Geographic distribution of plant pathogens in response to climate change

Walker’s Manihot, Manihot walkerae, is an endangered plant that is endemic to the Tamaulipan thornscrub ecoregion of extreme southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. M. walkerae populations are highly fragmented and are found on both protected public lands and private property. Habitat loss and competition by invasive species are the most detrimental threats for M. walkerae; however, the effect of climate change on M. walkerae’s geographic distribution remains unexplored and could result in further range restrictions. Our objectives are to evaluate the potential effects of climate change on the distribution of M. walkerae and assess the usefulness of natural protected areas in future conservation. We predict current and future geographic distribution for M. walkerae (years 2050 and 2070) using three different general circulation models (CM3, CMIP5, and HADGEM) and two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). A total of nineteen spatially rarefied occurrences for M. walkerae and ten non-highly correlated bioclimatic variables were inputted to the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) to produce twenty replicates per scenario. The area under the curve (AUC) value for the consensus model was higher than 0.90 and the partial ROC value was higher than 1.80, indicating a high predictive ability. The potential reduction in geographic distribution for M. walkerae by the effect of climate change was variable throughout the models, but collectively they predict a restriction in distribution. The most severe reductions were 9% for the year 2050 with the CM3 model at an 8.5 RCP, and 14% for the year 2070 with the CMIP5 model at the 4.5 RCP. The future geographic distribution of M. walkerae was overlapped with protected lands in the U.S. and Mexico in order to identify areas that could be suitable for future conservation efforts. In the U.S. there are several protected areas that are potentially suitable for M. walkerae, whereas in Mexico no protected areas exist within M. walkerae suitable habitat.

Download Full-text

Geographic distribution and impacts of climate change on the suitable habitats of Zingiber species in China

Industrial Crops and Products ◽

10.1016/j.indcrop.2019.05.078 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 138 ◽

pp. 111429 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

Zebin Huang ◽

Lingna Xie ◽

Huawei Wang ◽

Jiaben Zhong ◽

Yanchen Li ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Suitable Habitats ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Download Full-text

A study of the impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution of Pinus koraiensis in China

Environment International ◽

10.1016/s0160-4120(01)00083-6 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 27 (2-3) ◽

pp. 201-205 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Deying Xu ◽

Hong Yan

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Pinus Koraiensis ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Download Full-text

Effects of climate change on the geographic distribution of Quercus acuta Thunb.

Journal of Agriculture & Life Science ◽

10.14397/jals.2015.49.6.47 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 49 (6) ◽

pp. 47-57

Author(s):

Jung Hwa Chun ◽

◽

Chang Bae Lee ◽

Soon Jin Yun

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Quercus Acuta

Download Full-text

Climate Change, Carbon Dioxide, and Pest Biology, Managing the Future: Coffee as a Case Study

Agronomy ◽

10.3390/agronomy8080152 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 8 (8) ◽

pp. 152 ◽

Cited By ~ 11

Author(s):

Lewis Ziska ◽

Bethany Bradley ◽

Rebekah Wallace ◽

Charles Bargeron ◽

Joseph LaForest ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Early Detection ◽

Pest Management ◽

Plant Pathogens ◽

Management Practices ◽

Insect Pests ◽

Geographic Ranges ◽

Distribution Mapping ◽

Projected Changes

The challenge of maintaining sufficient food, feed, fiber, and forests, for a projected end of century population of between 9–10 billion in the context of a climate averaging 2–4 °C warmer, is a global imperative. However, climate change is likely to alter the geographic ranges and impacts for a variety of insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds, and the consequences for managed systems, particularly agriculture, remain uncertain. That uncertainty is related, in part, to whether pest management practices (e.g., biological, chemical, cultural, etc.) can adapt to climate/CO2 induced changes in pest biology to minimize potential loss. The ongoing and projected changes in CO2, environment, managed plant systems, and pest interactions, necessitates an assessment of current management practices and, if warranted, development of viable alternative strategies to counter damage from invasive alien species and evolving native pest populations. We provide an overview of the interactions regarding pest biology and climate/CO2; assess these interactions currently using coffee as a case study; identify the potential vulnerabilities regarding future pest impacts; and discuss possible adaptive strategies, including early detection and rapid response via EDDMapS (Early Detection & Distribution Mapping System), and integrated pest management (IPM), as adaptive means to improve monitoring pest movements and minimizing biotic losses while improving the efficacy of pest control.

Download Full-text

Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genusTityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina

10.7287/peerj.preprints.2829 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Pablo Martinez ◽

Mayane A Andrade ◽

Claudio Juan Bidau

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Temporal Pattern ◽

Distribution Area ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Buenos Aires Province ◽

Accident Risk ◽

Human Beings ◽

Risk Maps ◽

The Impact

BACKGROUND: The knowledge of the factors that affect the geographic distribution of species permits us to infer where they can be found. Human beings, through the expansion of their own distribution area and their contribution to climate alteration have modified the geographic distribution of other biological species. As a consequence, the temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is being modified. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic along time. The aim of this work was to analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution constructing risk maps. METHODS: Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we constructed risk maps for the analyzed species. RESULTS: Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina, showed significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated federal district in Argentina thus liable to become the one most affected by T. trivittatus. DISCUSSION: Then, these alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies.

Download Full-text

Changes in the Geographic Distribution of the Diana Fritillary (Speyeria diana: Nymphalidae) Under Forecasted Predictions of Climate Change

10.20944/preprints201807.0058.v1 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Carrie Wells ◽

David Tonkyn

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

North America ◽

Geographic Distribution ◽

Ecological Niche ◽

Ecological Niche Modeling ◽

Suitable Habitat ◽

Butterfly Species ◽

Operating Characteristics ◽

Southeastern Us ◽

The Future

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern US. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two, phylogenetically disjunct mountainous regions. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, CCSM and MIROC, under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics Area Under Curve test and the True Skill Statistics (mean AUC = 0.91± 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 4.5, and mean AUC = 0.87± 0.0031SE, TSS = 0.84 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the Southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.

Download Full-text