Forecasting stock returns in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia

2018 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-279 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelmonem Oueslati ◽  
Yacine Hammami
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Equity Premium ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
The Us ◽  
Diffusion Index ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the performance of various return forecasting variables and methods in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. The authors document that market excess returns in Saudi Arabia are predicted by changes in oil prices, the dividend yield and inflation, whereas the equity premium in Malaysia is predicted only by the US market excess returns. In both countries, the authors find that the diffusion index is the best forecasting method and stock return predictability is stronger in expansions than in recessions. To interpret the findings, the authors perform two tests. The empirical results suggest irrational pricing in Malaysia and rationally time-varying expected returns in Saudi Arabia. Design/methodology/approach The authors apply the state-of-the-art in-sample and out-of-sample forecasting techniques to predict stock returns in Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. Findings The Saudi equity premium is predicted by oil prices, dividend yield and inflation. The Malaysian equity premium is predicted by the US market excess returns. In both countries, the authors find that the diffusion index is the best forecasting method. In both countries, predictability is stronger in expansions than in recessions. The tests suggest irrational pricing in Malaysia and rationality in Saudi Arabia. Practical implications The empirical results have some practical implications. The fact that stock returns are predictable in Saudi Arabia makes it possible for policymakers to better evaluate future business conditions, and thus to take appropriate decisions regarding economic and monetary policy. In Malaysia, the results of this study have interesting implications for portfolio management. The fact that the Malaysian market seems to be inefficient suggests the presence of strong opportunities for sophisticated investors, such as hedge and mutual funds. Originality/value First, there are no papers that have studied the return predictability in Saudi Arabia in spite of its importance as an emerging market. Second, the methods that combine all predictive variables such as the diffusion index or the kitchen sink methods have not been implemented in emerging markets. Third, this paper is the first study to deal with time-varying short-horizon predictability in emerging countries.

OCIE issues risk alert on the most frequently identified advisory fee and expense compliance issues

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 1-3
Author(s):  
Robert Van Grover
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Investment Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Informed Decisions ◽  
Policies And Procedures ◽  
The Us ◽  
Investment Advisers ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose To summarize and interpret a Risk Alert issued on April 12, 2018 by the US SEC’s Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations (OCIE) on the most frequent advisory fee and expense compliance issues identified in recent examinations of investment advisers. Design/methodology/approach Summarizes deficiencies identified by the OCIE staff pertaining to advisory fees and expenses in the following categories: fee billing based on incorrect account valuations, billing fees in advance or with improper frequency, applying incorrect fee rates, omitting rebates and applying discounts incorrectly, disclosure issues involving advisory fees, and adviser expense misallocations. Findings In the Risk Alert, OCIE staff emphasized the importance of disclosures regarding advisory fees and expenses to the ability of clients to make informed decisions, including whether or not to engage or retain an adviser. Practical implications In light of the issues identified in the Risk Alert, advisers should assess the accuracy of disclosures and adequacy of policies and procedures regarding advisory fee billing and expenses. As a matter of best practice, advisers should implement periodic forensic reviews of billing practices to identify and correct issues relating to fee billing and expenses. Originality/value Expert guidance from experienced investment management lawyer.

Does the second wave of COVID-19 undermine corporate immunity? International evidence

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Huy Viet Hoang ◽  
Cuong Nguyen ◽  
Khanh Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Second Wave ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis study compares the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns in the first two waves of infection across selected markets, given built-in corporate immunity before the global outbreak.Design/methodology/approachThe data are collected from listed firms in five markets that have experienced the second wave of COVID-19 contagion, namely the United States (US), Australia, China, Hong Kong and South Korea. The period of investigation in this study ranges from January 24 to August 28, 2020 to cover the first two COVID-19 waves in selected markets. The study estimates the research model by employing the ordinary least square method with fixed effects to control for the heterogeneity that may confound the empirical outcomes.FindingsThe analysis reveals that firms with larger size and more cash reserves before the COVID-19 outbreak have better stock performance under the first wave; however, these advantages impede stock resilience during the second wave. Corporate governance practices significantly influence stock returns only in the first wave as their effects fade when the second wave emerges. The results also suggest that in economies with greater power distance, although stock price depreciation was milder in the first wave, it is more intense when new cases again surge after the first wave was contained.Practical implicationsThis paper provides practical implications for corporate managers, policymakers and governments concerning crisis management strategies for COVID-19 and future pandemics.Originality/valueThis study is the first to evaluate built-in corporate immunity before the COVID-19 shock under successive contagious waves. Besides, this study accentuates the importance of cultural understanding in weathering the ongoing pandemic across different markets.

