German foreign policy will struggle under coalition

Significance On foreign policy, the three parties are rhetorically committed to adopting a tougher stance towards China and other authoritarian countries. However, they differ on what this might involve and the relative threats posed by China and Russia. To enhance foreign policy coordination, in an unprecedented three-party coalition, they have agreed to draft a national security strategy. Impacts EU approval of the investment deal with China will not progress until China ends anti-EU sanctions, which seems unlikely. Climate change is now the main concern for German voters, which will put pressure on the government to take appropriate measures. Germany’s policy towards public investment and fiscal policy will be less dogmatic, both domestically and at the EU level.

Subject The United Kingdom's new National Security Strategy (NSS). Significance The new National Security Strategy (NSS), published in late November alongside the quinquennial Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR) and comprehensive spending review, reaffirms previous UK government analyses of the international security environment. However, the government's approach is now more confident and proactive, backed by significant new commitments and expenditure. The NSS places cyber and intelligence capabilities centre stage, including a readiness to use offensive cyber capabilities. Impacts The NSS has no analysis of possible 'Brexit' implications; release of any such official analysis could be an issue before the EU referendum. Unlike the 2010 version, the new NSS implicitly identifies Russia as a state threat, potentially shaping UK behaviour in NATO and the EU. Despite a new overseas aid strategy, the relatively large scale of UK aid will remain controversial among some on the political right.


Subject Russia's new national security strategy Significance A new National Security Strategy (NSS) signed off by President Vladimir Putin on December 30 covers a broad range of issues from Russia's place in a dangerous and "imbalanced" world to the economic challenges that the government must tackle. The document accuses the West of backing a "coup" in Ukraine in 2014 and pursuing policies that allowed the Islamic State group (ISG) to emerge. Impacts The characterisation of Western states as hostile will be mirrored in harsher wording in their policy statements on Russia. In an election year, there will be little emphasis on democratic values. Regional and ethnic interests will be subsumed in a 'unitary Russia' narrative.


Author(s):  
E.V. Ananieva

The unsatisfactory state of Russian-UK relations should be considered not so much in a bilateral format as in the context of global change in the balance of power. It is necessary to take into account not only the factor of Britain's exit from the EU and Britain's search for its place in the world, but also the traditions and principles of the United Kingdom's foreign policy throughout history. The new National Security Strategy of Britain (March 2021) is integrated, for the first time including in a single concept traditional areas of defense and security, as well as aid to development and foreign policy. The author analyzes the evolution of approaches to the content and the implementation of London's foreign policy strategy after Brexit in the light of its significance for Russian-UK relations.


