Optimal Strategy of Reserve Allocation Based on the Cost of Expected Frequency

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liu Tingting ◽  
Yang Yaxiong ◽  
Gong Shuneng ◽  
Yao Wei
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Expected Frequency ◽  
The Cost

scholarly journals Risk Response Selection in Construction Projects

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (12) ◽  
pp. 1208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hafeth I. Naji ◽  
Rouwaida Hussein Ali
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Response Selection ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Gravitational Search Algorithm ◽  
Response Strategy ◽  
Risk Response ◽  
Gravitational Search ◽  
The Cost

Risk and its management  is  important  for the success of the project, the  risk management, which encompassed of planning, identification, analysis, and response has an important phase, which is risk response  and it should not be undermined, as its  success going to  the projects  the capability  to overcome the  uncertainty and  thus an effective  tool in project risk management, risk response used the collective information in the analysis stage and in order  to take decision how to improve the possibility to complete the project within time, cost and performance. This stage work on preparing the response to the main risks and appoint the people who are responsible for each response.  When it's needed risk response may be started in quantitative analysis stage and the repetition may be possible between the analysis and risk response stage. The aim of this research is to provide a methodology to make the plane for unexpected events and control uncertain situations and identify the reason for risk response failure and to respond to risk successfully by using the optimization method to select the best strategy. The methodology of this research divided into four parts, the first part main object is to find the projects whose risk response is failed, the second part includes the reasons for risk response Failure, the third part includes   finding   the most important risks generated from risk response that leads to increasing the cost of construction projects, the fourth part of the management system is selecting the optimal risk response strategy. An optimization model was used to select the optimal strategy to treat the risk by using Serval constraints such as the cost of the project, time of the project, Gravitational Search Algorithm and particle swarm used. The result of the risk response selection shows that The investment (contractor, bank) strategy shows a very good strategy as it saves the cost about 30%, while the Mitigate (pay for advances with interest 0. 1) Strategy show saving the cost 40%   and giving land to contractors show saving the cost 40% finally the BIM strategy show saving the cost 25%. The risk response is an important part and should give a great attention and it must be used sophisticated method to select the optimal strategy, the two techniques both show high efficiency in selecting the strategy but Gravitational Search Algorithm show better performance.

scholarly journals Same-sex sexual behavior and selection for indiscriminate mating

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian A Lerch ◽  
Maria R Servedio
Keyword(s):  
Sexual Behavior ◽  
Sexual Reproduction ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Same Sex ◽  
Evolutionary Origins ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Selection For ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Time And Energy

The widespread presence of same-sex sexual behavior (SSB) has long been thought to pose an evolutionary conundrum1-3, as participants in SSB suffer the cost of failing to reproduce after expending the time and energy to find a mate. The potential for SSB to occur as part of an optimal strategy has received almost no attention, although indiscriminate sexual behavior may be the ancestral mode of sexual reproduction4. Here, we build a simple model of sexual reproduction and create a theoretical framework for the evolution of indiscriminate sexual behavior. We provide strong support for the hypothesis that SSB is likely maintained by selection for indiscriminate sexual behavior, by showing that indiscriminate mating is the optimal strategy under a wide range of conditions. Further, our model suggests that the conditions that most strongly favor indiscriminate mating were likely present at the origin of sexual behavior. These findings have implications not only for the evolutionary origins of SSB, but also for the evolution of discriminate sexual behavior across the animal kingdom.

On the MTO production operations inspired by the pursuit-evasion game

2020 ◽  
pp. 2150085
Author(s):  
Fan Wang ◽  
Jia-Jun Li ◽  
Peng-Ju He ◽  
Ying Xue
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Energy Cost ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Theoretical Work ◽  
Natural Behavior ◽  
Pursuit Evasion ◽  
Make To Order ◽  
Evasion Game ◽  
Rush Order ◽  
The Cost

In the present work, we performed a theoretical work to investigate how a make-to-order (MTO) company operates its producing plan for dealing with a rush-order-inserting problem. Firstly, we constructed two models, the time-minimized and cost-minimized model, to investigate the energy-cost generated by the prey during experiencing the pursuit-evasion game. Inspired by the natural pursuit-evasion game, two models have been extended and re-constructed to understand the cost of MTO company induced by the rush-order-inserting problem. In particular, the present results revealed that the optimal strategy adopted by the prey and the MTO manager are significantly coincident. This work provides helpful findings for operating the rush-order-inserting problem and indicates the natural behavior can be appropriately adopted to guide the manager’s decision making.

