Impeachment will add new uncertainties in Peru

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Business Community ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Election Victory ◽  
The Right

Significance The right-wing opposition, led by Keiko Fujimori’s Fuerza Popular (Popular Force, FP), never fully recognised Castillo’s razor-thin election victory in June. Impeachment, the only constitutional method of ousting a sitting president, would require the votes of two-thirds of Congress; the votes are currently narrowly balanced. Impacts Castillo will retain public sympathy against a deeply unpopular Congress. Further motions of censure against ministers are to be expected. The business community will remain on the side-lines, for now.

Canadian election could produce fragile government

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Canadian History ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Voting System ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Democratic Party

Significance The three main parties -- the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP), the centrist Liberals, and the right-wing Conservatives -- are nearly tied in national voter intention polls. While the effects of Canada's first-past-the-post voting system appear to give the Conservatives and the NDP better chances at winning a plurality of seats in parliament, all three parties have a chance at victory, an unprecedented situation in Canadian history. Impacts The death of refugee Alan Kurdi has resulted in all three parties promising to expand Canada's acceptance of refugees from Iraq and Syria. The longer campaign could result in a doubling of the election's cost to the taxpayer. Both the NDP and the Liberals have promised that this will be the final election using the first-past-the-post system.

Denmark's weak new government faces complex alliances

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Strategy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The new government will have only 34 of the 179 seats, because policy differences among the right-wing parties, and the political strategy of the electorally strengthened anti-immigration, Euro-sceptic Danish People's Party (DF), mean DF will remain outside. Policy-making will be difficult. The government will be more economically liberal and pro-EU than it would have been with DF, but to make policy it will rely on partners across the political spectrum, especially the ousted Social Democrats -- who remain the largest party -- and DF. Impacts If DF is seen as a welfarist protector of ordinary citizens, it is more likely to repeat, at least, its 22% vote in the next election. The much-tighter immigration regime which is in prospect could taint Denmark's image and make it less attractive to foreign investment. The new government is likely to be an ally for much of UK Prime Minister David Cameron's EU reform agenda.

French labour reform may be watered down further

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
Labour Market ◽  
Trade Unions ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current State ◽  
Significant Step ◽  
Promotional Campaign ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right

Significance The draft law was presented by Labour Minister Myriam El Khomry in late February and aims at introducing more flexibility in France's rigid labour market. The government has led a promotional campaign in favour of the reform, against a backdrop of opposition from trade unions, students and public opinion. Valls has watered down the most controversial proposals but even in its current state the proposed reform would be a significant step forward. Impacts The government will need to assemble a diverse majority spanning the centre-left to the centre-right in order to pass the draft law by July. Reformist trade unions support the revised version of the law but more militant unions maintain their opposition. The right wing and the main employer association oppose the revised draft which they consider not favourable enough to companies.

Warsaw may be isolated in EU on ‘posted workers’

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Competitive Advantage ◽  
Social Insurance ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Migration Policy ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Member States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eu Member States ◽  
The Right

Subject Poland’s isolation over EU labour reform. Significance "They will not break us," Prime Minister Beata Szydlo said in a recent interview for a right-wing weekly. She was referring to Poland’s opposition to EU migration policy and more generally to a broader set of issues that divide the right-wing government in Warsaw from its EU partners. Szydlo's belligerent rhetoric plays well with domestic audiences but conceals Poland’s inability to build alliances and protect its interests. These weaknesses have become apparent during recent talks on reforming the EU’s Posted Workers Directive. Impacts New regulations may erode the competitive advantage of Polish firms that regularly post workers to western EU member states. The Polish budget would lose posted workers’ social insurance contributions, a loss estimated as worth up to 275 million dollars a month. Poland’s reputation as a regional spokesman for the interests of CEE member states may be undermined.

