Central Asia will resist Russian offers of Syria role

Headline CENTRAL ASIA/SYRIA: No troop deployment

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 309-319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emma van Santen

Purpose This paper aims to examine the shift away from the traditional distinction between organised crime and terrorist groups towards their conceptual convergence under the crime-terror nexus narrative in the context of international security and development policy in post-Soviet Central Asia. It assesses the empirical basis for the crime-terror and state-crime nexus in three Central Asian countries – Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan – and argues that the exclusion of the state from the analytical framework undermines the relevance of the crime-terror paradigm for policy-making. Design/methodology/approach This paper draws on a literature review of academic research, recent case studies highlighting new empirical evidence in Central Asia and international policy publications. Findings There is a weak empirical connection between organised crime and Islamic extremists, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan and Hizbut Tahrir, in Central Asia. The state-crime paradigm, including concepts of criminal capture, criminal sovereignty and criminal penetration, hold more explanatory power for international policy in Central Asia. The crime-terror paradigm has resulted in a narrow and ineffective security-oriented law enforcement approach to counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism but does not address the underlying weak state governance structures and political grievances that motivate organised crime and terrorist groups respectively. Originality/value International policy and scholarship is currently focussed on the areas of convergence between organised crime and terrorist groups. This paper highlights the continued relevance of the traditional conceptual separation of terrorist and organised crime groups based on their different motives, methods and relationship with the state, for security and democratic governance initiatives in the under-researched Central Asian region.


2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (16) ◽  
pp. e00180-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rubina Paradiso ◽  
Massimiliano Orsini ◽  
Daniela Criscuolo ◽  
Rosanna Borrelli ◽  
Ornella Valvini ◽  
...  

ABSTRACT Brucellosis is a zoonotic disease that affects both humans and animals. Its distribution is global, concentrated in the Mediterranean area, India, Central Asia, and Latin America. Here, we present a complete genome assembly of 10 Brucella abortus strains isolated from water buffaloes farmed in the Campania region of Italy.


Significance The Taliban victory creates threats and some opportunities for Central Asian republics, three of which -- Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan -- border on Afghanistan. All except Tajikistan have indicated they will work with the new Afghan authorities. Impacts Russia and Central Asian states, except Tajikistan up to a point, will not back anti-Taliban resistance groups. Weak Afghan governance creates more scope for heroin trafficking through Central Asia. Although China is the more important economic player in Central Asia, it will defer to Russia on security matters.


2020 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-507
Author(s):  
Surya Nepal ◽  
Sae Woon Park ◽  
Sunhae Lee

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to empirically assess the impact of remittances on the economic performance of the 16 Asian developing countries, taking account of their institutional qualities.Design/methodology/approachA panel of 16 Asian developing countries (Central Asia, South Asia, and ASEAN) over the period of 2002–2016 is employed in the analysis. To assess the impact of remittances on economic performance in consideration of institutional quality, OLS estimates as well as GMM are used.FindingsThe effect of remittances on economic growth is statistically significant. In addition, they also impact economic growth when they interact with institutional or financial development variables. For the long-run growth process of Central Asian, South Asian, and ASEAN countries, a sound and smooth institutional framework appears to be indispensable. Also, it was found that more fragile economies tend to achieve bigger growth than less fragile economies, as this kind of growth is triggered by more remittances flowing into fragile economies. However, the impact of remittances on growth does not depend on the level of ICT. FDI and financial development have positive impact on growth.Research limitations/implicationsThere are limitations to this research as well. Due to the unavailability of data, several countries had to be removed from this study. The cost of sending money might be an important variable for this study. However, the data on this variable from reliable sources are almost impossible to gather. Therefore, this variable is also not included in this research. The savings from remittances when intermediated through formal financial channels will, in fact, produce a positive allocation and distribution of resources that may eventually become an important source of growth. However, one precondition for larger and greater growth is that remittances need to be well and properly utilized by the financial sector. Therefore, quality institutions should be formed first, which can facilitate investment activities and make the flow of remittances more convenient.Originality/valueThis paper exclusively considers the case of Asian developing countries (Central Asia, South Asia, and ASEAN) to assess the impact of remittances on the economic performance of these countries, with special consideration of the interaction effects of remittances and institutional quality in these emerging Asian economies. The previous studies on the effect of remittances on growth do not conform to one concrete conclusion. This study is undertaken in a bid to get the best possible result on the impact of remittances on the growth of the selected countries, majority of which attract substantial chunk of remittances into their economies.