Weather, investor psychology and stock returns: evidence from Fiji's stock market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Janesh Sami
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Pricing Models ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThis paper investigates whether weather affects stock market returns in Fiji's stock market.Design/methodology/approachThe author employed an exponential general autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (EGARCH) modeling framework to examine the effect of weather changes on stock market returns over the sample period 9/02/2000–31/12/2020.FindingsThe results show that weather (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) have robust but heterogenous effects on stock market returns in Fiji.Research limitations/implicationsIt is useful for scholars to modify asset pricing models to include weather-related variables (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) to better understand Fiji's stock market dynamics (even though they are often viewed as economically neutral variables).Practical implicationsInvestors and traders should consider their mood while making stock market decisions to lessen mood-induced errors.Originality/valueThis is the first attempt to examine the effect of weather (temperature, rain, humidity and sunshine duration) on stock market returns in Fiji's stock market.

Registered nurses’ knowledge and care practices regarding patients with dysphagia in Saudi Arabia

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (8) ◽  
pp. 896-909
Author(s):  
Manal Abdullah Khoja
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Brain Injuries ◽  
Practical Knowledge ◽  
Tertiary Hospital ◽  
Further Education ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Speech And Language Pathologists ◽  
Self Administered Questionnaire ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the knowledge and practices of nursing staff caring for patients with dysphagia to determine any needs for further education programmes. Design/methodology/approach A self-administered questionnaire with close-ended questions was completed by nurses at a tertiary hospital in Saudi Arabia to measure the depth of their dysphagia knowledge. Findings From 316 potential participants, a sample of 174 nurses completed the questionnaire. The results revealed that the participants had partial theoretical and practical knowledge about nursing care for patients with dysphagia. Of interest, 78 per cent of the nurses reported that they had received less than 1 h of training in dysphagia, and only 4 per cent were aware of speech and language pathologists’ role in dysphagia management. Practical implications As the medical professionals who have the most contact with the patients, nurses have a central role in the care of patients with dysphagia. This study provides information that will guide strategies for in-service nurse education dysphagia programmes. Originality/value The estimated Saudi prevalence of dysphagia is high due to increased incidence of medical conditions commonly associated with dysphagia, such as stroke, cerebral palsy and traumatic brain injuries from traffic accidents. Nurses play a pivotal role in caring for these patients. However, little is known about the level of care patients with dysphagia require in Saudi hospital settings.

The SEC turns up the heat on private equity expense allocations

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 35-38
Author(s):  
Samuel Lieberman ◽  
John T. Araneo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Services ◽  
Private Equity ◽  
Equity Fund ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Private Equity Fund ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Compliance Programs ◽  
Raising Awareness ◽  
The Us ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose To discuss the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (“SEC’s”) increasing focus on disclosure and conflict-of-interest problems arising from how private equity fund (“PE Fund”) managers allocate expenses between management and fund investors. Design/methodology/approach This article summarizes the background of this focus on expense allocations and, drawing from the recent SEC enforcement actions focused on this issue, and identifies the types of both expenses and disclosures that have caught SEC attention. Findings After spending the first two or three years post Dodd-Frank raising awareness of these issues, the SEC has begun to impose large fines over expense-allocation conflicts and disclosure issues. Practical implications It is imperative for PE Fund managers to retain counsel to review their fund offering documents, expense allocation practices, and compliance programs to ensure consistency with the SEC’s recent decisions on these issues. Originality/value Practical guidance from experienced financial services lawyers.

