Chapter 7 Floods, Landslides, and Adapting to Climate Change in Nepal: What Role for Climate Change Models?

2012 ◽  
pp. 119-140 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Sudmeier-Rieux ◽  
Jean-Christophe Gaillard ◽  
Sundar Sharma ◽  
Jérôme Dubois ◽  
Michel Jaboyedoff
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Change Models

scholarly journals CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON MOUNTAIN BIODIVERSITY: A SPECIAL REFERENCE TO GILGIT-BALTISTAN OF PAKISTAN

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 53
Author(s):  
S. Ishaq ◽  
M. Z. Khan ◽  
F. Begum ◽  
K. Hussain ◽  
R. Amir ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Special Reference ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Knowledge Gap ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Government ◽  
Gilgit Baltistan ◽  
The Impact

Climate Change is not a stationary phenomenon; it moves from time to time, it represents a major threat to mountainous biodiversity and to ecosystem integrity. The present study is an attempt to identify the current knowledge gap and the effects of climate change on mountainous biodiversity, a special reference to the Gilgit-Baltistan is briefly reviewed. Measuring the impact of climate change on mountain biodiversity is quite challenging, because climate change interacts with every phenomenon of ecosystem. The scale of this change is so large and very adverse so strongly connected to ecosystem services, and all communities who use natural resources. This study aims to provide the evidences on the basis of previous literature, in particular context to mountain biodiversity of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). Mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan have most fragile ecosystem and are more vulnerable to climate change. These mountains host variety of wild fauna and flora, with many endangered species of the world. There are still many gaps in our knowledge of literature we studied because very little research has been conducted in Gilgit-Baltistan about climate change particular to biodiversity. Recommendations are made for increased research efforts in future this including jointly monitoring programs, climate change models and ecological research. Understanding the impact of climate change particular to biodiversity of GB is very important for sustainable management of these natural resources. The Government organizations, NGOs and the research agencies must fill the knowledge gap, so that it will help them for policy making, which will be based on scientific findings and research based.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate warming on forests in Ontario: Options for adaptation and mitigation

2000 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. S. Papadopol
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Risk Environment ◽  
International Consensus ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Key Words Climate Change

This paper summarizes current knowledge about the optical properties of greenhouse gases and general climate-warming influences. It explains the influence of this new phenomenon on the major ecosystems of the world, and considers the process of deforestation. It then analyzes the warming trends in Ontario based on data from two weather stations with continuous records of more than 120 years, to determine the rate of warming in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Region. The results indicate a temperature increase of about 0.76 °C per century and an 8% increase in annual total precipitation.Current climate change models indicate that for a scenario of 2 × CO2 levels some general, probable prognoses can be made, including a temperature increase of up to 4.5 °C, which might be disastrous for existing forest ecosystems. Specifically, the consequences of climate warming on (a) northward shifts of ecological conditions, (b) forest productivity, and (c) forest physiology and health, are examined. In the context of global warming, the paper then recommends practical management measures necessary to ensure adaptation of existing forest ecosystems to the warming that is already developing. These measures are intended to provide a no-risk environment for existing forests until rotation age. Next, a wide range of mitigative measures is examined with a view to securing the long-term preservation of forest ecosystems to avoid major ecological disruptions and, gradually, to reverse climate warming. Application of these measures requires international consensus, but countries that apply these recommendations first have a chance to profit from them due to the "CO2 fertilization" effect. Key words: climate change, silviculture, forest management

CLIMATE-CHANGE STUDIES IN THE MAYA AREA

2002 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 79-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joel D. Gunn ◽  
Ray T. Matheny ◽  
William J. Folan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Change ◽  
Annual Meeting ◽  
Maya Lowlands ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Modern Times ◽  
The Past ◽  
Cultural Paradigms ◽  
Physical Forces ◽  
Maya Area

