scholarly journals Managing uncertainty: harnessing the power of scenario planning

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
John J. Oliver ◽  
Emma Parrett

Purpose This paper aims to provide an overview of the role that scenario planning can play in managing the uncertainty caused by changing and unpredictable competitive dynamics. Design/methodology/approach This viewpoint reflects both the practical experience of strategic planners, combined with an academic insight into the advantages of using scenario planning as a management tool. Findings Firms can develop corporate level strategy and gain long-term certainty in their strategic approach by using scenario planning to strategize in a way that allows them to prepare for multiple futures, with multiple strategies. Practical implications Firms can manage environmental uncertainty and turbulence by being “mentally prepared” to address the future by evaluating the critical uncertainties driving turbulence and the strategic options relevant to a number of possible future outcomes. Originality/value A unique combination of practical experience fused with academic knowledge on harnessing the power of scenario planning to manage uncertainty and develop organizational strategy.

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 335-354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Manuel Ramón Tejeiro Koller ◽  
Patricio Morcillo Ortega ◽  
José Miguel Rodríguez Antón ◽  
Luís Rubio Andrada

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze how firms can enhance their innovative capabilities and become more resilient. The current business environment requires a specific type of management for companies to remain competitive and innovation plays a key role in this respect. However, this means that a particular kind of corporate culture must promote innovation in the firm. This innovation culture is likely to be present in innovative companies that have survived in the long term (at least 50 years) and be the source of an adaptive advantage. Design/methodology/approach Using innovative Spanish firms, which were established at least 50 years ago, an exploratory factorial analysis was conducted to verify the existence of an innovation culture. Thereafter, a cluster analysis was undertaken to study differences in performance to be able to detect and identify their adaptive advantage. Findings The findings offer a detailed profile of old and innovative firms created in Spain. Results show that most of the studied firms (88 per cent) have an innovation culture. Furthermore, two separate groups were identified, in which one showed higher profitability and a lower adjustment to an innovation culture, while the other showed the reverse results. This suggests that innovation culture helps companies be more resilient but does not necessarily lead to higher returns. Practical implications Corporate culture is identified as a useful management tool in the search for more resilient enterprises. Specific cultural traits are recommended and a benchmarking tool is applied and made available upon request. Originality/value Although there are a number of studies which consider the concept of adaptive advantage and resilience on the one side, and on corporate innovation culture on the other, this paper seems to be the first to empirically explore the relationship of both these concepts.


2014 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 1-3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steve North ◽  
John Jason Oliver

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the key strategic questions that need to be considered when evaluating whether or not to extend a company’s reach across multiple digital platforms. Design/methodology/approach – The viewpoint presented in this paper reflects both the practical experience of conceiving, launching and implementing a multi-platform digital strategy, combined with an academic insight into branding and strategic resource allocation and management. Findings – Before extending the digital footprint, executives need to consider several key questions that will impact on the relative success of their digital strategy. Practical implications – A digital strategy that extends a company’s reach across multiple platforms needs to be considered in terms of delivering against corporate- and business-level strategy to be effective. Originality/value – This paper presents a unique combination of practical experience fused with academic knowledge on the key questions that should be considered to successfully design and implement a multi-platform digital strategy.


foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Mehdi Zahraei ◽  
Jude Herijadi Kurniawan ◽  
Lynette Cheah

Purpose The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.


2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benedetto Manganelli ◽  
Francesco Tajani

