TREND ANALYSIS FOR DROUGHT EVENT IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
FADHILAH YUSOF ◽  
FOO HUI–MEAN ◽  
SHARIFFAH SUHAILA ◽  
KONG CHING–YEE
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Trend Identification ◽  
Drought Occurrence

In this paper, the geostatistics application is employed for analysis of drought events in verifying the upward or increasing and downward or decreasing trend during the drought occurrence. About 33 years of daily precipitation data obtained from 69 stations during the period of November, 1975 to October, 2008 in Peninsular Malaysia are analyzed to characterize the trend of dry events. The amount of precipitation is classified based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to determine the drought periods and proceed with the Mann–Kendall test for trend identification. These results are further verified by applying the kriging method. The kriging results describe that the trend values for drought events in Peninsular Malaysia interprets an upward trend especially in eastern and western parts.

scholarly journals Drought and climate change assessment using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for Sarawak River Basin

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 956-965 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. H. J. Bong ◽  
J. Richard
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Recent Decade ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Monthly Precipitation

Abstract Severe droughts in the year 1998 and 2014 in Sarawak due to the strong El Niño has impacted the water supply and irrigated agriculture. In this study, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used for drought identification and monitoring in Sarawak River Basin. Using monthly precipitation data between the year 1975 and 2016 for 15 rainfall stations in the basin, the drought index values were obtained for the time scale of three, six and nine months. Rainfall trend for the years in study was also assessed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator and compared with the drought index. Findings showed that generally there was a decreasing trend for the SPI values for the three time scales, indicating a higher tendency of increased drought event throughout the basin. Furthermore, it was observed that there was an increase in the numbers of dry months in the recent decade for most of the rainfall stations as compared to the previous 30 to 40 years, which could be due to climate change. Findings from this study are valuable for the planning and formulating of drought strategies to reduce and mitigate the adverse effects of drought.

Building Drought Index Based on AMSR-E Data - A Case Study in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan Basin

2013 ◽  
Vol 781-784 ◽  
pp. 2292-2295
Author(s):  
Qiong Lian Chen ◽  
Jing Wen Xu ◽  
Shao Wei Shi ◽  
Xin Li ◽  
Peng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Sichuan Basin ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Ratio Method ◽  
Hilly Area ◽  
Central Sichuan Basin ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Sichuan Hilly Area is selected as the study area. This paper uses ten brightness temperature AMSR-E data during 2006-2010. It constructs 8 preferred drought index by using the polarization ratio method (Polarization Rations, PR). This paper makes Pearson correlation analysis by using the 8 preferred drought index and the soil moisture of study area. Meanwhile, Linear regression and correlation analysis with the Daily precipitation and the standardized precipitation index SPI are also made. The results show: for example, in December 2009, drought index DI74, DI92, DI96 were basically consistent with the spatial distribution. Drought degree has an increasing trend from southeast to northwest regional gradually. And with the drought conditions in hilly area of actual and daily precipitation, SPI correlation between interannual and Sichuan are proper. So the drought index is more suitable for drought study in hilly area of central Sichuan Basin.

scholarly journals Trends in daily precipitation in highlands region of Santa Catarina, southern Brazil

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Eder Alexandre Schatz Sá ◽  
Carolina Natel de Moura ◽  
Victor Luís Padilha ◽  
Claudia Guimarães Camargo Campos
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Rainfall Anomaly ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Southern Brazil ◽  
Santa Catarina ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Precipitation Anomalies ◽  
Weather Stations

This study evaluates the occurrence of trends in time series of precipitation in the highlands region of Santa Catarina, Southern Brazil. Daily precipitation data of three weather stations at Lages, São Joaquim and Campos Novos were used to evaluate rainfall trends. The trends were analyzed through the Seasonal Mann Kendall test, to include occurrence of maximum annual 1-day precipitation (RX1), maximum annual consecutive 2-day precipitation (RX2) and maximum annual consecutive 3-day precipitation (RX3) and evaluation of Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI). Trends were identified in two of three weather stations investigated. Positive precipitation trends were found in the spring and winter for Lages, and in the spring and summer for São Joaquim. Also, there is a trend of increase in the RX1, RX2 and RX3 frequencies and an increase in positive anomalies in the last decade for these stations. There are no statistically significant trends in the precipitation of Campos Novos, which may be associated with the short series of available data for the analysis. The occurrence of El Niño phenomenon with moderate to strong intensity was usually associated with the occurrence of positive precipitation anomalies and the La Niña phenomenon was related to the occurrence of negative anomalies. However, the influence of La Niña in the periods of negative anomaly has been reduced since the beginning of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Drought Frequency Analysis Based on the Development of a Two-Variate Standardized Index (Rainfall-Runoff)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gholamreza Nikravesh ◽  
Mohammad Aghababaei ◽  
Mohammad Nazari-Sharabian ◽  
Moses Karakouzian
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Flow Index ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Standardized Index ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought is one of the most drastic events, which has imposed irreparable damages on human societies and may occur in any climate regime. To define drought, given its properties of multidimensionality and randomity, one cannot rely on a single variable/index (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff). Accordingly, implementing a novel approach, this study investigated drought events in two basins with different climatic regimes, using multivariate frequency analyses of drought duration, severity, and severity peak, based on developing a Two-variate Standardized Index (TSI). The index was developed based on the concept of copula, by applying rainfall-runoff data (1974–2019) and comparing them with two popular drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Stream Flow Index (SSFI), in terms of derived drought characteristics. The results show that TSI determined more severe drought conditions with fewer return periods than SPI and SSFI in a specific drought event. This implies that the disadvantages of SPI and SSFI might not be found in TSI. The developed index can be employed by policymakers and planners to protect water resources from drought.