The series of papers on climate change published in this issue are the result of the symposium “Environmental Change in Mesoamerica: Physical Forces and Cultural Paradigms in the Preclassic to Postclassic,” held at the 63rd Annual Meeting of the Society for American Archaeology in March 2000 in Philadelphia. The authors bring their expertise in paleoclimatological studies to bear on the Maya Lowlands and Highlands from the beginning of the Holocene to the Postclassic and modern times. The studies reveal that climate has changed during the past 4,000 years to a considerable degree that correlates in a reasonable way with archaeological periodizations. Several climate-change models are presented as an effort to understand better past cultural and natural events.

scholarly journals Climate Change in Queensland's Grazing Lands: Ii. An Assessment of the Impact on Animal Production From Native Pastures.

1998 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 177 ◽  
Author(s):  
WB Hall ◽  
GM Mckeon ◽  
JO Carter ◽  
KA Day ◽  
SM Howden ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carrying Capacity ◽  
Animal Production ◽  
Limiting Factors ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Stock Management ◽  
Grazing Land ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Native Pastures ◽  
The Impact

The 160 million ha of grazing land in Queensland support approximately 10 million beef equivalents (9.8 million cattle and 10.7 million sheep) with treed and cleared native pastures as the major forage source. The complexity of these biophysical systems and their interaction with pasture and stock management, economic and social forces limits our ability to easily calculate the impact of climate change scenarios. We report the application of a systems approach in simulating the flow of plant dry matter and utilisation of forage by animals. Our review of available models highlighted the lack of suitable mechanistic models and the potential role of simple empirical relationships of utilisation and animal production derived from climatic and soil indices. Plausible climate change scenarios were evaluated by using a factorial of rainfall (f 10%) * 3260C temperature increase * doubling CO, in sensitivity studies at property, regional and State scales. Simulation of beef cattle liveweight gain at three locations in the Queensland black speargrass zone showed that a *lo% change in rainfall was magnified to be a f 15% change in animal production (liveweight gain per ha) depending on location, temperature and CO, change. Models of 'safe' carrying capacity were developed from property data and expert opinion. Climate change impacts on 'safe' carrying capacity varied considerably across the State depending on whether moisture, temperature or nutrients were the limiting factors. Without the effect of doubling CO,, warmer temperatures and +lo% changes in rainfall resulted in -35 to +70% changes in 'safe' carrying capacity depending on location. With the effect of doubling CO, included, the changes in 'safe' carrying capacity ranged from -12 to +115% across scenarios and locations. When aggregated to a whole-of-State carrying capacity, the combined effects of warmer temperature, doubling CO, and +lo% changes in rainfall resulted in 'safe' carrying capacity changes of +3 to +45% depending on rainfall scenario and location. A major finding of the sensitivity study was the potential importance of doubling CO, in mitigating or amplifying the effects of warmer temperatures and changes in rainfall. Field studies on the impact of CO, are therefore a high research priority. Keywords: climate change, Queensland, simulation, rangelands, beef production, cattle, carrying capacity, CO,, utilisation

Data fusion analysis applied to different climate change models: An application to the energy consumptions of a building office

2019 ◽  
Vol 196 ◽  
pp. 240-254 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Guarino ◽  
Daniele Croce ◽  
Ilenia Tinnirello ◽  
Maurizio Cellura
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Data Fusion ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Energy Consumptions ◽  
Fusion Analysis

scholarly journals Application of Machine Learning for Predicting Building Energy Use at Different Temporal and Spatial Resolution under Climate Change in USA

Buildings ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (8) ◽  
pp. 139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rezvan Mohammadiziazi ◽  
Melissa M. Bilec
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Machine Learning ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Regression Tree ◽  
Building Energy ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Building Energy Use ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting ◽  
Single Regression

