scholarly journals Dry and Wet Events in Andean Populations of Northern Peru: A Case Study of Chachapoyas, Peru

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jesús Rascón ◽  
Wildor Gosgot Angeles ◽  
Lenin Quiñones Huatangari ◽  
Manuel Oliva ◽  
Miguel Ángel Barrena Gurbillón
Keyword(s):  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Climatic Data ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
The North ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Climate change and population growth have heavily impacted the ecosystem’s water resources, essential for anthropogenic activities. These also apply to the Andean city of Chachapoyas, located in the north of Peru, which has gone through a substantial population increase in recent years, therefore increasing its water demand. This research aimed to assess dry and wet events from 1981 to 2019 that have taken place in Chachapoyas, by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). These events were periodically characterized, and the index relationship was determined at different timescales. The SPI and SPEI indices were calculated at the city’s only weather station for timescales of 3, 6, 12, and 24 months using climatic data. The indices showed a remarkably consistent behavior for timescales of 12 and 24 months detecting an extreme drought event in 1993, while for timescales of 3 and 6 months a severe drought event was detected in the same year. Contrastingly, there has been an increase in extreme wet events in the last decade, hence Chachapoyas is categorized between "moderate drought" and “moderate wet”. It should be noted that the indices have a high correlation between them when calculated for the same timescale. The results were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Considering the results obtained related to dry and wet events and their relation with economic activities such as environmental management, we can conclude that the SPI and SPEI indices are useful and valuable tools for local and regional governments.

scholarly journals Drought Frequency Analysis Based on the Development of a Two-Variate Standardized Index (Rainfall-Runoff)

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2599 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gholamreza Nikravesh ◽  
Mohammad Aghababaei ◽  
Mohammad Nazari-Sharabian ◽  
Moses Karakouzian
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Flow Index ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Standardized Index ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought is one of the most drastic events, which has imposed irreparable damages on human societies and may occur in any climate regime. To define drought, given its properties of multidimensionality and randomity, one cannot rely on a single variable/index (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, and runoff). Accordingly, implementing a novel approach, this study investigated drought events in two basins with different climatic regimes, using multivariate frequency analyses of drought duration, severity, and severity peak, based on developing a Two-variate Standardized Index (TSI). The index was developed based on the concept of copula, by applying rainfall-runoff data (1974–2019) and comparing them with two popular drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Stream Flow Index (SSFI), in terms of derived drought characteristics. The results show that TSI determined more severe drought conditions with fewer return periods than SPI and SSFI in a specific drought event. This implies that the disadvantages of SPI and SSFI might not be found in TSI. The developed index can be employed by policymakers and planners to protect water resources from drought.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought Characteristics Based on Standardized Precipitation Index in Central Java over 1990-2010

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012022
Author(s):  
Misnawati ◽  
R Boer ◽  
F Ramdhani
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Central Java ◽  
Moderate Drought

Abstract Drought is a natural hazard that results from a deficiency of precipitation, leading to low soil moisture and river flows, reduced storage in reservoirs, and less groundwater recharge. This study investigates the spatial variations of drought characteristics (drought event frequency, duration, severity, and intensity). This study using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to analyse the drought characteristics in Central Java during 1990-2010. The rain gauge station data and CHIRPS rainfall data over Central Java is used to calculate the SPI index. The SPI was calculated at multiple timescales (1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, 24- and 48-month), the run theory was used for identification and characterization of drought events. Analysis of drought characteristics by SPI from 1990 to 2010 shows the longest drought event is four months, the maximum drought severity is 6.06, and the maximum drought intensity is 2.02. El Nino year probability drought occurrence reached 100% in August for moderate drought, severe drought, and extreme drought category, whereas the probability drought occurrences in the Normal and La Nina year range 0-70% for moderate drought, 0-50% for severe drought category and 0-40% for extreme drought category. The results of this study may help inform researchers and local policymakers to develop strategies for managing drought.

scholarly journals Drought Assessment using GRACE Terrestrial Water Storage Deficit in Mongolia from 2002 to 2017