scholarly journals Drought Occurrence in Central European Mountainous Region (Tatra National Park, Slovakia) within the Period 1961–2010

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jaroslav Vido ◽  
Tsegaye Tadesse ◽  
Zbyšek Šustek ◽  
Radoslav Kandrík ◽  
Miriam Hanzelová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Park ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Central European ◽  
Drought Variability ◽  
Tatra Mts ◽  
Tatra National Park ◽  
Gis Methods ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Occurrence

Drought has recently become a significant topic in the Central European region. It has been observed that the drought phenomenon has severe impacts on the agriculture, hydrology, social, and economic sectors of lowland areas. This study focuses on how drought, defined as a precipitation shortage, occurs in higher altitudes of the Tatra National Park (Tatra Mts., Slovakia), which is a significant biological reserve of the Central European fauna and flora. The main goals of this research include identifying drought variability and its characteristics over the Tatra National Park in the West Carpathians (Slovakia), especially to characterizing drought variability and its spatial pattern across the Tatra National Park from 1961 to 2010 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and standard Geographic Information System (GIS) methods. The results showed that frequency of drought occurrence has cyclic pattern with approximately 30-year period. The spatial analyses showed that precipitation shadow of the mountains influences the risk of drought occurrence. The drought-prone areas over the mountains are also identified.

scholarly journals Dry and Wet Events in Andean Populations of Northern Peru: A Case Study of Chachapoyas, Peru

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús Rascón ◽  
Wildor Gosgot Angeles ◽  
Lenin Quiñones Huatangari ◽  
Manuel Oliva ◽  
Miguel Ángel Barrena Gurbillón
Keyword(s):  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
The North ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Climate change and population growth have heavily impacted the ecosystem’s water resources, essential for anthropogenic activities. These also apply to the Andean city of Chachapoyas, located in the north of Peru, which has gone through a substantial population increase in recent years, therefore increasing its water demand. This research aimed to assess dry and wet events from 1981 to 2019 that have taken place in Chachapoyas, by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These events were periodically characterized, and the index relationship was determined at different timescales. The SPI and SPEI indices were calculated at the city’s only weather station for timescales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months using climatic data. The indices showed a remarkably consistent behavior for timescales of 12 and 24 months detecting an extreme drought event in 1993, while for timescales of 3 and 6 months a severe drought event was detected in the same year. Contrastingly, there has been an increase in extreme wet events in the last decade, hence Chachapoyas is categorized between "moderate drought" and “moderate wet”. It should be noted that the indices have a high correlation between them when calculated for the same timescale. The results were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Considering the results obtained related to dry and wet events and their relation with economic activities such as environmental management, we can conclude that the SPI and SPEI indices are useful and valuable tools for local and regional governments.

scholarly journals Past and Future Precipitation Trend Analysis for the City of Niamey (Niger): An Overview

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Velia Bigi ◽  
Alessandro Pezzoli ◽  
Maurizio Rosso
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Precipitation Analysis ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
West African Sahel ◽  
The City

Despite the interest in detecting the extremes of climate in the West African Sahel, few studies have been specifically conducted on the Republic of Niger. This research focuses on past, present, and future precipitation trends for the city of Niamey through the combined assessment of WMO precipitation indices using RClimDex and the Standardized Precipitation Index. Past daily precipitation data were derived from a 60-year reconstructed meteorological dataset for the Niamey airport station for the period of 1950–2009 and validated through comparison with an observed time series at Niamey airport (1980–2012). Precipitation analysis confirms the literature’s findings, in particular, a decreasing trend in total precipitation over the period of 1950–2009, and a positive trend for data that spans over the period of 1980–2009, suggesting a precipitation recovery after the dry epoch (1968–1985), even if the deficit with the wettest years in the period of 1950–1968 has not been made up. Furthermore, WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim projections, elaborated under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 socio-economic conditions, show that precipitation will increase in the future. Therefore, the Nigerien population will benefit from increased rainfall, but will also have to cope with the exacerbation of both flood and drought risks due to a great interannual variability that can positively or negatively influence water availability.

