scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Trends of Meteorological Droughts in the Wadi Mina Basin, Northwest Algeria

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (21) ◽  
pp. 3103
Author(s):  
Mohammed Achite ◽  
Andrzej Wałęga ◽  
Abderrezak Kamel Toubal ◽  
Hamidi Mansour ◽  
Nir Krakauer
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Geographical Variations ◽  
The People ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Temporal Dimensions ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Droughts ◽  
Precipitation Trends

Drought has become a recurrent phenomenon in Algeria in the last few decades. Significant drought conditions were observed during the late 1980s and late 1990s. The agricultural sector and water resources have been under severe constraints from the recurrent droughts. In this study, spatial and temporal dimensions of meteorological droughts in the Wadi Mina basin (4900 km2) were investigated to assess vulnerability. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) method and GIS were used to detail temporal and geographical variations in drought based on monthly records for the period 1970–2010 at 16 rainfall stations located in the Wadi Mina basin. Trends in annual SPI for stations in the basin were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. Results showed that the SPI was able to detect historical droughts in 1982/83, 1983/84, 1989/90, 1992/93, 1993/94, 1996/97, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2004/05 and 2006/07. Wet years were observed in 1971/72, 1972/73, 1995/96, 2008/09 and 2009/10. Six out of 16 stations had significant decreasing precipitation trends (at 95% confidence), whereas no stations had significant increasing precipitation trends. Based on these findings, measures to ameliorate and mitigate the effects of droughts, especially the dominant intensity types, on the people, community and environment are suggested.

scholarly journals Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 3635-3661 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Spinoni ◽  
Paulo Barbosa ◽  
Edoardo Bucchignani ◽  
John Cassano ◽  
Tereza Cavazos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hot Spots ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
First Century ◽  
Horn Of Africa ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

AbstractTwo questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981–2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, ~15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (~47% under RCP4.5, ~49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.

scholarly journals TREND DETECTION OF METROLOGICAL DROUGHT IN NORTH OF IRAQ

2021 ◽  
Vol 25 (3) ◽  
pp. 60-73
Author(s):  
Ihsan F. Hasan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Trend Detection ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Mild Drought

This study presents an analysis of meteorological drought using multi time-scales of Standardized Precipitation Index SPI (6, 9 and 12 month), based on observed 49-year daily mean precipitation data records at 11 stations over the Northern region of Iraq. The detection of drought trends in results of SPI analysis was studied to identify whether there is any increase or decrease in the severity of drought at the selected meteorological Stations; Mann Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator were used to detect statistically significant trends. The results indicate that there is a statistically significant decreasing trend of SPI time series at 5% significant level in most of the selected stations. Based on drought categories the meteorological drought in the study region can be classified as mild drought.

scholarly journals Impacts of groundwater over exploitation on the renewal and hydrodynamic behavior of the alluvial aquifer of Sidi Bel Abbes (Algerian NW)

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdelkader Otmane ◽  
Kamila Baba-Hamed ◽  
Abderrazak Bouanani ◽  
Radia Gherissi
Keyword(s):  
Water Potential ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Alluvial Aquifer ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Drainage Flows ◽  
Large Water ◽  
Over Exploitation ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrodynamic Data

AbstractSidi Bel Abbes plain, in Western Algeria, covers an area of 813 km2 and holds an important groundwater reservoir, providing the region with a large water potential. It displays characteristics of a peri-urban aquifer, with a large agricultural sector. The climatic variations that affected this region, the development of industrial and agricultural activities along with the over-exploitation of the groundwater resource negatively impact the aquifer's hydrodynamic balance. This work is structured around a multiapproach process based mainly on geophysical data to determine the reservoir bathymetry, rainfall data, humidity data using the standardized precipitation index (SPI), piezometric maps, hydrodynamic data, and groundwater extraction rate. Results revealed a significant decrease in humidity values over time. This negatively influences the water potential of the alluvial aquifer and induces a lateral recharge from adjacent aquifers (overfilling). Indeed, the rainfall contribution to the recharge appears low compared to that of the surrounding aquifers. However, total annual rainfall above 500 mm/year may reduce the input of the adjacent aquifers. Besides, our study indicates a well-defined hydrodynamic pattern in the alluvial aquifer, due to the bowl-shaped bedrock of the aquifer and the excessive overexploitation, especially downstream (the region of Sidi Bel Abbes). Thus, this aquifer adapted to such exploitation, through continuous and systematic recharge of drainage flows by the upstream groundwater (regions characterized by a wall uplift). The aquifer’s pluviometric dependence occurs clearly in its south-western part. A 50% humidity value implies a 0–10 m increase in the water table.

scholarly journals Variabilities and Trends of Rainfall, Temperature, and River Flow in Sipi Sub-Catchment on the Slopes of Mt. Elgon, Uganda

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (13) ◽  
pp. 1834
Author(s):  
Justine Kilama Luwa ◽  
Jackson-Gilbert Mwanjalolo Majaliwa ◽  
Yazidhi Bamutaze ◽  
Isa Kabenge ◽  
Petter Pilesjo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Coefficient Of Variation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

