PS) and other left-wing opposition sidelined, President Francois Hollande will now almost certainly be able to run for re-election as the PS candidate. Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe and former President Nicolas Sarkozy are battling for control of the centre-right, divided principally by strategy towards immigration, Islam and the National Front (FN). FN leader Marine Le Pen has emerged from a decisive showdown with her father as an even stronger far-right candidate. The political landscape has shifted to the right. Impacts Having re-established some stability around his presidency, Hollande is now unlikely to risk it by pursuing economic reforms. Hollande could aggravate divisions among the Greens and on the far left by including Green ministers in the government in coming months. As potential presidents, both Juppe and Sarkozy appear willing to engage in substantial structural reform. Jean-Marie Le Pen's final political exit will allow a new generation to take definitive charge of the FN and complete its 'detoxification'.


Subject Counterterrorism and censorship online. Significance Preventing and countering violent extremism (CVE) has become a major issue on the international agenda in the past year. It prompted the UN Secretary General to launch a Plan of Action on Preventing Violent Extremism (PVE) in December 2015 and put increased pressure on US technology firms to cooperate with the government in this latest iteration of the 'War on Terror'. The importance placed on countering extremism and radicalisation online coupled with the Apple vs FBI encryption debate over the responsibilities of technology companies will increasingly affect the open internet and the right to digital privacy. Impacts Efforts to counter violent extremism by focusing on internet technology may have a detrimental impact on privacy and trust online. The debates over encryption backdoors have brought private companies, not NGOs or civil society, to the forefront of the privacy debate. Reorienting the CVE agenda away from online speech will be nearly impossible as NGO funding streams and CVE projects gain momentum.


2017 ◽  
Vol 50 (14) ◽  
pp. 1871-1906 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasha Fairfield ◽  
Candelaria Garay

Unexpected social policy expansion and progressive tax reforms initiated by right-wing governments in Latin America highlight the need for further theory development on the politics of redistribution. We focus on electoral competition for low-income voters in conjunction with the power of organized actors—both business and social movements. We argue that electoral competition motivates redistribution under left-wing and right-wing incumbents alike although such initiatives are more modest when conservatives dominate and business is well organized. Social mobilization drives more substantial redistribution by counterbalancing business power and focusing incumbents on securing social peace and surviving in office. By characterizing distinctive features of social-policy politics and tax-policy politics and theorizing linkages between the two realms, we contribute to broader debates on the relative influence of voters versus organized interests in policymaking. We apply our theory to explain “least-likely” cases of redistributive policies under conservative governments in Mexico (2000-2012) and Chile (2010-2014).


Author(s):  
Andrés Mora-Ramírez

This essay offers an interpretation of the Latin America conjuncture of the last two/three years. On one hand, the conjuncture is characterized by what the analyst call de end of the progressive national and popular cycle.  On the other hand the conjuncture is marked by the electoral rising of the right wing governments and parties,they are driving the restoration of the neoliberal project in the region. We present a contextualization of this double process and its main conflict dimension and we reflect from a position of identification and critical accompaniment of the national, popular, progressive, Latin American project. We also reflect on the need of the social movements, political parties and organic intellectuals of the Latin American left wing to assume, as a task, the dispute for the political and cultural hegemony vis-a-vis of the project of reviving the neoliberalism.


Subject Finland's new government. Significance Over the next six months, Finland’s new five-party government will be fighting on two fronts: it seeks to increase government spending in areas such as welfare and climate change at home, and simultaneously use its six-month term in charge of the EU presidency to support ambitious international reforms related to climate change. Impacts The government’s failure to deliver targets could bring the right-wing populist Finns Party to power in the next election. The implementation of 'sin taxes' could backfire, with studies suggesting that they hit the working class most in the immediate term. Selling company holdings to increase government revenue could create distrust between unions and the left-wing parties in government.


Subject Election of a new Organization of American States secretary-general. Significance Luis Almagro is standing for re-election as secretary-general of the Organization of American States (OAS). Under his mandate, the OAS has shifted from consensus-building in favour of hostility towards left-of-centre governments in Latin America. His candidacy is being challenged by two other candidates, one from Ecuador and one from Peru, who point to his divisive impact on the organisation. Impacts Caracas will seek to encourage opposition to Almagro among states over which it still exercises some influence. An Almagro victory would be seen as a policy success for Washington. Divisions will remain among member states as to whether the OAS should endorse a more active response in seeking to remove Maduro.


Subject LGBTI rights in Latin America. Significance On January 9, the Inter-American Court of Human Rights issued a landmark ruling, requiring that states party to the American Convention on Human Rights must recognise same-sex marriage. The ruling also recognised the right of transgender people to change their names on legal documentation. The region has seen significant progress on LGBTI rights over recent years, but the ruling will face strong pushback from some states and religious groups. Impacts Opposition in some countries will be driven by factors including a heavily ‘machista’ culture, and moral hostility from religious groups. Legislation alone will not reduce the risks of violence and discrimination faced by LGBTI communities. The difficulty of imposing uniform LGBTI rights across regions will be replicated elsewhere.


2014 ◽  
Vol 38 (01) ◽  
pp. 102-129
Author(s):  
ALBERTO MARTÍN ÁLVAREZ ◽  
EUDALD CORTINA ORERO

AbstractUsing interviews with former militants and previously unpublished documents, this article traces the genesis and internal dynamics of the Ejército Revolucionario del Pueblo (People's Revolutionary Army, ERP) in El Salvador during the early years of its existence (1970–6). This period was marked by the inability of the ERP to maintain internal coherence or any consensus on revolutionary strategy, which led to a series of splits and internal fights over control of the organisation. The evidence marshalled in this case study sheds new light on the origins of the armed Salvadorean Left and thus contributes to a wider understanding of the processes of formation and internal dynamics of armed left-wing groups that emerged from the 1960s onwards in Latin America.


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