scholarly journals Past and Future Precipitation Trend Analysis for the City of Niamey (Niger): An Overview

Climate ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 73 ◽  
Author(s):  
Velia Bigi ◽  
Alessandro Pezzoli ◽  
Maurizio Rosso
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Precipitation Trend ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Precipitation Analysis ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
West African Sahel ◽  
The City

Despite the interest in detecting the extremes of climate in the West African Sahel, few studies have been specifically conducted on the Republic of Niger. This research focuses on past, present, and future precipitation trends for the city of Niamey through the combined assessment of WMO precipitation indices using RClimDex and the Standardized Precipitation Index. Past daily precipitation data were derived from a 60-year reconstructed meteorological dataset for the Niamey airport station for the period of 1950–2009 and validated through comparison with an observed time series at Niamey airport (1980–2012). Precipitation analysis confirms the literature’s findings, in particular, a decreasing trend in total precipitation over the period of 1950–2009, and a positive trend for data that spans over the period of 1980–2009, suggesting a precipitation recovery after the dry epoch (1968–1985), even if the deficit with the wettest years in the period of 1950–1968 has not been made up. Furthermore, WATCH-Forcing-Data-ERA-Interim projections, elaborated under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 socio-economic conditions, show that precipitation will increase in the future. Therefore, the Nigerien population will benefit from increased rainfall, but will also have to cope with the exacerbation of both flood and drought risks due to a great interannual variability that can positively or negatively influence water availability.

scholarly journals Impact of Agricultural Drought on Sunflower Production across Hungary

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 1339
Author(s):  
Endre Harsányi ◽  
Bashar Bashir ◽  
Firas Alsilibe ◽  
Karam Alsafadi ◽  
Abdullah Alsalman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Sunflower Production

In the last few decades, agricultural drought (Ag.D) has seriously affected crop production and food security worldwide. In Hungary, little research has been carried out to assess the impacts of climate change, particularly regarding droughts and crop production, and especially on regional scales. Thus, the main aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of agricultural drought on sunflower production across Hungary. Drought data for the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were collected from the CARBATCLIM database (1961–2010), whereas sunflower production was collected from the Hungarian national statistical center (KSH) on regional and national scales. To address the impact of Ag.D on sunflower production, the sequence of standardized yield residuals (SSYR) and yield losses YlossAD was applied. Additionally, sunflower resilience to Ag.D (SRAg.D) was assessed on a regional scale. The results showed that Ag.D is more severe in the western regions of Hungary, with a significantly positive trend. Interestingly, drought events were more frequent between 1990 and 2010. Moreover, the lowest SSYR values were reported as −3.20 in the Hajdu-Bihar region (2010). In this sense, during the sunflower growing cycle, the relationship between SSYR and Ag.D revealed that the highest correlations were recorded in the central and western regions of Hungary. However, 75% of the regions showed that the plantation of sunflower is not resilient to drought where SRAg.Dx < 1. To cope with climate change in Hungary, an urgent mitigation plan should be implemented.

scholarly journals Classificação de Eventos Extremos de Precipitação em Múltiplas Escalas de Tempo em Belém-PA: Utilizando o Índice de Precipitação Normalizada (Classification of Extreme Precipitation Events in Multiple Time Scales in Belém, PA: Using the Standardized ...)

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 628
Author(s):  
Sérgio Rodrigo Quadros dos Santos ◽  
Celia Campos Braga ◽  
Ana Paula Paes dos Santos ◽  
Thamiris Luiza De Oliveira Brandão Campos ◽  
José Ivaldo Barbosa de Brito
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Multiple Time Scales ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The City

O Índice de Precipitação Normalizada (SPI) é utilizado para quantificar o déficit e/ou excesso de precipitação nas múltiplas escalas de tempo. Ele tem se mostrado bastante útil no monitoramento da precipitação, principalmente pela sua flexibilidade, simplicidade de cálculo e interpretação. Desta forma este estudo tem como objetivo quantificar os eventos extremos secos e chuvosos na cidade de Belém-PA nas escalas de tempo de 3, 6 e 12 meses por meio do SPI. Para isto, utilizaram-se dados mensais de precipitação provenientes da estação meteorológicas de superfície do INMET no período de 1980-2011. Os resultados mostraram que a escala de tempo do SPI é inversamente proporcional à frequência dos eventos de chuva e seca. Os SPIs 3,6 e 12 mostraram mais eventos secos do que chuvosos para a cidade e a maioria dos eventos de chuva e seca estavam associados, principalmente, ao fenômeno ENOS. ABSTRACT The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to quantify the deficit/ excess rainfall at multiple time scales. It has been very useful in monitoring of precipitation, mainly because of its flexibility, ease of calculation and interpretation. Thus this study aims to quantify the extreme wet and dry events in the city of Belém-PA in time scales of 3, 6 and 12 months by SPI. For this, we used monthly precipitation data from meteorological station at the INMET in the period 1980-2011. The results show that the timescale of the SPI is inversely proportional to the frequency of rain and dry events. The SPIs 3.6 and 12 showed driest events that rainy events to the city and most of the rainfall and drought events were associated, mainly, with the ENSO phenomenon. Key Words: Belem; SPI; Extreme Event.   

