Asymmetric relationship of investor sentiment with stock return and volatility: evidence from India

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 435-454
Author(s):  
Madhumita Chakraborty ◽  
Sowmya Subramaniam
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
Quantile Causality

PurposeThe study examines the cross-sectional and asymmetric relationship of investor sentiment with the stock returns and volatility in India.Design/methodology/approachThe investor sentiment is captured using a market-based measure Market Mood Index (MMI) and a survey-based measure Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI). The asymmetric effect of the relationship is examined using quantile causality approach and cross-sectional effect is examined by considering indices such as the BSE Sensex, and the various size indices such as BSE Large cap, BSE Mid cap and BSE Small cap.FindingsThe result of the study found that investor sentiment (MMI) cause stock returns at extreme quantiles. Lower sentiment induces fear-induced selling, thereby lowers the returns and high sentiment is followed by lower future returns as market reverts to fundamentals. On the other hand, bullish shifts in sentiment lower the volatility. There exists a positive feedback effect of stock return and volatility in the formation of investor sentiment.Originality/valueThe study captures both asymmetric and cross-sectional relationship of investor sentiment and stock market in an emerging economy, India. The study uses a novel data set (i.e.) MMI which captures the sentiment based on market indicators and are widely disseminated to the public.

Does uncertainty boost overconfidence? The case of financial analysts' forecasts

2014 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 300-324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Véronique Bessière ◽  
Taoufik Elkemali
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Private Information ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Forecast Dispersion ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Announcement ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Sectional Analysis

Purpose – This article aims to examine the link between uncertainty and analysts' reaction to earnings announcements for a sample of European firms during the period 1997-2007. In the same way as Daniel et al., the authors posit that overconfidence leads to an overreaction to private information followed by an underreaction when the information becomes public. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, the authors test analysts' overconfidence through the overreaction preceding a public announcement followed by an underreaction after the announcement. If overconfidence occurs, over- and underreactions should be, respectively, observed before and after the public announcement. If uncertainty boosts overconfidence, the authors predict that these two combined misreactions should be stronger when uncertainty is higher. Uncertainty is defined according to technology intensity, and separate two types of firms: high-tech or low-tech. The authors use a sample of European firms during the period 1997-2007. Findings – The results support the overconfidence hypothesis. The authors jointly observe the two phenomena of under- and overreaction. Overreaction occurs when the information has not yet been made public and disappears just after public release. The results also show that both effects are more important for the high-tech subsample. For robustness, the authors sort the sample using analyst forecast dispersion as a proxy for uncertainty and obtain similar results. The authors also document that the high-tech stocks crash in 2000-2001 moderated the overconfidence of analysts, which then strongly declined during the post-crash period. Originality/value – This study offers interesting insights in two ways. First, in the area of financial markets, it provides a test of a major over- and underreaction model and implements it to analysts' reactions through their revisions (versus investors' reactions through stock returns). Second, in a broader way, it deals with the link between uncertainty and biases. The results are consistent with the experimental evidence and extend it to a cross-sectional analysis that reinforces it as pointed out by Kumar.

Measuring gambling activity in options market

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bei Chen ◽  
Quan Gan
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Return Predictability ◽  
Capital Gains ◽  
Gambling Activity ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Option Returns ◽  
Model Free

PurposeThis paper investigates how the gambling measure captures market bubble events, and how it predicts stock return and option return.Design/methodology/approachThis paper proposes a gambling activity measure by jointly considering open interest and moneyness of out-of-the-money (OTM) individual equity call options.FindingsThe new measure, CallMoney, captures excessive optimism during the dot-com bubble, the oil price bubble and the pre-GFC stock market bubble. CallMoney robustly and negatively predicts both OTM and at-the-money call option returns cross-sectionally. The option return predictability of CallMoney is stronger when stock price is further from its 52-weeks high, capital gains overhang is lower, and when information uncertainty of the underlying stock is higher. CallMoney also robustly and negatively predicts cross-sectional stock returns.Originality/valueThe gambling measure has the advantages of being economically intuitive, model-free, easy to measure. The measure performs more robustly than existing lottery measures with respect to option and stock return predictability and more reliably captures the overpricing of options and stocks. The work helps understanding the gambling related anomalies in equity option returns and stock returns.