Purpose – This paper aims to propose a management model of public assets within public-private partnerships which can be applied to properties subject to a possible requalification through the redevelopment and/or modification of the intended use. Design/methodology/approach – The logic developed is described by an algorithm which borrows the mathematical tools of Operations Research to identify the solution that maximises the utility functions of the parties related to the requalification and management of a public property. The unknowns of the model are the price and concession period, while the constraints reflect the specific and reciprocal conveniences of the actors involved. Findings – The benefits for the private investor are a reduction of the business risk, related to the lower financial outlay required by the investment, and therefore easier access to credit from banks. For the public administration, an increase in the demand of the property offered, savings in the property management costs, along with the preservation of public property. This aspect of no small importance where there is the fear of breaking up public property which local communities attach a high cultural and historic value. Practical implications – This leads to a logical support to public administrations involved in the requalification of property assets. Originality/value – This paper presents a strategic approach with long-term prospects, which interprets in a different way a pure concession model, which has a greater flexibility and articulation and also enriches the framework of the projects (public-private) considered necessary for the requalification of public property as well as possible urban transformation projects.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Timothée Brochier ◽  
Patrice Brehmer ◽  
Adama Mbaye ◽  
Mamadou Diop ◽  
Naohiko Watanuki ◽  
...  

Abstract Artificial reefs (ARs) are one of the most popular means of supporting marine ecosystem conservation and coastal fisheries, particularly in developing countries. However, ARs generate complex socio-bio-economic interactions that require careful evaluation. This is particularly the case for ARs outside no-take zones, where fish might be subject to enhanced exploitation due to easier catchability Here, we conducted an interdisciplinary study on how ARs impact fish and fishing yields, combining mathematical and sociological approaches. Both approaches confirmed that fishery yields declined when ARs were exploited as if they were open access areas. This situation typically occurs in areas with weak governance, which is common in developing countries. To avoid these adverse effects we recommend to prioritize the onset of a long-term surveillance system against illegal fishing activities, and to adapt design and location of the ARs based on both and local and academic knowledge, before the deployment of ARs.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephen Burke

Purpose This paper aims to highlight lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic for planning for the future of our ageing society. It looks at trends, changes in our society and implications for people of all ages. It focusses on the importance of planning and whether COVID-19 will lead to long-term changes. Design/methodology/approach This paper draws on the author’s experiences running an intergenerational organisation during the pandemic and other work associated with ageing well. Findings This paper highlights some of the risks and unknowns we face going forwards and points to lessons and opportunities for “building back better”. Research limitations/implications This paper is based on a review of published articles and viewpoints. Practical implications The COVID-19 pandemic has challenged people of all ages in different ways, some of which have tested intergenerational solidarity. At the same time, the pandemic has raised issues which we must all address going forward: planning for future pandemics, planning for an ageing society and ensuring that future planning works for all generations. This paper explores all these themes in the light of lessons from COVID-19. Firstly, despite much risk assessment and scenario planning, we were not well placed in the UK or across the world to respond to the multiple challenges of COVID-19. Have we learned the lessons to be able to deal better with the inevitable pandemics that will follow in the future? It is also well documented that the pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities in our society. What will the long-term impact be for longevity and will less healthy lives reverse the trend of increasing life expectancy? Secondly, what are the lessons for our ageing society? As life expectancy rises, what will the quality of life be like in those added years? Many of today’s babies can expect to have a 100-year life. What does that mean for the way we lead our lives and can we ensure that everyone can age well? Third, these are not just issues for older people, but for people of all ages and generations. The Covid-19 experience has been different for younger and older people – whether it has been health or job security, income, taxation or housing. Questions of intergenerational fairness have again raised their heads, alongside the longer term impact for future generations. Social implications Firstly, despite much risk assessment and scenario planning, we were not well placed in the UK or across the world to respond to the multiple challenges of COVID-19. Have we learned the lessons to be able to deal better with the inevitable pandemics that will follow in the future? It is also well documented that the pandemic has exacerbated existing inequalities in our society. What will the long-term impact be for longevity and will less healthy lives reverse the trend of increasing life expectancy? Secondly, what are the lessons for our ageing society? As life expectancy rises, what will the quality of life be like in those added years? Many of today’s babies can expect to have a 100-year life. What does that mean for the way we lead our lives and can we ensure that everyone can age well? Thirdly, these are not just issues for older people, but for people of all ages and generations. Measures that bring older and younger people together and encourage meaningful mixing will help increase understanding and awareness between generations. This has huge implications for our society and communities. Originality/value This paper reaches two main conclusions. Firstly, the well-known saying: “failing to plan is planning to fail”. This applies to all the issues discussed in this paper re future pandemics, our ageing society and future generations. Secondly, the experience of the COVID-19 pandemic should be the catalyst for changing the way we live and lead to new beginnings. We cannot just carry on as before.