The variabilities in rainfall and temperature in a catchment affect water availability and sustainability. This study assessed the variabilities in rainfall and temperature (1981–2015) and river flow (1998–2015) in the Sipi sub-catchment on annual and seasonal scales. Observed daily rainfall and temperature data for Buginyanya and Kapchorwa weather stations were obtained from the Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA), while the daily river-flow data for Sipi were obtained from the Ministry of Water and Environment (MWE). The study used descriptive statistics, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Mann–Kendall trend analysis, and Sen’s slope estimator. Results indicate a high coefficient of variation (CV) (CV > 30) for August, September, October, and November (ASON) seasonal rainfall, while annual rainfall had a moderate coefficient of variation (20 ˂ CV ˂ 30). The trend analysis shows that ASON minimum and mean temperatures increased at α = 0.001 and α = 0.05 levels of significance respectively in both stations and over the entire catchment. Furthermore, annual and March, April, and May (MAM) river flows increased at an α = 0.05 level of significance. A total of 14 extremely wet and dry events occurred in the sub-catchment during the post-2000 period, as compared to five in the pre-2000. The significant increased trend of river flow could be attributed to the impacts of climate and land-use changes. Therefore, future studies may need to quantify the impacts of future climate and land-use changes on water resources in the sub-catchment.

scholarly journals Drought Variability and Characteristics in the Muda River Basin of Malaysia from 1985 to 2019

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 1210
Author(s):  
Zibeon bin Luhaim ◽  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Fredolin Tangang ◽  
Zed Zulkafli ◽  
Kwok Pan Chun ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Response Rate ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Almost All

This study aimed to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of historical droughts over the Muda River basin (MRB), Malaysia, from 1985 to 2019 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI). The Mann–Kendall test and Sens’ slope were used to evaluate the trends and magnitude changes in the droughts, respectively, while Spearman’s rho was applied to understand the relationships of the droughts with large-scale atmospheric circulations, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO). The results show that the intense droughts in the MRB mostly occurred in 1991–1992, 1995, 1998, 2002–2003, 2005–2006, 2008, 2012–2013, and 2016. In addition, a declining SPI trend was found from May to December at most of the stations. About 80% of the stations experienced about 10 severely dry droughts, while almost all stations experienced at least 5 extremely dry events. Moreover, a higher response rate of the SSI than the SPI was found during low-rainfall months from January to May. Lastly, ENSO had a larger impact on the drought formations over the MRB compared to the IOD and MJO, especially during the dry period.

scholarly journals Spatio-temporal patterns of meteorological droughts in the Balearic Islands (Spain)

2016 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 49 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Lorenzo-Lacruz ◽  
E. Morán-Tejeda
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
High Water ◽  
Northern Region ◽  
Balearic Islands ◽  
Mountain Range ◽  
The South ◽  
The One ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

The Balearic Islands is a region highly prone to suffer meteorological and hydrological droughts, mainly due to the high intra- and inter-annual variability of precipitation, and the high water consumption associated to summer touristic pressure. In this work we aim to characterize the spatial and temporal characteristics of meteorological droughts in the region using a high-density precipitation database for the three main islands. The “Standardized Precipitation Index – SPI” was calculated for each of the 50 precipitation series at the temporal scale of 12 months, which enabled pinpointing in time and space the main drought episodes from 1974 to 2014. Moreover, a Principal Component Analysis performed over the 50 12-month SPI series allowed us to identify two main patterns of drought variability, with a clear spatial distribution. The occurrence of droughts in the northern sector – including the Tramuntana mountain range (Majorca) and Minorca Island – was contrasted and independent to the occurrence of droughts in the southern areas. Similarly, the duration of droughts shows a decreasing trend for the northern region, and a slight increase for the southern stations. Two great drought episodes were identified, with a contrasted spatial propagation: The one in 1988-1991 affected mainly the northern region whereas in the south moist conditions prevailed; and the one occurred in 1999-2001, which affected the whole region but started its propagation from the south, and ended with extreme drought conditions in the eastern part of the territory. Results obtained highlight the need for studies of high spatial resolution in order to accurately assess the spatiotemporal patterns of meteorological droughts.

scholarly journals Assessment of Drought Over Parambikulam Aliyar Basin of Tamil Nadu

2020 ◽  
pp. 35-42
Author(s):  
Guhan V. ◽  
Geethalakshmi V. ◽  
Panneerselvam S. ◽  
Raviraj A. ◽  
Lakshmanan A. ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tamil Nadu ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Social Systems ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Scientific Basis ◽  
The People ◽  
Wet Condition ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Event Quantification ◽  
Drought Occurrence