Impact of upward and downward earnings management on stock returns

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Asgar Ali ◽  
Manish Bansal
Keyword(s):  
Earnings Management ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Momentum Effect ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uniform Sample ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Moderating Role

PurposeThe current study aims at examining the impact of upward and downward earnings management on the cross-sections of stock return. The study also examines the moderating role of cross-sectional effects on the association between earnings management and stock returns.Design/methodology/approachThe study employed univariate and bivariate-sorted portfolio-level analysis to investigate the issue. Fama–Macbeth cross-sectional regression is used to analyze the moderating role of different cross-sectional effects. The study used a sample of 3085 Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) listed stocks spanning over 20 years from January 2000 to December 2019.FindingsThe findings suggest that investors have different perceptions toward different forms of earnings management. In other words, results exhibit that investors perceive downward earnings management as an element of risk; hence, they discount the returns at a higher rate. On the contrary, results show that upward earnings management is positively perceived by the investors; hence, they hold the stocks even at a lower rate of return. This relation is found to be consistent even after controlling the impact of marker effect, size effect, value effect and momentum effect.Originality/valueThis study is among pioneering studies that consider the direction of earnings management while examining its impact on the stock return. This study is also among the earlier attempts to examine the moderating role of four different cross-sectional effects by taking a uniform sample of stocks over the same period.

Abusive supervision, public service motivation, and employee deviance

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 214-231 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rick Vogel ◽  
Fabian Homberg ◽  
Alena Gericke
Keyword(s):  
Public Service ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Abusive Supervision ◽  
Public Service Motivation ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
The Public ◽  
Employee Deviance

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine abusive supervision and public service motivation (PSM) as antecedents of deviant workplace behaviours. Design/methodology/approach The study was conducted in a cross-sectional research design with survey data from 150 employees in the public, private, and non-profit sector in Germany and the USA. Findings Abusive supervision is positively associated with employee deviance, whereas PSM is negatively related to deviant behaviours. The employment sector moderates the negative relationship between PSM and employee deviance such that this relationship is stronger in the public and non-profit sector. Research limitations/implications Limitations arise from the convenience sampling approach and the cross-sectional nature of the data set. Practical implications Human resource managers should consider behavioural integrity in the attraction, selection, and training of both supervisors and subordinates. Private organisations can address the needs of strongly public service motivated employees by integrating associated goals and values into organisational missions and policies. Originality/value This is the first study to introduce PSM into research on employee deviance. It shows that a pro-social motivation can drive anti-social behaviours when employees with high levels of PSM are members of profit-seeking organisations.

On the dynamic relationship between gold investor sentiment index and stock market

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 372-392
Author(s):  
Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Realized Volatility ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Industry Level ◽  
Dynamic Relationship

Purpose Considering the unique data of the gold investor sentiment index in Thailand, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the bivariate dynamic relationship between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market return, as well as that between the gold investor sentiment index and stock market volatility, using the panel vector autoregression (PVAR) methodology. The author presents and discusses the findings both for the full sample and at the industry level. The results support prior literature that stocks in different industries do not react similarly to investor sentiment. Design/methodology/approach The PVAR methodology with the GMM estimation is found to be superior to other static panel methodologies due to considering both unobservable time-invariant and time-variant factors, as well as being suitable for relatively short time periods. The panel data approach improves the statistical power of the tests and ensures more reliable results. Findings In general, a negative and unidirectional association from gold investor sentiment to stock returns is observed. However, the gold sentiment-stock realized volatility relationship is negative and bidirectional, and there exists a greater impact of a stock’s realized volatility on gold investor sentiment. Importantly, evidence at the industry level is stronger than that at the aggregate level in both return and volatility cases, confirming the role of gold investor sentiment in the Thai stock market. The capital flow effect and the contagion effect explain the gold sentiment-stock return relationship and the gold sentiment-stock volatility relationship, respectively. Research limitations/implications The gold price sentiment index can be used as a factor for stock return predictability and stock realized volatility predictability in the Thai equity market. Practical implications Practitioners and traders can employ the gold price sentiment index to make a profit in the stock market in Thailand. Originality/value This is the first paper to use panel data to investigate the relationships between the gold investor sentiment and stock returns and between the gold investor sentiment and stocks’ realized volatility, respectively.