The Determination of Sequential Strategies of Diagnostic Tests: Comparison of Different Methods by Simulation

1979 ◽  
Vol 18 (02) ◽  
pp. 75-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Alpérovitch ◽  
M. Le Minor ◽  
J. Lellouch
Keyword(s):  
Decision Tree ◽  
Diagnostic Test ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Diagnostic Tests ◽  
Computer Time ◽  
Simulated Patients ◽  
Test Strategies ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Sequential Strategy

Various heuristic processes for determining diagnostic test strategies were compared with the optimal sequential strategy on simulated patients. These heuristics consisted in limiting the depth and breadth of the search in the decision tree with regard to medically reasonable constraints. It appeared that some of these heuristics required a very small amount of computer time and provided solutions, the costs of which were very close to the cost of the optimal strategy.General conclusions were drawn from an analysis of the performance of these various heuristics for varying cost functions.

scholarly journals Research on the Evolution of Collusion between Government and Civil Construction Enterprises in Environmental Regulation

2021 ◽  
Vol 248 ◽  
pp. 02053
Author(s):  
Cao Yingying
Keyword(s):  
Local Government ◽  
Environmental Regulation ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Evolutionary Game ◽  
Regional Migration ◽  
Construction Enterprises ◽  
Emission Behavior ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Way

Polluting civil construction enterprises usually use the way of "voting with their feet" to exert influence on the efforts of local government's environmental regulation, promote the formation of collusion between government and enterprises, and make the local government relax the supervision on the emission behavior of civil construction enterprises. Based on the Tibert model, this paper uses the evolutionary game method to study the collusion between government and enterprises in the cross regional migration of civil construction enterprises and its prevention. The results show that: when the civil construction enterprises comply with the production, the local government's optimal strategy is non collusion strategy; similarly, when the local government is not willing to collude, the non-collusion choice of civil construction enterprises will get higher benefits than collusion. In addition, the cost of civil construction enterprises transferring between different regions, the loss caused by the collusion between civil construction enterprises and local governments, and the probability of local government violations being found can effectively prevent the collusion between local governments and civil construction enterprises.

scholarly journals Tidal drift removes the need for area-restricted search in foraging Atlantic puffins

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 20190208 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley Bennison ◽  
John L. Quinn ◽  
Alison Debney ◽  
Mark Jessopp
Keyword(s):  
Trophic Level ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Encounter Rate ◽  
Brownian Movement ◽  
Marine Predators ◽  
Fratercula Arctica ◽  
Movement Strategies ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Atlantic Puffin ◽  
Feeding Grounds

Understanding how animals forage is a central objective in ecology. Theory suggests that where food is uniformly distributed, Brownian movement ensures the maximum prey encounter rate, but when prey is patchy, the optimal strategy resembles a Lévy walk where area-restricted search (ARS) is interspersed with commuting between prey patches. Such movement appears ubiquitous in high trophic-level marine predators. Here, we report foraging and diving behaviour in a seabird with a high cost of flight, the Atlantic puffin ( Fratercula arctica ), and report a clear lack of Brownian or Levy flight and associated ARS. Instead, puffins foraged using tides to transport them through their feeding grounds. Energetic models suggest the cost of foraging trips using the drift strategy is 28–46% less than flying between patches. We suggest such alternative movement strategies are habitat-specific, but likely to be far more widespread than currently thought.

Is Verifying Frequently an Optimal Strategy? A Belief-Based Model of Verification

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aditya U. Kulkarni ◽  
Alejandro Salado ◽  
Christian Wernz ◽  
Peng Xu
Keyword(s):  
System Design ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Theoretical Foundation ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Single System ◽  
System Requirement ◽  
System Requirements ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Verification Strategy ◽  
Stakeholder Needs

Abstract Verification activities increase an engineering team’s confidence in its system design meeting system requirements, which in turn are derived from stakeholder needs. Conventional wisdom suggests that the system design should be verified frequently to minimize the cost of rework as the system design matures. However, this strategy is based more on experience of engineers than on a theoretical foundation. In this paper, we develop a belief-based model of verification of system design, using a single system requirement as an abstraction, to determine the conditions under which it is cost effective for an organization to verify frequently. We study the model for a broad set of growth rates in verification setup and rework costs. Our results show that verifying a system design frequently is not always an optimal verification strategy. Instead, it is only an optimal strategy when the costs of reworking a faulty design increase at a certain rate as the design matures.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness analysis on measles transmission with vaccination and treatment intervention

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (11) ◽  
pp. 12491-12527
Author(s):  
Shinta A. Rahmayani ◽  
◽  
Dipo Aldila ◽  
Bevina D. Handari
Keyword(s):  
Medical Treatment ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Deterministic Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Qualitative Behaviour ◽  
Effectiveness Analysis ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Effective Analysis