2015 ◽  
Vol 59 (12) ◽  
pp. 30-40
Author(s):  
V. Vasil'ev

The article investigates approaches taken by major political parties and civil society in the FRG toward the Transatlantic partnership. It reveals the tendencies of the prospective promotion of Berlin’s cooperation with Washington; the article also gives a forecast of further interaction between the EU and the USA, indicates the direction of discourse regarding the future Russia–Germany relations model in the context of the Ukrainian crisis and in reference to the increased transatlantic solidarity. Disputes in German socio-political circles on the issue of the FRG’s policy toward the U.S. are emerging all the time, but they have to be considered within a concrete historical and political context. Being of primary significance for all German chancellors, the Trans-Atlantic factor has been shaping itself in a controversial way as to the nation’s public opinion. This has been confirmed by many opinion polls, including the survey on the signing of the EU–U.S. Agreement on the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. Chancellor A. Merkel is playing an important role: she is either ascribed full compliancy with Washington, or is being tentatively shown as a consistent government figure in advancing and upholding of Germany's and the EU's interests. A. Merkel has implemented her peace-seeking drive in undoing the Ukrainian tangle by setting up the “Normandy format” involving the leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine while having cleared it through with the U.S. President B. Obama well in advance. Despite the increasing criticism of Washington’s policy among some part of Germans, for the majority of German voters, the USA remains a country of implementable hopes, the only power in the world possessing a high education level and the most advanced technologies. Americans, for their part, are confident of the important role that Berlin plays in world politics, particularly in what concerns the maintenance of unity within the EU. Berlin aims at further constructive interaction with the USA in the frame of NATO as well as within other Trans-Atlantic formats. Notwithstanding the steady tendency toward increasing of the Washington policy’s critical perception degree in German society, officially Berlin continues as Washington’s true ally, partner and friend. There is every reason to believe that after the 2017 Bundestag elections, the new (the former) Chancellor will have to face a modernized Trans-Atlantic partnership philosophy, with a paradigm also devised in the spirit of the bloc discipline and commitments to allies. The main concern for Berlin is not to lose its sovereign right of decision-making, including the one that deals with problems of European security and relations with Moscow. Regrettably, Germany is not putting forward any innovative ideas on aligning a new architecture of European security with Russia’s participation. Meanwhile, German scholars and experts are trying to work out a tentative algorithm of a gradual return to the West’s full-fledged dialogue with Russia, which, unfortunately, is qualified as an opponent by many politicians. Predictably, the Crimea issue will remain a long-lasting political irritant in relations between Russia and Germany. Although not every aspect of Berlin’s activation in its foreign policy finds support of the German public, and the outburst of anti-American feeling is obvious, experts believe that the government of the FRG is “merely taking stock of these phenomena and ignores them”. Evident is the gap between the government's line and the feeling of the German parties’ basis – the public. It is noteworthy that the FRG has not yet adopted the Law on Holding General Federal Referendums on key issues of the domestic and foreign policy. There is every indication to assume that the real causes of abandoning the nationwide referendums are the reluctance of the German ruling bureaucracy and even its apprehensions of the negative voting returns on sensitive problems, – such as basic documents and decisions of the EU, the export of German arms, relations with the U.S., etc. The harmony between Berlin’s "Realpolitik" and German public opinion is not yet discernible within the system of Trans-Atlantic axes.


Subject France’s foreign policy. Significance Following several speeches by President Emmanuel Macron on France’s international ambitions and priorities, a new strategic review was published on October 11, updating the 2013 White Book on defence and security. Nonetheless, many questions remain around the implications of Macron’s new foreign policy agenda. Impacts Strategic bilateral relationships will be marked by toughness and pragmatism, as is the case in Macron’s personal relations with Trump. France’s position in the EU -- ambitious but often lonely -- and the Brexit negotiations will be a priority for the government. The 2019-24 military procurement programming law will allocate financial means and indicate which of Macron’s ambitions may be realistic. The modernisation of France's nuclear forces will put additional pressure on the defence budget.


Significance The next election will be the first since the military, led by then general, now Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, deposed Yingluck Shinawatra’s administration in May 2014. Impacts The prime minister’s Washington visit later this month will be portrayed as a pre-election display of foreign policy strength. The government will increase public investment for the remainder of this year, at least. This, it hopes, will maintain economic momentum, and strengthen the junta’s popular appeal. The post-election possibility of fresh political interventions by the military will concern investors.


Significance The minority Socialist Party (PSOE) - Unidas Podemos (UP) government needed the support of several left-wing and pro-independence parties to get the budget through. Its approval makes early elections unlikely and gives the government a better chance to shape the COVID-19 economic recovery and implement some of its 2019 electoral pledges. Impacts Spain’s poor record in absorbing EU funds suggests it will struggle to make the most of the EU recovery fund. The weakening of the UK currency will hurt Spanish exports to the United Kingdom, especially with fewer UK tourists coming to Spain. Greater political stability will enable Spain to pursue a more assertive foreign policy.


Author(s):  
Elena Ananieva ◽  
◽  
Kira Godovanyuk ◽  

The new UK national security strategy review (March 2021) has an integrated character, for the first time uniting the spheres of defense, security, development and foreign policy in one concept. This paper explores the evolution of the Johnson government approaches to the content of the strategy and its implementation in the context of post-Brexit and its implications for UK-Russia bilateral relations.


Subject Renzi's bid for more growth-friendly policies. Significance In its paper, 'A shared European policy strategy for growth, jobs, and stability', the Ministry of the Economy and Finance (MEF) sketches a plan to create more flexibility in EU macroeconomic policy coordination. The immediate goal is to enable member-state governments to use more fiscal stimulus and public investment to boost growth. Impacts If Renzi's constitutional reforms do not go through in October, the government will be in disarray. The ECB is likely to ease policy further tomorrow, while reminding markets that monetary policy accommodation is insufficient on its own. The March 17 European Council summit will be Renzi's chance to reframe the macroeconomic conversation.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document