Examining the sentiment-return relationship in European real estate stock markets

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 24-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Lang ◽  
Wolfgang Schaefers
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Sensitivity

Purpose – Recent studies in the field of behavioral finance have highlighted the importance of investor sentiment in the return-generating process for general equities. By employing an asset pricing framework, this paper aims to evaluate the performance of European real estate equities, based on their degree of sentiment sensitivity. Design/methodology/approach – Using a pan-European data set, we classify all real estate equities according to their sentiment sensitivity, which is measured relative to the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) of the European Commission. Based on their individual sentiment responsiveness, we form both a high- and low-sensitivity portfolio, whose returns are included in the difference test of the liquidity-augmented asset pricing model. In this context, we analyze the performance of sentiment-sensitive and sentiment-insensitive real estate equities with a risk-adjusted perspective over the period July 1995 to June 2012. Findings – While high-sensitivity real estate equities yield significantly higher raw returns than those with low-sensitivity, we find no evidence of risk-adjusted outperformance. This indicates that allegedly sentiment-driven return behavior is in fact merely compensation for taking higher fundamental risks. In this context, we find that sentiment-sensitive real estate equities are exposed to significantly higher market risks than sentiment-insensitive ones. Based on these findings, we conclude that a sentiment-based investment strategy, consisting of a long-position in the high-sensitivity portfolio and a short-position in the low-sensitivity one, does not generate a risk-adjusted profit. Research limitations/implications – Although this study sheds some light on investor sentiment in European real estate stock markets, further research could usefully concentrate on alternative sentiment proxies. Originality/value – This is the first study to disentangle the relationship between investor sentiment and European real estate stock returns.

The relationship between individual investor sentiment, stock return and volatility

2015 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 504-520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mustafa Sayim ◽  
Hamid Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Individual Investor ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Investor Sentiments ◽  
Market Fundamentals ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of Turkish individual investor sentiment on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and to investigate whether investor sentiment, stock return and volatility in Turkey are related. Design/methodology/approach – This study used the monthly Turkish Consumer Confidence Index, published by the Turkish Statistical Institute, as a proxy for individual investor sentiments. First, Turkish market fundamentals were regressed on investor sentiments in order to capture the effects of macroeconomic risk factors on investor sentiments. Then, it used the impulse response functions (IRFs) generated from the vector autoregression (VAR) model to examine the effect of unanticipated movements in Turkish investor sentiment to both stock returns and volatility of the ISE. Findings – The generalized IRFs from VAR shows that unexpected changes in rational and irrational investor sentiment have a significant positive impact on ISE returns. This suggests that a positive investor sentiment tends to increase ISE returns. The study also documents that unanticipated increase in the rational component of Turkish investor sentiment has a negative significant effect on ISE volatility. This might indicate that investors have optimistic expectations of the economy overall with respect to market fundamentals in Turkey. This optimism can result in creating positive expectations, reducing uncertainty, and reducing the volatility of stock market returns. Research limitations/implications – The study was applied only for the period 2004-2010 on the ISE stock returns and volatility. Practical implications – Regardless, investors should know the impact of irrational investor sentiments while establishing investment strategies. The results of this study may also help policy makers stabilize investor sentiments to reduce stock market volatility and uncertainty. Originality/value – This paper adds to the limited understanding of investor sentiment impact on stock return and volatility in an emerging market context.

Investor sentiment and government policy interventions: evidence from COVID-19 spread

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Garima Goel ◽  
Saumya Ranjan Dash
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Role Of Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Interventions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Moderating Role

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the moderating role of government policy interventions amid the early spread of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) (January–May 2020) on the investor sentiment and stock returns relationship. Design/methodology/approach This paper uses panel data from a sample of 53 countries to examine the impact of investor sentiment, measured by the financial and economic attitudes revealed by the search (FEARS) index (Da et al., 2015) on the stock return. Findings The moderating role of government policy response indices with the FEARS index on the global stock returns is further explored. This paper finds that government policy responses have a moderating role in the sentiment and stock returns relationship. The effect holds true even when countries are split based on five classifications, i.e. cultural distance, health standard, government effectiveness, social well-being and financial development. The results are robust to an alternative measure of pandemic search intensity, quantile regression and two measures of stock market activity, i.e. conditional volatility and exchange traded fund returns. Research limitations/implications The sample period of this study encompasses the early spread phase (January–May 2020) of the novel COVID-19 spread. Originality/value This paper provides some early evidence on whether the government policy interventions are helpful to mitigate the impact of investor sentiment on the stock market. The paper also helps to shed better insights on the role of different country characteristics for the sentiment and stock return relationship.