Given the urgency of climate change, development of fast and reliable methods is essential to understand urban building energy use in the sector that accounts for 40% of total energy use in USA. Although machine learning (ML) methods may offer promise and are less difficult to develop, discrepancy in methods, results, and recommendations have emerged that requires attention. Existing research also shows inconsistencies related to integrating climate change models into energy modeling. To address these challenges, four models: random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), single regression tree, and multiple linear regression (MLR), were developed using the Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey dataset to predict energy use intensity (EUI) under projected heating and cooling degree days by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) across the USA during the 21st century. The RF model provided better performance and reduced the mean absolute error by 4%, 11%, and 12% compared to XGBoost, single regression tree, and MLR, respectively. Moreover, using the RF model for climate change analysis showed that office buildings’ EUI will increase between 8.9% to 63.1% compared to 2012 baseline for different geographic regions between 2030 and 2080. One region is projected to experience an EUI reduction of almost 1.5%. Finally, good data enhance the predicting ability of ML therefore, comprehensive regional building datasets are crucial to assess counteraction of building energy use in the face of climate change at finer spatial scale.

Water quality management in the context of future climate and development changes: a South African case study

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 775-787 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. S. Slaughter ◽  
S. K. Mantel ◽  
D. A. Hughes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Water Quality Management ◽  
Nutrient Inputs ◽  
Weap Model ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Water Quality Simulation ◽  
Model Driven ◽  
Quality Decision

Globally, water resources are being over-utilised; a situation exacerbated by degenerating water quality of rivers. To achieve sustainable management of water resources, uncertainty under climate change and development must be considered. A companion study was the first to incorporate uncertainty within water resources development scenario modelling for a catchment in South Africa using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model. That study is extended in the current study by considering water quality in the form of nutrients and salinity. The WEAP model was calibrated against available observed data for the period 1999–2005. Using the calibrated WEAP model, driven by flow predicted using downscaled climate change models and projected future development, water quality was simulated for the years 2046–2065. Future simulations indicated marginally increased dilution capacity as well as increased nutrient inputs. It is evident that WEAP suffers major limitations in its water quality simulation capacity. Adaptive management along with continual monitoring as a strategy to cope with uncertainty associated with climate change and development is recommended. The shortcomings identified within WEAP in the current study were the motivation for the development of a new water quality decision support system specific to the requirements of water management in southern Africa.

scholarly journals Climate change increases the likelihood of catastrophic avian mortality events during extreme heat waves

2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-256 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew E. McKechnie ◽  
Blair O. Wolf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Survival Times ◽  
Water Requirements ◽  
Evaporative Water ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Hot Weather

Severe heat waves have occasionally led to catastrophic avian mortality in hot desert environments. Climate change models predict increases in the intensity, frequency and duration of heat waves. A model of avian evaporative water requirements and survival times during the hottest part of day reveals that the predicted increases in maximum air temperatures will result in large fractional increases in water requirements (in small birds, equivalent to 150–200 % of current values), which will severely reduce survival times during extremely hot weather. By the 2080s, desert birds will experience reduced survival times much more frequently during mid-summer, increasing the frequency of catastrophic mortality events.

scholarly journals Ensembles of climate change models for risk assessment of nuclear power plants

2017 ◽  
Vol 232 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-200
Author(s):  
Matteo Vagnoli ◽  
Francesco Di Maio ◽  
Enrico Zio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Power Plants ◽  
Nuclear Power Plants ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Cooling System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Temperature And Pressure

Climate change affects technical systems, structures and infrastructures, changing the environmental context for which systems, structures and infrastructure were originally designed. In order to prevent any risk growth beyond acceptable levels, the climate change effects must be accounted for into risk assessment models. Climate models can provide future climate data, such as air temperature and pressure. However, the reliability of climate models is a major concern due to the uncertainty in the temperature and pressure future projections. In this work, we consider five climate change models (individually unable to accurately provide historical recorded temperatures and, thus, also future projections) and ensemble their projections for integration in a probabilistic safety assessment, conditional on climate projections. As case study, we consider the passive containment cooling system of two AP1000 nuclear power plants. Results provided by the different ensembles are compared. Finally, a risk-based classification approach is performed to identify critical future temperatures, which may lead to passive containment cooling system risks beyond acceptable levels.

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