scholarly journals Bivariate Assessment of Drought Return Periods and Frequency in Brazilian Northeast Using Joint Distribution by Copula Method

Geosciences ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodrigo Lins da Rocha Júnior ◽  
Fabrício Daniel dos Santos Silva ◽  
Rafaela Lisboa Costa ◽  
Heliofábio Barros Gomes ◽  
David Duarte Cavalcante Pinto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Probability Distributions ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Bivariate Distribution ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Spatially Distributed ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

The Northeast region of Brazil (NRB) is the most populous semiarid area in the world and is extremely susceptible to droughts. The severity and duration of these droughts depend on several factors, and they do not necessarily follow the same behavior. The aim of this work is to evaluate the frequency of droughts in the NRB and calculate the return period of each drought event using the copula technique, which integrates the duration and severity of the drought in the NRB in a joint bivariate distribution. Monthly precipitation data from 96 meteorological stations spatially distributed in the NRB, ranging from 1961 to 2017, are used. The copula technique is applied to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on the three-month time scale, testing three families of Archimedean copula functions (Gumbel–Hougaard, Clayton and Frank) to reveal which model is best suited for the data. Averagely, the most frequent droughts observed in the NRB are concentrated in the northern sector of the region, with an observed duration varying from three and a half to five and a half months. However, the eastern NRB experiences the most severe droughts, lasting for 14 to 24 months. The probability distributions that perform better in modeling the series of severity and duration of droughts are exponential, normal and lognormal. The observed severity and duration values show that, for average values, the return period across the region is approximately 24 months. Still in this regard, the southernmost tip of the NRB stands out for having a return period of over 35 months. Regarding maximum observed values of severity and duration, the NRB eastern strip has the longest return period (>60 months), mainly in the southeastern portion where a return period above 90 months was observed. The northern NRB shows the shortest return period (~45 months), indicating that it is the NRB sector with the highest frequency of intense droughts. These results provide useful information for drought risk management in the NRB.

scholarly journals Drought Variability and Characteristics in the Muda River Basin of Malaysia from 1985 to 2019

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1210
Author(s):  
Zibeon bin Luhaim ◽  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Fredolin Tangang ◽  
Zed Zulkafli ◽  
Kwok Pan Chun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Almost All

This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of historical droughts over the Muda River basin (MRB), Malaysia, from 1985 to 2019 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). The Mann–Kendall test and Sens’ slope were used to evaluate the trends and magnitude changes in the droughts, respectively, while Spearman’s rho was applied to understand the relationships of the droughts with large-scale atmospheric circulations, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). The results show that the intense droughts in the MRB mostly occurred in 1991–1992, 1995, 1998, 2002–2003, 2005–2006, 2008, 2012–2013, and 2016. In addition, a declining SPI trend was found from May to December at most of the stations. About 80% of the stations experienced about 10 severely dry droughts, while almost all stations experienced at least 5 extremely dry events. Moreover, a higher response rate of the SSI than the SPI was found during low-rainfall months from January to May. Lastly, ENSO had a larger impact on the drought formations over the MRB compared to the IOD and MJO, especially during the dry period.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Trends of Meteorological Droughts in the Wadi Mina Basin, Northwest Algeria

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3103
Author(s):  
Mohammed Achite ◽  
Andrzej Wałęga ◽  
Abderrezak Kamel Toubal ◽  
Hamidi Mansour ◽  
Nir Krakauer
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Geographical Variations ◽  
The People ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Temporal Dimensions ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Droughts ◽  
Precipitation Trends

Drought has become a recurrent phenomenon in Algeria in the last few decades. Significant drought conditions were observed during the late 1980s and late 1990s. The agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from the recurrent droughts. In this study, spatial and temporal dimensions of meteorological droughts in the Wadi Mina basin (4900 km2) were investigated to assess vulnerability. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method and GIS were used to detail temporal and geographical variations in drought based on monthly records for the period 1970–2010 at 16 rainfall stations located in the Wadi Mina basin. Trends in annual SPI for stations in the basin were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results showed that the SPI was able to detect historical droughts in 1982/83, 1983/84, 1989/90, 1992/93, 1993/94, 1996/97, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2004/05 and 2006/07. Wet years were observed in 1971/72, 1972/73, 1995/96, 2008/09 and 2009/10. Six out of 16 stations had significant decreasing precipitation trends (at 95% confidence), whereas no stations had significant increasing precipitation trends. Based on these findings, measures to ameliorate and mitigate the effects of droughts, especially the dominant intensity types, on the people, community and environment are suggested.

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