Investor sentiment and stock return volatility: evidence from the Indian Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sreenu N ◽  
Suresh Naik
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Return ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Return Volatility ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Stock Return Volatility

PurposeIn any stock market, volatility is a significant factor in strengthening their asset pricing. The upsurge in volatility in the stock market can activate and bring changes in the financial risk. According to financial conventional theory, the stakeholders (investors) are selected to be balanced and variations in pertinent risk are also to be anticipated due to the outcome of the drive-in basic factors in Indian stock markets. The hypothesis shows that there are actions in systematic and unsystematic risks that are determined by volatility. It is allied to sentiment-driven in the trader movement.Design/methodology/approachThe paper used the methodology of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-in mean GARCH-M and exponential GARCH-M (E-GARCH-M) methods on the Indian stock market. The data have been covered from 2000 to 2019.FindingsFinally, the study suggests that due to the unfitness of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), the selection has enhanced with sentiment is an important risk factor.Practical implicationsThe investor sentiment and stock return volatility statement are established by using the investor sentiment amalgamated stock market index built.Originality/valueThe outcome of the study shows that there is an important association between stakeholder (investor) sentiment and stock return, in case of volatility behavioural finance can significantly explain the behaviour of stock returns on the Indian Stock Exchange.

scholarly journals An empirical investigation of fraud risk assessment and knowledge requirement on fraud related problem representation in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-97 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwatoyin Muse Johnson Popoola ◽  
Ayoib B Che-Ahmad ◽  
Rose Shamsiah Samsudin
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Related Problem ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Problem Representation ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Public ◽  
Fraud Risk ◽  
Cross Sectional Design ◽  
Relationship Of

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate Task Performance Fraud Risk Assessment (TPFRA) and Knowledge Requirement (KR) of the forensic accountant and auditor on Fraud-Related Problem Representation (FRPR) in the Nigerian public sector. Design/methodology/approach – The study used cross-sectional design and 400 survey questionnaires. The respondents are real professional people (auditors and forensic accountants in the Nigerian public sector) as true representatives to enhance the generalization of the outcomes. A total of 36 indicator items was measured on five-point Likert scale from 1 (strongly disagree) to 5 (strongly agree). Partial Least Square – Structural Equation Modelling 2.0 3M and IBM SPSS Statistics 20.0 were used as the primary statistical analysis tool for the study. Findings – The results of the present study confirm the positive relationship between KR on TPFRA, positive relationship of KR on FRPR and positive relationship of FRPR and TPFRA. Specifically, the results revealed that FRPR positively mediates the relationship between TPFRA and KR (forensic accountant and auditor) in the areas of fraud prevention, detection and response. Research limitations/implications – The first limitation deals with fraud and corrupt practices in a developing country, Nigeria. Examining the mediating influence of FRPR on KR and TPFRA in the public sector could be considered as sensitive and raise the issue of bias. The second limitation is the adoption of cross-sectional design in which data are collected at one point in time. Researchers are encouraged to use a longitudinal design to explore interactions between KR, FRPR and TPFRA. Practical implications – This empirical study has revealed the value of KR (forensic accountant and auditor) as a significant capability requirement in the workplace. In addition, it shows the importance of FRPR as an important mental state in decision-making or judgment and also the significance of FRPR as an important mediating variable on KR and TPFRA. Originality/value – No nation is immune to fraud, and loss due to fraud in the public sector is enormous and costly; the result of this research will improve the KR of auditors and forensic accountants in the areas of fraud detection, prevention and response. It will also contribute to the regulatory, legal and institutional frameworks in accounting and auditing systems in Nigeria and portend an increase in demand for forensic accountants.

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