Prospects for Turkey in 2016

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Justice And Development Party ◽  
Global Liquidity

Subject Prospects for Turkey in 2016. Significance This month's decisive electoral victory for the Justice and Development Party (AKP) has re-established President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's grip over the political landscape. In the economy, another challenging year lies ahead, wıth global liquidity tightening under way and European and regional economies still weak.

Political restructuring is on the way in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
General Election ◽  
The Political ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Protest Movements ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
President Elect

Subject Changes to the political landscape. Significance This year’s general election has transformed the political landscape that prevailed for over two decades in Brazil. The centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) were pushed away from the mainstream by a surging far-right led by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro. After winning four straight presidential elections, the Workers’ Party (PT) was defeated in the runoff. It retains some leverage, but now faces increasingly serious challenges to its hegemony on the centre-left. Impacts Ineffective management of relations with Congress could undermine Bolsonaro’s ability to pass key legislation. Protest movements not aligned to established parties could proliferate in the coming years. Bolsonaro’s Social Liberal Party (PSL) will fail to establish itself as a leading party in the longer term.

Disparate new Montenegrin government looks fragile

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape

Significance Decades of one-party rule by the Democratic Party of Socialists (DPS) ended at the August 30 elections, which delivered a stinging rebuke to veteran strongman Milo Djukanovic. For 30 years he has dominated the political landscape, alternating between the roles of prime minister and president, occasionally exercising power from behind the scenes. Impacts Brussels in particular will seek reassurance that the new government will adhere to Djukanovic’s generally pro-Western line. The election shows that, contrary to external assessments, democracy is alive in Montenegro and even a long-standing autocrat can be ousted. Despite its leaders’ protestations, the coalition’s composition suggests a closer relationship with Serbia and Russia. The change from the familiar Djukanovic regime with its favoured client links can be expected to weaken FDI, already reduced by COVID-19. Attacks on Bosniaks in Montenegro may lead to demonstrations by co-religionists in Bosnia, destabilising an inherently unstable country.

Macron could change France's political landscape

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Political Movement ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
First Time ◽  
Do So

Subject Emmanuel Macron's political movement. Significance The political movement En Marche (Let's Go) was founded by France's Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron on April 6. It is the first time that a party has been launched by a minister while still in office. Macron has so far shown no intention of resigning but he may have to do so later this year as criticism about his ambiguous status is mounting from within government ranks. Impacts Macron's novel approach is likely to appeal to those frustrated with established parties and lack of progress. Support for the movement could encourage the next government to attempt more far-reaching reforms. The movement provides him with a platform that will help his future political ambitions.

Iceland’s snap election outcome will raise uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Election Outcome ◽  
The Political ◽  
Green Movement ◽  
Political Fragmentation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Key Issues ◽  
Political Spectrum ◽  
Number Of Parties

Significance The political landscape is now even more fractured than before, with the number of parties entering parliament increasing from the traditional four or five, to eight. Impacts Increased political fragmentation calls for broader coalitions and greater cooperation across the political spectrum. No three-party coalition is possible unless the Left-Green Movement and the Independence Party both participate, which appears unlikely. The revelations of the Panama Papers, which catapulted the last government out of office, appear to have lost significance. The political focus has turned to taxation and economic growth, which will be key issues for the next government. The pro-EU parties are probably not strong enough to demand a membership referendum.

Tensions will simmer in Ecuador despite subsidy U-turn

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Unions ◽  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Military Action ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Indigenous Groups ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Imf

Significance The move, designed to help meet IMF loan conditions, triggered two weeks of protests by indigenous movements, trade unions, students and others, which brought the country to a halt and threatened to topple the government. Heavy-handed police and military action exacerbated the violence, which resulted in hundreds of arrests and at least eight deaths. Moreno’s U-turn has put an end to the unrest for now but deep divisions (and IMF requirements) remain. Impacts Correa and his supporters will seize on Moreno’s inability to maintain order and his decision to back down in the face of protests. Indigenous groups will be emboldened by Moreno’s U-turn and will continue resisting key elements of the government’s economic programme. Relations with the IMF have returned to centre stage and will shape the political landscape as the 2021 presidential elections approach.

The socio-cultural dynamics of development: part 3 development through agency theory

Kybernetes ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 49 (7) ◽  
pp. 1871-1898
Author(s):  
Maurice Yolles
Keyword(s):  
Agency Theory ◽  
Political Development ◽  
Development Theory ◽  
The Political ◽  
Cultural Dynamics ◽  
Activity System ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Political Groups ◽  
Adaptive Activity