2019 ◽  
Vol 57 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Egor Shitikov ◽  
Anna Vyazovaya ◽  
Maja Malakhova ◽  
Andrei Guliaev ◽  
Julia Bespyatykh ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTThe Central Asia outbreak (CAO) clade is a branch of theMycobacterium tuberculosisBeijing genotype that is associated with multidrug resistance, increased transmissibility, and epidemic spread in parts of the former Soviet Union. Furthermore, migration flows bring these strains far beyond their areas of origin. We aimed to find a specific molecular marker of the Beijing CAO clade and develop a simple and affordable method for its detection. Based on the bioinformatics analysis of the largeM. tuberculosiswhole-genome sequencing (WGS) data set (n = 1,398), we identified an IS6110insertion in theRv1359-Rv1360intergenic region as a specific molecular marker of the CAO clade. We further designed and optimized a multiplex PCR method to detect this insertion. The method was validatedin silicowith the recently published WGS data set from Central Asia (n = 277) and experimentally withM. tuberculosisisolates from European and Asian parts of Russia, the former Soviet Union, and East Asia (n = 319). The developed molecular assay may be recommended for rapid screening of retrospective collections and for prospective surveillance when comprehensive but expensive WGS is not available or practical. The assay may be especially useful in high multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) burden countries of the former Soviet Union and in countries with respective immigrant communities.


2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 311-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Kozłowski

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the perspectives of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) Belt and Road strategy. The challenge in terms of studying the New Silk Road concept comes from the fact of dramatic difference between the declared ambitions of the Chinese state and the elusive character of concrete Chinese involvement, in particular as far as the digital dimension of the strategy is concerned. Design/methodology/approach The goal will be achieved by comparing the Chinese expansion in the Post-Soviet Central Asia with nowadays declarations concerning the digital version of the New Silk Road. For China, the Post-Soviet Central Asia was the first frontier approached on the basis of genuinely own integration strategy: the New Silk Road Diplomacy, which later evolved into the New Silk Road concept. An overview of Chinese activity in the region tells a lot about its grand strategy of today. Findings To paraphrase T.S. Kuhn, what one sees depends on not only what one is looking at but also what one has learned to notice. The Post-Soviet Central Asia shows the way Beijing thinks about integration. PRC achieved the most by basing on the free rider effect: concentrating on economic expansion, while other Powers provided relative regional security and stability. Originality/value The comparison of the beginnings of the New Silk Diplomacy in the 1990s with the plans of the New Digital Road gives a unique angle to grasp the specific features of the Chinese approach to international integration.


Subject Prospects for Russia/CIS in the third quarter. Significance The third quarter could see a significant worsening of Russia's ties with the West. With the Donbas crisis threatening to erupt into open war as in 2014 and early 2015, the Minsk 2.0 process is strained to breaking-point. Recent months have seen the gradual deterioration of the February peace plan, with heavier skirmishing culminating in the recent battle for Maryinka. In Ukraine, the economic situation remains a major problem. In Central Asia, regional economies are suffering from Russia's slowdown, as some strengthen their integration with Russia as part of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU).


Subject Chinese security assistance to Afghanistan and Tajikistan. Significance China is reportedly providing direct aid to Afghanistan's security forces, including base-building, contributions of equipment and joint patrols to strengthen links and capacity. Some interpret this as a sign of a rising power expanding its military activities beyond its borders and expect Beijing to become more active in the region's political affairs. Impacts Chinese economic involvement in Tajikistan may eventually bring some political leverage. Expanding Chinese economic involvement with Central Asia does not necessarily mean a greater military presence will follow. Regional governments and Western stakeholders alike will be frustrated by China's unwillingness to take a leadership role in Afghanistan.


Significance The population is set to shrink until at least 2036. To support labour productivity as a factor for GDP growth, President Vladimir Putin has set out plans to encourage families and reduce premature death that may realistically slow but not reverse the trend. Impacts Opposition groups will try to capitalise on popular discontent provoked by impending increases in retirement age. New individual financial savings products are needed to help working people plan for future. Permanent immigration from Central Asia and the Caucasus will deplete those countries' labour forces, harming growth prospects.


Subject The Iranian budget. Significance Speeches marking the Iranian New Year (Nowruz) on March 21 highlighted disagreements between Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani. While both promoted a ‘resistance economy’, each meant something different. The recently published budget for the 2017-18 fiscal year highlights divisions and linkages between the two philosophies. Impacts Real GDP growth in 2017 will not be much above 3.0% and will rise to 4.5% in the medium term. Rising tensions with Washington will further boost defence spending, crowding out development. Additional US congressional sanctions, or even threat of sanctions, are likely to depress investor confidence. New transport links to Central Asia may significantly increase trade.


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