Assessing future drought conditions under a changing climate: a case study of the Lake Urmia basin in Iran

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1851-1861 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edris Ahmadebrahimpour ◽  
Babak Aminnejad ◽  
Keivan Khalili
Keyword(s):  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Lake Urmia ◽  
Changing Climate ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract This study was conducted to assess the impacts of climate change on drought over the Lake Urmia basin, Iran. Drought events for 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 were analyzed based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and were compared with the adopted baseline period (1976–2005). The SPI and SPEI were calculated using the precipitation and temperatures obtained from the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 as optimistic and pessimistic scenarios respectively. The results of SPI analyses revealed that under RCP 2.6 the frequency of droughts is almost constant while under RCP 8.5 drought frequency increased especially in the period 2071–2100. The calculated SEPI under both scenarios and during all future periods predict that the frequency and duration of droughts will increase. Generally, the difference between the SPI and SPEI is related to the input to each index. SPI is solely based on precipitation while the SPEI accounts for both precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET). Under global warming and changing climate, the significant role of PET was highlighted. It was concluded that the SPEI outperformed the SPI for drought studies under a changing climate.

TREND ANALYSIS FOR DROUGHT EVENT IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
FADHILAH YUSOF ◽  
FOO HUI–MEAN ◽  
SHARIFFAH SUHAILA ◽  
KONG CHING–YEE
Keyword(s):  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Drought Event ◽  
Upward Trend ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Trend Identification ◽  
Drought Occurrence

In this paper, the geostatistics application is employed for analysis of drought events in verifying the upward or increasing and downward or decreasing trend during the drought occurrence. About 33 years of daily precipitation data obtained from 69 stations during the period of November, 1975 to October, 2008 in Peninsular Malaysia are analyzed to characterize the trend of dry events. The amount of precipitation is classified based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) to determine the drought periods and proceed with the Mann–Kendall test for trend identification. These results are further verified by applying the kriging method. The kriging results describe that the trend values for drought events in Peninsular Malaysia interprets an upward trend especially in eastern and western parts.

scholarly journals The Use Of Standardized Indicators (SPI And SPEI) In Predicting Droughts Over The Republic Of Moldova Territory

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 149-158
Author(s):  
M. Nedealcov ◽  
V. Răileanu ◽  
R. Sîrbu ◽  
R. Cojocari
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Temporal Estimation ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Calculation Software

Abstract The drought events frequent manifestation over the Republic of Moldova territory, in the context of climate change requires a scientific monitoring adjusted to international researchers. In recent years, internationally, the estimation of this phenomenon occurs through standardized indexes. The most used of these, being the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Since there is no a unified definition of drought, the World Meteorological Organization proposes to calculate the indexes, through developed calculation software. Thus, based on multi-annual data (1980-2014) a regional spatio-temporal estimation concerning drought in the Republic of Moldova was performed, thereby realizing the regional investigations framing in the international ones.

scholarly journals Evaluation of meteorological drought using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the High Ziz River basin, Morocco

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 125-135 ◽  
Author(s):  
Khadija Diani ◽  
Ilias Kacimi ◽  
Mahmoud Zemzami ◽  
Hassan Tabyaoui ◽  
Ali Torabi Haghighi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Significant Trend ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Complex Nature ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract One of the adverse impacts of climate change is drought, and the complex nature of droughts makes them one of the most important climate hazards. Drought indices are generally used as a tool for monitoring changes in meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and economic conditions. In this study, we focused on meteorological drought events in the High Ziz river Basin, central High Atlas, Morocco. The application of drought index analysis is useful for drought assessment and to consider methods of adaptation and mitigation to deal with climate change. In order to analyze drought in the study area, we used two different approaches for addressing the change in climate and particularly in precipitation, i) to assess the climate variability and change over the year, and ii) to assess the change within the year timescale (monthly, seasonally and annually) from 1971 to 2017. In first approach, precipitation data were used in a long time scale e.g. annual and more than one-year period. For this purpose, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was considered to quantify the rainfall deficit for multiple timescales. For the second approach, trend analysis (using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test) was applied to precipitation in different time scales within the year. The results showed that the study area has no significant trend in annual rainfall, but in terms of seasonal rainfall, the magnitude of rainfall during summer revealed a positive significant trend in three stations. A significant negative and positive trend in monthly rainfall was observed only in April and August, respectively.

scholarly journals Assessing the changes in drought conditions during summer in the Republic of Moldova based on RegCM simulations

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vera Potop ◽  
Constanta Boroneant ◽  
Mihaela Caian
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Republic Of Moldova ◽  
Drought Conditions ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Monthly Precipitation Data

We assess the changes in drought conditions during summer in the Republic of Moldova based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated from monthly precipitation data simulated by the regional climatic model RegCM3. The RegCM simulations were conducted at a horizontal resolution of 10 km in the framework of EU-FP6 project -CECILIA. The domain was centered over Romania at 46°N, 25°E and included the Republic of Moldova.

scholarly journals Hydrological long-term dry and wet periods in the Xijiang River basin, South China