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1301 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu ◽  
Li ◽  
Cao ◽  
Schillerberg
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Terrestrial Water Storage ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Climate warming can result in increases in the frequency and magnitude of drought events, leading to water shortages and socioeconomic losses. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data have been used to monitor and estimate drought events. However, there is little information on detecting the characteristics of droughts in Mongolia due to sparse observations. In this study, we estimate the drought conditions in Mongolia using GRACE terrestrial water storage data during 2002–2017. Water storage deficit (WSD) is used to identify the drought event and calculate the water storage deficit index (WSDI). The WSDI was compared with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The results showed that there were two turning points of WSD in 2007 and 2012. Eight drought events were identified and the most severe drought occurred in 2007–2009 lasting for 38 months with a WSDI of −0.98 and a total WSD of −290.8 mm. Overall, the WSD and WSDI were effective in analyzing and assessing the drought severity in a region where hydrological observations are lacking.

scholarly journals Trends in national and regional scale drought in New Zealand

2020 ◽  
Vol 383 ◽  
pp. 307-314
Author(s):  
Daniel G. Kingston ◽  
Eleanor J. Treadwell
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Spatial Coverage ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Moderate Drought ◽  
Extended Duration ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract. Drought is a critical natural hazard in New Zealand, affecting both agricultural production and hydro-electric generation. However, the detection and characterisation of drought events are complicated by the range of different drought metrics available. Here, time-series variation in drought is investigated for New Zealand using two commonly used indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Both the SPI and SPEI are calculated from WATCH Forcing ERA-Interim data (a bias-corrected version of ERA-Interim). Analyses are based on the proportion of New Zealand experiencing at least “moderate” drought (i.e. index values at the threshold of −1 or lower). There is no statistically significant difference in area in drought between the two indices averaged over the time series, and no national-scale trends in drought occurrence are identified. However, a statistically significant trend of divergence between the SPI and SPEI is present when examining drought at moderate spatial coverage (10 % and 20 % coverage based on SPEI), with the SPEI showing increasingly greater drought coverage. These typically become more apparent either as a major drought event is building or terminating. As such, the SPEI generally indicates an extended duration (rather than higher peak extent) of drought events. The spatial expression of the largest SPI-SPEI differences reveals “hotspots” in terms of both average and divergent trends in drought extent, results which are reflected in a regional drought analysis using a cluster analysis of the SPI and SPEI area in drought. In particular, SPEI drought coverage is greater in the South Island east coast and central/southwestern North Island regions. Conversely, SPI drought extent is greater in the eastern North Island. Overall, the differences and similarities in drought extent between the SPI and SPEI can be linked to the highly varied nature of New Zealand climate, with the instances of greater SPEI drought located in regions of driest and most continental climate.

scholarly journals Assessment of Drought Event, its Trend and Teleconnected Factors Over Burundi, Central East Africa

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanase Nkunzimana ◽  
Bi Shuoben ◽  
Wang Guojie ◽  
Ahmed Alriah Mohamed Abdallah ◽  
Isaac Sarfo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Drought Assessment ◽  
The North ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Short Rains ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Very High

Abstract This study assessed the drought events across Burundi for 37 years ranging from 1981 to 2017. The drought assessment was conducted using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 1, 3, 6 and 12-month time scales. The Mann Kendall and Modified Mann Kendall trend tests and Sen’s slope statistic tests were used to analyse the spatiotemporal drought trend. The overall analysis of SPI-3, SPI-6 and SPI-12 outputs revealed that the Northern part of Burundi was the most threatened by dry events, and more than 80% of the extremely and severely dry events occurred within the period 1993–2000. The drought magnitude varied highly in the short rains season (SOND) than during the long rains season (MAM) specifically during the 1990s decade. The cumulative frequency of extremely dry events was very high in the North with 5.2%, 6.1% and 7.4 % at 3, 6 and 12-month time scales respectively. Likewise, the northern part experienced both short, medium and long dry periods, thus 88 consecutive dry months within only 8 years. The North and East regions exhibited a positive increasing trend over annual and seasonal time scales at both 3, 6, and 12 months of SPI analysis while the mountainous region and the South experienced a significant decreasing trend. The first abrupt point issued by forward and backward sequential statistics occurred in 1990, the year corresponding to the beginning of the driest period. Dry years are associated with circulation anomalies over the Indian Ocean and La Nina events.