Limit Up–Limit Down: an effective response to the “Flash Crash”?

2016 ◽  
Vol 24 (4) ◽  
pp. 420-429 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktoria Dalko
Keyword(s):  
High Frequency ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Flash Crash ◽  
Price Momentum ◽  
Legal Enforcement ◽  
The Us ◽  
Contemporary Reality ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s new regulation, Limit Up–Limit Down (LULD), against the background of manipulative high-frequency trading (HFT). Design/methodology/approach This paper examines the background of HFT and related manipulative tactics by reviewing 43 articles of empirical research. It also examines areas in which LULD is effective and those in which LULD fails. The assessment of LULD is completed with a comparison between computerized regulation and legal enforcement in the contemporary reality of electronic trading platforms. Findings The paper points out the effectiveness of LULD in regulating wild price volatility as well as its insufficiency when facing orderly but fast price momentum ignited by manipulative HFT such as “spoofing”. Practical implications The findings may provide assistance to lawmakers and regulators to improve LULD regulation. Originality/value This paper is the first attempt to assess LULD regulation against a comprehensive background of manipulative HFT. The paper is of value to other researchers concerned about the instability to the equity market that manipulative HFT can create. The paper is also of interest to policymakers in designing effective regulation in the high-frequency era.

Virtual currency in sanctioned jurisdictions: stepping outside of SWIFT

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 39-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katherine Kirkpatrick ◽  
Christine Savage ◽  
Russell Johnston ◽  
Matthew Hanson
Keyword(s):  
Best Practices ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Virtual Currency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Expert Analysis ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Foreign Assets

Purpose To understand and analyze sanctions evasion and enforcement via virtual currencies. Design/methodology/approach Discusses various jurisdictions’ attempts to further the use of virtual currency to facilitate and maximize access to international funds; analyzes the aspects that make virtual currency uniquely suited to evade sanctions; suggests best practices for industry participants to be sure to account for the differences in crypto asset structure and related risks. Findings The US Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) has explicitly stated that despite virtual currency’s anonymity, industry participants are still responsible for policing and enforcing client compliance. Although sanctioned jurisdictions are thinking creatively about ways around SWIFT, the use of virtual currency to skirt sanctions presents certain challenges. Practical implications Virtual currency industry participants should understand OFAC’s specific guidance regarding compliance obligations in the cryptocurrency space, and should implement best practices and conservative measures to avoid unknowingly running afoul of sanctions laws. Originality/value Expert analysis and guidance from experienced investigations and sanctions lawyers.

Determinants of capital structure of banks: evidence from the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoaib Khan ◽  
Usman Bashir ◽  
Md. Saiful Islam
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Kingdom Of Saudi Arabia ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Earnings Volatility ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
The Capital Structure

Purpose The purpose of this study is to investigate the most important factors that affect the capital structure of commercial banks in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Design/methodology/approach This study uses annual data of 11 Saudi commercial, national banks listed on the tadawul Saudi stock exchange for the period 2010–2017. Data was collected from the banks financial statements, tadawul annual publications and Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority. By constructing a balanced panel, this study uses pooled ordinary least squares regression along with fixed effects and random effects to examine the relationship between the bank’s book leverage as the dependent variable and bank-specific explanatory variables that include profitability, tangibility, earnings volatility, growth opportunities and bank size, while controlling for macroeconomic conditions. Findings The findings of this study suggest that banks in Saudi Arabia are highly leveraged, endorsing the fact that the nature of banks’ business is different from non-banking firms. Earnings volatility, growth and bank size show positive and significant relations with book leverage. Profitability and tangibility are negatively related to the book leverage. Empirically, the explanatory variables profitability, earnings volatility, tangibility, growth and bank size have material effects on the capital structure decisions of Saudi commercial banks. In summary, the determinants of capital structure for Saudi banks are the same as those of non-financial firms but are distinctive in nature. Research limitations/implications An extensive study on all the banks operating in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries is suggested. Practical implications The findings have practical implications for bank managers, which will help them to identify the bank-specific factors affecting the capital structure and choose the values enhancing optimal capital structure. The results of this study can assist regulatory agencies to formulate an effective regulatory framework. Moreover, the findings lay a foundation for the development of financial sector under the umbrella of the Vision 2030 program in the Kingdom. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first study to explore the factors affecting the capital structure choices of commercial banks operating in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the findings of the study would prove useful in detailed studies of capital structure in the GCC countries as well.