<abstract><p>A deterministic model which describes measles' dynamic using newborns and adults first and second dose of vaccination and medical treatment is constructed in this paper. Mathematical analysis about existence of equilibrium points, basic reproduction number, and bifurcation analysis conducted to understand qualitative behaviour of the model. For numerical purposes, we estimated the parameters' values of the model using monthly measles data from Jakarta, Indonesia. Optimal control theory was applied to investigate the optimal strategy in handling measles spread. The results show that all controls succeeded in reducing the number of infected individuals. The cost-effective analysis was conducted to determine the best strategy to reduce number of infected individuals with the lowest cost of intervention. Our result indicates that the use of the first dose measles vaccine with medical treatment is the most optimal strategy to control measles transmission.</p></abstract>

scholarly journals Searching for the most cost-effective strategy for controlling epidemics spreading on regular and small-world networks

2011 ◽  
Vol 9 (66) ◽  
pp. 158-169 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam Kleczkowski ◽  
Katarzyna Oleś ◽  
Ewa Gudowska-Nowak ◽  
Christopher A. Gilligan
Keyword(s):  
Long Range ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Small World ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Optimal Size ◽  
Small World Networks ◽  
Reproduction Ratio ◽  
Local Strategy ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Number Of Individuals

We present a combined epidemiological and economic model for control of diseases spreading on local and small-world networks. The disease is characterized by a pre-symptomatic infectious stage that makes detection and control of cases more difficult. The effectiveness of local (ring-vaccination or culling) and global control strategies is analysed by comparing the net present values of the combined cost of preventive treatment and illness. The optimal strategy is then selected by minimizing the total cost of the epidemic. We show that three main strategies emerge, with treating a large number of individuals (global strategy, GS), treating a small number of individuals in a well-defined neighbourhood of a detected case (local strategy) and allowing the disease to spread unchecked (null strategy, NS). The choice of the optimal strategy is governed mainly by a relative cost of palliative and preventive treatments. If the disease spreads within the well-defined neighbourhood, the local strategy is optimal unless the cost of a single vaccine is much higher than the cost associated with hospitalization. In the latter case, it is most cost-effective to refrain from prevention. Destruction of local correlations, either by long-range (small-world) links or by inclusion of many initial foci, expands the range of costs for which the NS is most cost-effective. The GS emerges for the case when the cost of prevention is much lower than the cost of treatment and there is a substantial non-local component in the disease spread. We also show that local treatment is only desirable if the disease spreads on a small-world network with sufficiently few long-range links; otherwise it is optimal to treat globally. In the mean-field case, there are only two optimal solutions, to treat all if the cost of the vaccine is low and to treat nobody if it is high. The basic reproduction ratio, R 0 , does not depend on the rate of responsive treatment in this case and the disease always invades (but might be stopped afterwards). The details of the local control strategy, and in particular the optimal size of the control neighbourhood, are determined by the epidemiology of the disease. The properties of the pathogen might not be known in advance for emerging diseases, but the broad choice of the strategy can be made based on economic analysis only.

An Efficient Conflict–Resolution Approach to Support Read/Write Operations in a Video Server

1997 ◽  
Vol 07 (03) ◽  
pp. 321-349 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chien-I Lee ◽  
Ye-In Chang ◽  
Wei-Pang Yang
Keyword(s):  
Conflict Resolution ◽  
Performance Analysis ◽  
Optimal Strategy ◽  
Insertion Sequence ◽  
Continuous Media ◽  
Video Server ◽  
Identification Number ◽  
The Cost

In this paper, we propose an efficient conflict-resolution approach based on the multi-disk architecture for the insertion/deletion operations on continuous media that are split up into blocks and placed in various locations on the disk, without reorganizing the whole data. When a new subobject is inserted after subobject i, it will be assigned with an identification number (i + 1) and be inserted into a disk in which the retrieval of the new subobject does not conflict with the retrieval of any other subobject, where a conflict means a pair of two consecutive subobjects that are stored in the same disk have to be retrieved simultaneously. However, a new conflict on the same disk may occur since all the identification numbers of subobjects after subobject i are increased by one. Only when such a new conflict occurs, one movement operation is required, so does the case of a deletion operation. Moreover, to reduce those additional movement cost, a deferring approach is proposed at the cost of an additional buffer. In this approach, n data insertions are deferred and stored in a buffer. Then, the system starts to insert those data after an optimal insertion sequence is determined. Based on this approach, two strategies are proposed: the conflict-resolved-first-deferring strategy (the CRFD strategy) and the conflict-resolved-last-deferring strategy (the CRLD strategy). From our performance analysis, we will prove that the CRLD strategy with an insertion sequence according to the ascending order of identification numbers is an optimal strategy based on the proposed deferring approach.

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