Rainfall has a greater impact on agricultural, hydrological, economic, environmental and social systems. Inconsistencies in rainfall pattern could lead to extremities like drought and flood. Drought is a long period of unusually low rainfall that severely affects crop production and welfare of the people. Understanding the impacts of drought is crucial for planning, mitigation and responses.  The Standardized precipitation index (SPI) method was employed for identifying drought occurrence in Parambikulam aliyar basin based on rainfall data of 37 years (1981–2017). SPI method indicated PAP basin had drought once in 4 years. In 19 per cent times, wet situation found to exist in PAP basin, five years exhibited moderately wet condition (1984, 1996, 2010, 2015 and 2017) and two years (1992 and 2005) fell under extremely wet event. Quantification on the drought events forms the scientific basis for decision makers to reduce the societal vulnerability to drought.

scholarly journals Analysis of Long-Term Variations of Drought Characteristics Using Standardized Precipitation Index over Zambia

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1268
Author(s):  
Bathsheba Musonda ◽  
Yuanshu Jing ◽  
Vedaste Iyakaremye ◽  
Moses Ojara
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Drought Characteristics ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Seasonal Time Scale ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

This study examines long-term spatial and temporal trends of drought characteristics based on the Standardized Precipitation Index at three different time scales (3, 6, and 12 months) over Zambia from 1981 to 2017. Drought characteristic conditions such as duration, severity, and intensity at monthly, seasonal, and annual levels were analyzed to investigate the drought patterns over Zambia. The results show a significant increase in drought events over the southwestern regions and a decrease over the northeastern regions. It is in this regard that two stations from different locations (southwest and northeast) were analyzed. The results show increasing trends of drought over Sesheke (southwest) and decreasing trends over Kasama (northeast). More drought impacts are felt over southern compared to northern areas, which poses a serious concern to both agriculture and hydrological industries over the drought-prone areas of Southern Zambia. However, the analysis further shows that droughts were more intense, persistent, and severe over the southwest, while moderate droughts were found in some few areas of Northeast Zambia. The Mann–Kendall test trend and slope indicated that both annual and seasonal drought have increased. However, drought increment at an annual level shows a low magnitude as compared to the seasonal level. This suggested the importance of evaluating drought at an interannual and seasonal time scale over Zambia. Specifically, the drought increased determinedly before 2010 and became erratic between 2010 and 2017 with considerable regional variation. Zambia experienced moderate to severe droughts during 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2006–2005, and 2015–2016, which resulted in serious damages to the environment and society. According to the findings of this study, it is suggested that the implications of drought can be managed by creating strategies and adaptation measures.

TREND ANALYSIS FOR DROUGHT EVENT IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
FADHILAH YUSOF ◽  
FOO HUI–MEAN ◽  
SHARIFFAH SUHAILA ◽  
KONG CHING–YEE
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Trend Identification ◽  
Drought Occurrence

In this paper, the geostatistics application is employed for analysis of drought events in verifying the upward or increasing and downward or decreasing trend during the drought occurrence. About 33 years of daily precipitation data obtained from 69 stations during the period of November, 1975 to October, 2008 in Peninsular Malaysia are analyzed to characterize the trend of dry events. The amount of precipitation is classified based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to determine the drought periods and proceed with the Mann–Kendall test for trend identification. These results are further verified by applying the kriging method. The kriging results describe that the trend values for drought events in Peninsular Malaysia interprets an upward trend especially in eastern and western parts.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Analysis of the Frost Regime in the Iberian Peninsula in the Context of Climate Change (1975–2018)

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (15) ◽  
pp. 8491
Author(s):  
Abelardo García-Martín ◽  
Luis L. Paniagua ◽  
Francisco J. Moral ◽  
Francisco J. Rebollo ◽  
María A. Rozas
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Iberian Peninsula ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Early Spring ◽  
Absolute Minimum ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Frost Free Period

Climate change is having many effects in the agricultural sector, which are being studied worldwide. Undoubtedly, warmer winters and earlier springs produce changes in frost regimes and severity that will affect the sustainability of agricultural production in the area. The Mediterranean region and the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are among the areas where the greatest impact of climate change is expected. Daily data from 68 weather stations of the IP belonging to the European Climate Assessment and Dataset (1975–2018) were used to conduct a spatiotemporal study of the frost regime. The variables calculated include the probability of three frost types according to their severity, frost day, mean absolute minimum yearly temperature, first frost day, last frost day, and frost-free period. These variables were integrated into a geographic information system, which allowed the graphical visualization of their patterns using of geostatistical interpolation techniques (kriging). Changes in frost variables were investigated using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. A general reduction in the number of frosts per year is observed (values between −0.04- and −0.8-day frosts per year), as well as an increase in the mean absolute minimum temperature (values between 0.04 and 0.10 °C per year), with very high significant trends throughout the territory. The reduction in the number of frosts is more pronounced at a higher elevation. Frost dates vary greatly due to the orographic characteristics of the IP. The generalized trend is of a significant delay of the autumn frosts (values between 0.4 and 1.06 days/year), as well as early spring frosts (between −0.429 and −1.29 days/year), and as a consequence a longer frost-free period, all changes were much stronger than those found in other regions of the world. These effects of climate change must be mitigated by modifying species, varieties, and cultivation techniques to guarantee sustainable agriculture.

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