scholarly journals Analysis of Drought in the Northern Region of Bangladesh Using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 199-216
Author(s):  
R Afrin ◽  
F Hossain ◽  
SA Mamun
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Extended Period ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Rainfall Data ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Drought Analysis ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought is an extended period when a region notes a deficiency in its water supply. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method was used in this study to analyze drought. Northern region of Bangladesh was the area of study. Monthly rainfall data of northern region of Bangladesh was obtained from the Meteorological Department of Bangladesh. Obtained rainfall data was from 1991 to 2011 and values from 2012 to 2026 were generated using Markov model. Then SPI values from 1991 to 2026 were calculated by using SPI formula for analyzing drought. Analysis with SPI method showed that droughts in northern region of Bangladesh varied from moderately dry to severely dry conditions and it may vary from moderately dry to severely dry conditions normally in future but in some cases extreme drought may also take place. From the study, it is observed that the northern region of Bangladesh has already experienced severe drought in 1991, 1992, 1994, 1995, 1997, 1998, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2007, 2009 and 2010. The region may experience severe drought in 2012, 2015, 2016, 2018, 2019, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 and 2026 and extreme drought in 2012, 2014, 2016, 2023 and 2024. J. Environ. Sci. & Natural Resources, 11(1-2): 199-216 2018

scholarly journals Evaluation of temporal drought variation and projection in a tropical river basin of Kerala

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (S1) ◽  
pp. 115-132 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Jincy Rose ◽  
N. R. Chithra
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Tropical River ◽  
The Past ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract Temperature is an indispensable parameter of climate that triggers evapotranspiration and has vital importance in aggravating drought severity. This paper analyses the existence and persistence of drought conditions which are said to prevail in a tropical river basin which was once perennial. Past observed data and future climate projections of precipitation and temperature were used for this purpose. The assessment and projection of this study employ the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) compared with that of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The results indicate the existence of drought in the past and the drought conditions that may persist in the future according to RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The past drought years identified in the study were compared with the drought declared years in the state and were found to be matching. The evaluation of the future scenarios unveils the occurrence of drought in the basin ranging from mild to extreme conditions. It has been noted that the number of moderate and severe drought months has increased based on SPEI compared to SPI, indicating the importance of temperature in drought studies. The study can be considered as a plausible scientific remark helpful in risk management and application decisions.

Demographic Impact on Environment - A Case Study Focussing on CO2 Emission in China

1998 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 81-87
Author(s):  
Kenji Hayashi ◽  
Jianqun Gao
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Energy Transition ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
High Fertility ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
The North ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emission derived from economic activities results primarily from the fossil fuels consumed. The variety of fossil fuels used, the degree of efficient consumption of energy, economic growth and national population size determine the total amount of CO2 emission in a country. Considering its population size as well as its potential for economic development, China is expected to play a key role in the global warming issue in concert with other industrialized Asian countries, including Japan. In the present study, the impact of population increase on total CO2 emission in China during the period 1982-1990 was analyzed. During the study period, population increase and CO2 emission per capita were 21 per cent and 70 per cent, respectively. In terms of population increase by region, some provinces in the inland areas and megacities, like Shanghai and Beijing, contributed the highest figures. To cope with high fertility in the inland areas as well as massive population inflow into the urban areas simultaneously, increasing the number of medium-sized cities to be located in the inland areas could be a solution. For CO2 emission per capita, the figures for the North-Eastcrn provinces and South-Eastern provinces along the coast are remarkable. The estimate of total emission of CO2 by 2010 is 1.6 million tons, a 74 per cent increase from 1992. Energy transition is the key to the stabilization of CO2 emission in China.