2014 ◽  
Vol 25 (6) ◽  
pp. 812-826 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andre Ferrarese ◽  
Marly Monteiro de Carvalho

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a management tool to maximise the effective time-to-market of a portfolio given the competitive monitoring activities. Design/methodology/approach – From the constant monitoring of competition and market needs, it is proposed to define a time-to-need, time when the market may consume the product under development and competitor will not provide a solution before. This time-to-need is proposed to be defined by an expert committee in a periodical meeting of the portfolio. Once it is identified the time-to-need and the time-to-market (project management), it is possible to manage resources in order to maximise the portfolio outputs. Findings – The application of the mentioned approach in an automotive industry showed improvements on number of launched new products per year (double) and on number of patented product launched (four times more). Research limitations/implications – This approach applies on projects of medium to long term (more than two years) because the resource management can consume set up time. The presented results in this work were based in a single case, which can limit the expected results of the application of this methodology. Practical implications – This approach enables a constant alignment among experts and a better deployment of resources. Originality/value – This work provides a practical tool to promote better resource allocation in a portfolio. It can also be an enabler of innovation projects once it finds resources potential to fund the more front end work.


2017 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 19-22
Author(s):  
Narendra Singh Chaudhary ◽  
Bharat Bhushan

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to highlight the significance of the voluntary retirement scheme (VRS) as a management tool for organisational restructuring. Design/methodology/approach The paper presents the personal view of the author, based on research findings and practical experience. Findings The paper advances the viewpoint that to attain the competitive edge and to survive in the current turbulent times, it is essential for the management to right size their organisations. It is imperative for them to look for the right kind of strategies to overcome the redundancy. They have to choose the most viable options considering its financial and legal implications. This would not only help management in maintaining the healthy industrial relations but also enhance the overall organisational profitability and well-being. Practical implications The paper highlights the pros and cons of the VRS. It reflects the financial and legal implications of the same on the employer and employees in the organisations. Originality/value This paper depicts how VRS (acts as a management tool and helps in improving organisational efficiency. It basically talks about exercising the VRS and its related legislation in an Indian context.


2010 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-39
Author(s):  
Shwetasaibal Samanta Sahoo ◽  
Sarat Kumar Lenka

Film tourism is a growing phenomenon worldwide, fueled by both the growth of the entertainment industry and the increase in international travel model for exploiting film tourism marketing opportunities. Tourism destination marketing is now widely recognized as an essential component in the management of destinations. In harmony with the general marketing literature, which understands marketing as a management tool, some researchers understand destination marketing as a form of 'market-oriented strategic planning' and hence as a strategic approach to place development rather than a promotional tool.Tourists today are more experienced and looking for new destinations and new experience. In the tourism industry, there has been a growing phenomenon that tourists visit destinations featured through films which are not directly related to DMOs' tourism promotion. This is a new form of cultural tourism called film-induced tourism which still receives little attention from both academic and practitioners due to the lack ofknowledge and understanding on the benefits of film on tourism. Recent research suggests that films can have strong influence on tourist decision-making and films do not only provide short-term tourism revenue but long-term prosperify to the destination. The primary focus of this article is to provide a theoretical insight into the relationship between films induced tourism and destination imagery, which in turn can be used to market Western Orissa.


mSystems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi Chen ◽  
Xiaojian Cao ◽  
Yingying Lei ◽  
Aikebaier Reheman ◽  
Wei Zhou ◽  
...  

As an intracellular pathogen, Mycobacterium tuberculosis could avoid host cell immune clearance using multiple strategies for its long-term survival. Understanding these processes could facilitate the development of new approaches to restrict intracellular M. tuberculosis survival.


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