Purpose Agency is inherently an institution and involves dynamic socio-cultural processes that facilitate development. This paper is written in three parts. The purpose in Part 1 was to represent agency theory as an institutional theory, and consideration was made of the relationship between development, growth and globalisation. In Part 2, the purpose was to explore development with respect to the political context, explaining in terms of culture under what conditions political groups may come to power. Using political frames intended to define their nature and realities, they seek to attract agents in their political sphere to gain administrative power. In this Part 3, the purpose of this paper is to model, using cybernetic agency theory, the nature of development and reduction to instrumentality. Design/methodology/approach Development theory is a multidisciplinary field in which research and theories are clustered together and set within an adaptive institutional activity system framework. An adaptive activity system has a plural membership of agents represented by agency. In Parts 1 and 2 of this paper, agency was shown to have an institutional basis. Activity system development was also explained as a process of institutional evolution, and its potential was shown to provide power acquisition in a political landscape by competitive political frames which vie for support in a place of potentially susceptible agents. Here in Part 3, agency theory will be used to model the dynamic relationships between political frames and the agents that they wish to attract by projecting both cognitive and emotional structures, this enabling the anticipation of behaviour. Findings These relate to the three parts of the paper taken together. Agency is an evolutionary institutional system that can represent socio-political development. A model for political development has been created that identifies the conditions under which formal political groups are able to promote frames of policy to attract support from autonomous agents that constitute the membership of the activity system, and hence gain agency status. On the way to this, it connects Bauman’s theory of liquid modernity to Sorokin’s theory of socio-cultural dynamics and cultural stability. One result is the notion of liquid development, an unstable condition of development in adaptive activity systems. Agency theory can usefully explain detailed changes in agency, the relationships between agency agents, and interactions between agencies, this embracing institutional processes. Research limitations/implications The implication of this research is that it will allow empirical methods to be used that potentially enables political outcomes in complex socio-political environments to be anticipated, given additional appropriate measurement criteria. Originality/value The synergy of agency and institutional theories to explain the process of development is new, as is its application to the political development process in a political landscape. As part of this synergistic process, it has been shown how Bauman’s concept of liquidity relates to Sorokin’s ideas of socio-cultural change.

Prospects for the United States to end-2021

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Affairs ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
White House ◽  
Political Landscape

Subject Prospects for the United States to end-2021. Significance The political landscape for the remainder of the year will be dominated by internal Democratic efforts to secure support for the White House agenda from various factions of the party. With the Biden administration’s momentum slowing as it faces the challenge of converting initiatives into legislation, the second half of 2021 is likely to see the White House placing a greater emphasis on foreign affairs.

Hollande may stand again but right look stronger

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
The Political ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Marine Le Pen ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Right ◽  
New Generation ◽  
Nicolas Sarkozy

Subject The political outlook after the 'departement' elections. Significance Following the March 2015 'departement' elections, four candidates are emerging as front-runners for the 2017 presidential election in their respective camps. After enjoying a political comeback in recent months and seeing internal Socialist Party (PS) and other left-wing opposition sidelined, President Francois Hollande will now almost certainly be able to run for re-election as the PS candidate. Former Prime Minister Alain Juppe and former President Nicolas Sarkozy are battling for control of the centre-right, divided principally by strategy towards immigration, Islam and the National Front (FN). FN leader Marine Le Pen has emerged from a decisive showdown with her father as an even stronger far-right candidate. The political landscape has shifted to the right. Impacts Having re-established some stability around his presidency, Hollande is now unlikely to risk it by pursuing economic reforms. Hollande could aggravate divisions among the Greens and on the far left by including Green ministers in the government in coming months. As potential presidents, both Juppe and Sarkozy appear willing to engage in substantial structural reform. Jean-Marie Le Pen's final political exit will allow a new generation to take definitive charge of the FN and complete its 'detoxification'.

Romanian protests will invigorate pro-reform forces

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Democratic Party ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The Political ◽  
Social Democratic Party ◽  
Checks And Balances ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Democratic ◽  
East European ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Dominant Parties

Subject The political fallout from anti-government demonstrations. Significance Popular protests unprecedented in size since the restoration of democracy in 1990 have forced a major government retreat. On February 5, Prime Minister Sorin Grindeanu withdrew emergency decrees intended to decriminalise corruption offences and pardon politicians convicted of graft. The ruling Social Democratic Party (PSD) is struggling to adapt to the much-altered political landscape. Impacts Fears that Romania is following an East European pattern where dominant parties dismantle checks and balances will be quieted for now. Iohannis’s boldness in the crisis will make him a strong counterweight to the PSD. Reforms designed to clean up politics will be buttressed by the commitment of Romania’s main Western allies.

Guatemala’s ‘economic wall’ will present challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Tax Reform ◽  
Living Standards ◽  
The Political ◽  
Export Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Landscape ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
High Crime ◽  
Outward Migration

Subject Economic update. Significance Guatemala has been one of the better economic performers in Latin America in the last decade. Growth is expected to pick up this year, boosted by strong remittances and private consumption underpinned by a strong macroeconomic framework. Nevertheless, low living standards, high crime rates and a shortfall in infrastructure and human capital have triggered widespread popular disillusionment with the political establishment and driven high levels of outward migration. Impacts US threats of tariffs and remittance taxes will hinder efforts to renegotiate the controversial ‘safe third country’ deal. The highly fragmented political landscape leaves little hope for much-needed tax reform. A slowdown in the US economy would reduce remittances and export demand, weakening the external accounts and dampening growth.

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