German populist party AfD may have reached its peak

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Radical Change ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Traffic Light ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Eastern State ◽  
Feasible Option ◽  
Election Results ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Right ◽  
Double Digit

Significance The recent state elections demonstrate that German voting patterns are becoming increasingly flexible. The right-wing populist Alternative fuer Deutschland (AfD) achieved double-digit results in all three elections and became the second-strongest party in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt. The election results also increase the intra-party pressure on Merkel and highlight the tensions within the coalition, but at the moment, neither a radical change in Merkel's refugee policies nor early federal elections seem likely. Impacts In Baden-Wuerttemberg, the Greens will form a coalition government with the weakened CDU. In Rhineland-Palatinate, a 'traffic light coalition' (SPD, Liberal Democrats and Greens) is the most likely outcome. In Saxony-Anhalt, a 'Kenya coalition' (CDU, SPD and Greens) is the only politically feasible option. In two states a CDU-SPD coalition would not have a sufficient majority to govern, which is a first in the Federal Republic's history.

Israel’s judicial review will weaken

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supreme Court ◽  
Judicial Review ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rightward Shift ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
To Come ◽  
The Right ◽  
Trump Administration

Subject Rightward shift of the Supreme Court. Significance The Supreme Court has historically checked political power through judicial review. However, under the present government its independence has been challenged by a battle with Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked of the ultra-nationalist Jewish Home party. The right-wing-dominated Knesset (parliament) has in recent months passed several controversial laws affecting the rights of Arab Israelis and Palestinians, which are likely to come before the court. Impacts Expanded Israeli control over the West Bank would reduce the likelihood of a political agreement with the Palestinians. Unchecked pro-settler legislation could create diplomatic crises with partners in Europe and potentially with the Trump administration. Conservative legislation could also constrain minority and individual rights, over such issues as gender, sexuality and freedom of religion. Ultra-nationalist legislation will further alienate US Jewish supporters who believe it undermines democracy in Israel.

New year brings fresh challenges for Ecuador’s Moreno

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Natural Support ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Right

Subject Moreno's challenges. Significance President Lenin Moreno begins 2019 with a new vice-president -- his third so far -- and a deeply divided party. Worsening relations between himself and his predecessor are polarising his natural support base. While he has managed to consolidate his position by forming alliances with the right, he remains in a vulnerable position, and will face major political challenges over the coming year. Impacts Moreno’s continued drift to the right will please international investors and help his government attract foreign direct investment. Moreno’s line on Venezuela signals alignment with regional right-wing governments and a further break with Correa’s foreign policy. Political tensions will build as the local elections approach -- isolated episodes of violence will almost certainly occur.

New Netherlands government will shift to the right

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Air Travel ◽  
The Political ◽  
Economic Policies ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Labour Market Participation ◽  
Heavy Goods Vehicles ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
The Right

Significance The change in composition from a coalition between the Liberal Party (VVD) and Labour Party (PvdA) to one involving the VVD, the Liberal Democrats (D66), the Christian Democratic Appeal (CDA) and the Christian Union (CU) signifies a shift to the right of the political spectrum. Impacts Liberal economic policies are likely to increase labour market participation. New green policies such as investment in public transport and higher taxation on air travel and heavy goods vehicles' road usage are likely. The PVV is unlikely to return to previous levels of popularity as other parties have adopted more right-wing stances.

Arce is on course for a landslide win in Bolivia

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Support ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Right

Significance The result reveals the enduring strength of the MAS despite its ouster from office last year and twelve months of vitriolic criticism by the right-wing interim administration that replaced it. Impacts Beset by the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, the public is looking for stability, interrupted by last year’s frustrated elections. With strong social support, Arce will probably be best placed politically to weather upcoming economic difficulties. Arce will seek to build bridges with centrist politicians.

Italy's presidential vote carries significant risks

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Strong Indication ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance One of the front-runners to replace Mattarella is Prime Minister Mario Draghi, who recently gave a strong indication that he intends to run. However, if Draghi is elected president, there does not appear to be an alternative government which could guarantee political stability and make progress on Italy’s crucial reform agenda. Impacts A situation where there is no strong alternative to Draghi’s leadership may boost the electoral appeal of the far-right Brothers of Italy. The return of political instability would diminish Italy’s leverage in the EU regarding important issues such as foreign and fiscal policy. Unless the right-wing parties perform poorly, it is unlikely that Draghi would be elected as prime minister after the next election.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document