Spatio-temporal changes of drought in Romania (1961-2015), according to atmospheric circulation types and teleconnection indices

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radu-Vlad Dobri ◽  
Liviu Apostol ◽  
Lucian Sfîcă ◽  
Simona Țîmpu ◽  
Ion-Andrei Niță
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Circulation Types ◽  
Teleconnection Indices ◽  
Moderate Drought

<p>Drought can be determined by climatic conditions (atmospheric precipitation, water supply from soil accessible to the plant, moisture and air temperature and wind speed) but is also induced by environmental aspects some of them related to anthropogenic influences.</p><p>In order to monitor the drought and its impact for Romania, four indices were analyzed in the present study (SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), PNI (Percent of Normal Index), DI (Deciles index), and ZSI (Z-score Index)), through Meteorological Drought Monitoring software, using the total daily amount of precipitation for 27 weather stations in Romania, of which 22 stations for the period 1961-2015, 4 stations for the period 1961-2000 and one station for the period 1964-2015.</p><p>Preliminary analyzes resulting from the use of these indices were correlated with 18 GWT (Großwettertypen) atmospheric circulation types of daily mean sea level pressure (SLP). This was done using COST733 class software to evaluate the influence of large-scale mechanisms of atmospheric circulation. Also, four teleconnection indices were used, more exactly AO (Arctic Oscillation), NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), PNA (Pacific-North American Pattern) and AAO (Antarctic Oscillation) that are recognized for their effect on climatic conditions at European scale,  <br>provided by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) – Climate Prediction Center.</p><p>Therefore, according to the types of circulation, the amount of precipitation produced in certain areas and implicitly the degree of drought severity is influenced. The types of anticyclonal circulation 13, 16 or 18, for example, which occur on average in 46 (12.7%), 14 (3.9%) , respectively 20 (5.4%) days a year, cause less precipitation as known, compared to the types of cyclonal circulation 1, 2 or 17 for example with an average of 12 (3.2%), 12 (3.2%), respectively 19 (4.3%) days a year.</p><p>In terms of drought analysis indices, according to SPI, the entire analysis interval for Iasi, located in the northeast region of Romania, was 6 years of "moderately dry", 5 years of "severely dry", and one year of "extremely dry", unlike Cluj, located in the central western region, with two years of "moderately dry", 3 years of "severely dry" and two years of "extremely dry". In Bucharest, located in the southern region of Romania there were 4 "moderately dry" years and 5 "severely dry" years. In Iasi, according to the ZSI index with the same classifications as the SPI index, there were 3 "moderately drought" years, 7 "severely drought" years and 7 "extreme drought" years, while in Cluj there were 9, 3 and respectively 6 years and in Bucharest 7, 5 and respectively 6 years with the above classification.</p><p>According to the PNI index, there were 5 "moderate drought" years in Iasi and Cluj and 6 "moderate drought" years in Bucharest. Also, there were 9 "weak drought" years in Iasi, 3 in Cluj and 5 in Bucharest.</p><p>And last but not least, according to the DI index, at all 3 stations there were 5 "extreme drought" years, 6 "severe drought" years and 5 "moderate drought" years.</p>

scholarly journals Computation of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Its Use to Assess Drought Occurrences in Cameroon over Recent Decades

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (10) ◽  
pp. 2310-2324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guy Merlin Guenang ◽  
F. Mkankam Kamga
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Research Unit ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
East Anglia ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Short Time

AbstractThe standardized precipitation index (SPI) is computed and analyzed using 55 years of precipitation data recorded in 24 observation stations in Cameroon along with University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (CRU) spatialized data. Four statistical distribution functions (gamma, exponential, Weibull, and lognormal) are first fitted to data accumulated for various time scales, and the appropriate functions are selected on the basis of the Anderson–Darling goodness-of-fit statistic. For short time scales (up to 6 months) and for stations above 10°N, the gamma distribution is the most frequent choice; below this belt, the Weibull distribution predominates. For longer than 6-month time scales, there are no consistent patterns of fitted distributions. After calculating the SPI in the usual way, operational drought thresholds that are based on an objective method are determined at each station. These thresholds are useful in drought-response decision making. From SPI time series, episodes of severe and extreme droughts are identified at many stations during the study period. Moderate/severe drought occurrences are intra-annual in short time scales and interannual for long time scales (greater than 9 months), usually spanning many years. The SPI calculated from CRU gridded precipitation shows similar results, with some discrepancies at longer scales. Thus, the spatialized dataset can be used to extend such studies to a larger region—especially data-scarce areas.

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