Elections will fragment Moroccan political landscape

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Headline MOROCCO: Elections will fragment political landscape

Iran's Rouhani could take up his mentor’s mantle

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Power ◽  
Gulf Cooperation Council ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Political Factions

Significance Rafsanjani, who had lost much overt political power over the past decade, was an important behind-the-scenes power broker in a deeply divided political landscape. He supported President Hassan Rouhani and centrist and reformist political factions. He was also an ardent advocate of economic liberalisation and Iranian rapprochement with the West. Impacts Economic benefits from the nuclear deal will be key to Rouhani’s reconnection with his political base. Rafsanjani's death could trigger a hard-line reaction that could boost tensions with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries. If 77-year-old Khamenei were also to pass away, regime instability might increase.

Russia will seek influence in Moldova's Gagauz region

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Economic Support ◽  
Speed Up ◽  
European Parties ◽  
Potential Pressure ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, the June 14 local elections resulted overall in the pro-European parties winning 56.5%, with the pro-Russians securing 31.5%. The result will be a relief for the pro-European camp, which had feared that the ongoing banking scandal -- which has seen 1 billion dollars go missing and the resignation on June 12 of Prime Minister Chiril Gaburici -- could portend an upsurge in support for pro-Russian groups. However, despite the pro-European win, Moldova's Gagauz region remains one of Russia's strongest supporters and will remain a potential pressure point. Impacts Russia's enduring prominence in Gagauzia's political landscape will give Moscow a foothold in Moldovan politics. Russia's interest in Moldovan politics will prompt Moldovan supporters of European integration to speed up that process. The EU will have to continue to support Moldova's economy, if only to match Russia's economic support for Gagauzia.

Prospects for Turkey in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Global Liquidity

Subject Prospects for Turkey in 2016. Significance This month's decisive electoral victory for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has re-established President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's grip over the political landscape. In the economy, another challenging year lies ahead, wıth global liquidity tightening under way and European and regional economies still weak.

Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

Brazil security policy proposals will prompt fears

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Police Officers ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Armed Forces ◽  
Public Security ◽  
State Governments ◽  
Security Issue ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect ◽  
Policy Proposals

Subject Public security policy under the incoming government. Significance The new political landscape following the recent elections has accelerated the trend towards militarisation of public security responses to crime. President-elect Jair Bolsonaro has pledged to increase the focus on imprisonment and make it easier for police officers to shoot criminals. This is especially worrying in Rio de Janeiro, where a key Bolsonaro ally was elected governor and promised to form sniper teams to shoot suspected criminals, including from helicopters. Impacts The armed forces’ representation in the future cabinet will reinforce the narrative of crime as a ‘national security’ issue. The army may be deployed more frequently on the streets. Bolsonaro’s public security promises will require negotiations with state governments with direct responsibility for crime fighting. Disputes over the constitutionality of a plan to free police officers from prosecution may prompt fierce political and juridical debate.

Georgian protests point to more united opposition

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Political Instability ◽  
Proportional Representation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
The Government

Significance Parliament's failure last month to enact the promised transition to proportional representation sparked demonstrations in Tbilisi and other cities. The ruling Georgian Dream-Democratic Georgia party's immediate position seems safe, but it will have to reckon with signs that a more confident, determined and united opposition is emerging out of the previously diffuse political landscape. Impacts A bout of political instability would reduce the inflow of foreign direct investment. Russia's instinct to exploit turmoil will be curbed by its reluctance to see the opposition win. To address one area of discontent, the government may unblock the Anaklia port project.

Malaysia’s political landscape will fragment further

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Political Elites ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Opposition Party

Significance Mahathir Mohamad, whom Muhyiddin replaced as premier earlier this year, has formed a new opposition party that stands apart from the main opposition Pakatan Harapan (PH) alliance. Mistrust among political elites is growing ahead of a snap election in eastern Malaysia’s Sabah state. Impacts UMNO will quickly turn attention to negotiations with partners over seat allocations for the next parliamentary poll. Mahathir’s new party will erode support for the PPBM, especially at state level. Corruption trials will continue to blight both government and opposition leaders.

Disparate new Montenegrin government looks fragile

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Significance Decades of one-party rule by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) ended at the August 30 elections, which delivered a stinging rebuke to veteran strongman Milo Djukanovic. For 30 years he has dominated the political landscape, alternating between the roles of prime minister and president, occasionally exercising power from behind the scenes. Impacts Brussels in particular will seek reassurance that the new government will adhere to Djukanovic’s generally pro-Western line. The election shows that, contrary to external assessments, democracy is alive in Montenegro and even a long-standing autocrat can be ousted. Despite its leaders’ protestations, the coalition’s composition suggests a closer relationship with Serbia and Russia. The change from the familiar Djukanovic regime with its favoured client links can be expected to weaken FDI, already reduced by COVID-19. Attacks on Bosniaks in Montenegro may lead to demonstrations by co-religionists in Bosnia, destabilising an inherently unstable country.

Outsider Ko Wen-je could become Taiwan's president

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Political Party ◽  
The United States ◽  
Election Campaigns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Subject Profile of Ko Wen-je. Significance There are strong indications that Ko Wen-je, the independent mayor of Taipei, will run for election as Taiwan’s president in January 2020. Presidential hopefuls often launch their election campaigns with US trips to shore up relations with Washington, Taiwan’s key security backer; Ko will make a nine-day visit to the United States later this month. He also stated last month that he was considering forming a new political party; the single reason he would need a party of his own would be to make a run for the presidency. Impacts Ko would be a controversial and probably one-term president. Ko could have a game-changing impact in the short term but is unlikely to alter Taiwan's political landscape fundamentally in the long term. Ko would likely take a more moderate stance on China than Tsai does. Ko's outspokenness is what makes him popular, but it also makes him prone to gaffes that could ultimately undermine him.

Tunisian labour union may seek direct political power

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Power ◽  
Youth Unemployment ◽  
Electoral Participation ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Significance Exacerbated by terrorism and political feuding between Islamist and secular parties, economic difficulties have provided the powerful UGTT with an opportunity to exert more influence over politics. How the labour union uses this power will greatly impact Tunisia’s political landscape ahead of and following the 2019 elections. Impacts Persistently high youth unemployment may lead to low electoral participation in 2019 as it did in 2014. Political infighting may scare off potential foreign investors. The prime minister's popularity may suffer ahead of the elections given continued economic woes.

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