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 135-148 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Fischer ◽  
M. Gemmer ◽  
B. Su ◽  
T. Scholten
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
South China ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Spatial Disparities ◽  
Xijiang River ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
The Xijiang River ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Abstract. In this study, hydrological long-term dry and wet periods are analyzed for the Xijiang River basin in South China. Daily precipitation data of 118 stations and data on daily discharge at Gaoyao hydrological station at the mouth of the Xijiang River for the period 1961–2007 are used. At a 24-month timescale, the standardized precipitation index (SPI-24) for the six sub-basins of the Xijiang River and the standardized discharge index (SDI-24) for Gaoyao station are applied. The monthly values of the SPI-24 averaged for the Xijiang River basin correlate highly with the monthly values of the SDI-24. Distinct long-term dry and wet sequences can be detected. The principal component analysis is applied and shows spatial disparities in dry and wet periods for the six sub-basins. The correlation between the SPI-24 of the six sub-basins and the first principal component score shows that 67% of the variability within the sub-basins can be explained by dry and wet periods in the east of the Xijiang River basin. The spatial dipole conditions (second and third principal component) explain spatiotemporal disparities in the variability of dry and wet periods. All sub-basins contribute to hydrological dry periods, while mainly the northeastern sub-basins cause wet periods in the Xijiang River. We can also conclude that long-term dry events are larger in spatial extent and cover all sub-basins while long-term wet events are regional phenomena. A spectral analysis is applied for the SPI-24 and the SDI-24. The results show significant peaks in periodicities of 11–14.7 yr, 2.8 yr, 3.4–3.7 yr, and 6.3–7.3 yr. The same periodic cycles can be found in the SPI-24 of the six sub-basins but with some variability in the mean magnitude. A wavelet analysis shows that significant periodicities have been stable over time since the 1980s. Extrapolations of the reconstructed SPI-24 and SDI-24 represent the continuation of observed significant periodicities at given magnitudes until 2030. The projected hydrological long-term dry and wet periods can be used for planning purposes in water resources management. The applied methodologies prove to be able to identify spatial disparities, and to detect significant periodicities in hydrological long-term dry and wet periods in the Xijiang River basin.

scholarly journals Assessment of meteorological drought in agricultural locations from Venezuela under future projections of climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (3) ◽  
pp. 548-572
Author(s):  
Miguel Silva Borges ◽  
Naghely Mendoza
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
High Variability ◽  
Reference Period ◽  
Reference Series ◽  
Scale Parameters ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Human Ecosystems ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

Drought is a phenomenon that is difficult to detect and predict, and with devastating consequences for natural, agricultural and human ecosystems. In order to know the future effects that climate change could have on this phenomenon in eight agricultural localities of Venezuela, the changes in the magnitude and duration of meteorological drought events were evaluated, for the reference series and for future series (period 2050s), projected by NCAR-CCSM4, GISS-E2-R, NIMR-HADGEM2-AO and MPI-ESM-LR models, for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Drought events were estimated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the monthly scale and keeping the shape and scale parameters of the reference period. The results reveal a high variability of drought events among stations, models and scenarios; but with a common increase of the magnitude and duration of drought events for all models, mainly under the RCP 8.5 scenario. For the NCAR-CCSM4 model, there would be the greatest increase in the analyzed characteristics, in contrast to the NIMR-HADGEM2-AO model. The localities with droughts of greater magnitude and duration would be Barinitas and Pariaguán.

Characterizing Germany’s 2018 drought in the context of wet and dry spells since 1901

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mathilde Erfurt ◽  
Rüdiger Glaser ◽  
Kerstin Stahl
Keyword(s):  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Precipitation Data ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Daily Precipitation Data ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

&lt;p&gt;In 2018, large areas of central and northern Europe were affected by an extreme drought. The water deficit propagated through the hydrologic cycle causing precipitation, soil moisture and, towards the end of 2018, streamflow and groundwater deficits. In Germany many socio-economic sectors were severely affected by the drought, e.g. the forestry sector has still not recovered. Main drivers for drought propagation are precipitation deficits. However, the natural variability of dry and wet precipitation patterns over time and space make characterization of droughts and predictions of impacts still challenging.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This study investigates German meteorological drought characteristics within general wet and dry spells since 1901 using station based daily precipitation data. Daily, monthly and seasonal aggregated indices such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to characterize duration, severity and spatial extent of the 2018 drought. These characteristics were then compared with events of extreme droughts since 1901. Even though the meteorological drought of 2018 was extreme considering only precipitation data, we found comparable extremes in the past, for instance 1949 or 1964. However, based on what we observe in the SPI-12, clusters of extreme dry years in the 20th century were often followed by clusters of above average wet years, probably leading to a reduction of impacts in the following years. Since 2003, however, dry patterns predominate. Even though annual precipitation amounts are predicted to increase slightly in the study region this analysis shows the importance of analyzing sub annual as well as multi-year characteristics of precipitation patterns.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Including both wet and dry conditions when characterizing the severity of current drought events may improve our understanding of extreme meteorological drought events causing severe and long lasting impacts.&lt;/p&gt;

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