The global entrepreneurship index as a benchmarking tool? Criticisms from an efficiency perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Edmundo Inacio Junior ◽  
Eduardo Avancci Dionisio ◽  
Bruno Brandão Fischer ◽  
Yanchao Li ◽  
Dirk Meissner
Keyword(s):  
Resource Constraints ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Data Envelopment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Us ◽  
Global Entrepreneurship ◽  
National Systems ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Entrepreneurial Dynamics

PurposeBased on an efficiency analysis of the Global Entrepreneurship Index (GEI), the purpose was to demonstrate that the Key Performance Indicators’ analysis leads to a misinterpretation of the dynamics of National Systems of Entrepreneurship (NSEs). This might hamper the formulation of sound initiatives in other economies, with relevant implications for developing countries.Design/methodology/approachThis study categorized GEI indicators into output and input indicators. Following this procedure, each dimension was analyzed separately and then compared to each other, considering countries’ productivity rates. The main focus is given to the case of the US, the usual benchmark for NSEs and leader in the GEI Index. Lastly, a taxonomy of NSEs according to their efficiency levels was developed.FindingsThe findings of the analysis demonstrates that innovation-driven economies with lower positions in GEI ranking often have higher productivity rates when compared to economies with higher positions in GEI ranking. Specifically, the US appears not to be a good benchmark in terms of NSE efficiency.Research limitations/implicationsThe study’s approach is limited in scope by data availability on NSEs and the use of GEI, a representation of aggregate patterns of country-level entrepreneurial dynamics. More refined data are needed in order to clarify some insights from this research.Practical implicationsThe perception of systemic efficiency should be considered more thoroughly when designing dedicated entrepreneurship-oriented policies in other countries that aim at establishing a more vibrant entrepreneurial system while facing resource constraints.Social implicationsSimplistic views of systemic aspects may hamper the formulation of sound entrepreneurship-oriented initiatives with particularly relevant implications for public policy in laggard economies.Originality/valueThe value of this article relies on applied a simple metric – efficiency ratio – order than, e.g. data envelopment analysis to portray a key issue related to the interpretation of supranational rankings related to the entrepreneurship ecosystem make mainly by policymakers and scholars that is: pick the 1st one, follow the leader.

SEC adopts rules and interpretive guidance designed to enhance and clarify the obligations of financial professionals

2019 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 35-44
Author(s):  
Michael R. Rosella ◽  
Vadim Avdeychik ◽  
Justin R. Capozzi
Keyword(s):  
Historical Context ◽  
Legal Counsel ◽  
Legal Analysis ◽  
Best Interest ◽  
Extensive Experience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Investment Advisers ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This article provides an overview of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) recent approval of a package of rulemakings and interpretations designed to enhance the quality and transparency of investors’ relationships with investment advisers and broker-dealers. Design/Methodology/Approach The article provides legal analysis for and historical context of the requirements of the SEC’s adopted rules, Regulation Best Interest and Form CRS in addition to the two separate interpretations under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, the Standard of Conduct for Investment Advisers; and the Broker-Dealer Exclusion from the Definition of Investment Adviser. Findings The SEC’s adopted regulatory package does not adopt a uniform fiduciary standard for broker-dealers and investment advisers but instead promulgates legal requirements and mandated disclosures in order to conform to the SEC’s perceived expectations for reasonable investors. Practical implications Investment advisers and broker-dealers should consult with their legal counsel in assessing how and to what extent the new regulatory package is applicable to them. Originality/Value This article provides practical guidance from lawyers who have extensive experience with the Investment Company Act, Investment Advisers Act, and the Securities Acts.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document