scholarly journals Long and Short-term Volatility Comovements in the East Asian Stock

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (3) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Jin Yong Yang ◽  
Sang-Heon Lee ◽  
In-Sung Yeo
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Volatility Clustering ◽  
Volatility Model ◽  
Starting Point

This study analyzed volatility comovement and contagion in the stock markets of four countries (China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan) in East Asia, which are closely connected with each other geographically and economically in terms of short-term and long-term perspectives. The volatility of stock returns has complex properties of not only volatility clustering, but also long memory, regime change, and substantial outliers. This study reviewed the volatility comovement and contagion in a stock market from long-term and short-term perspectives with the Bivariate Markov Switching Multifractal (BMSM) volatility model that is known for explaining such characteristics well, in spite of using small number of parameters. The empirical analysis results are as follows: China has no significant correlation with the other three countries. Therefore, China stock market is regarded as isolated or segmented market. The influence of the financial crisis on East Asian countries varies depending on the country. Regardless of the starting point of the crisis, Korea and Taiwan are shown to be vulnerable to external impact, compared to China and Japan. From the perspective of the nature of crisis, financial crisis that occurred in 1997 in East Asia and South Europe in 2011 were identified as local shocks as they had an impact on only a few countries, while the global crisis in 2008 was identified as global shock because it caused significant short-term and/or mid and long-term volatility of all countries.

scholarly journals Do Overnight Returns Truly Measure Firm-Specific Investor Sentiment in the KOSPI Market?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (13) ◽  
pp. 3718 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sang Ik Seok ◽  
Hoon Cho ◽  
Chanhi Park ◽  
Doojin Ryu
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Market Returns ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Stock Market Returns ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Korean Stock Market ◽  
Korean Market

This study analyzes the effect of overnight returns on subsequent stock market returns and investigates whether they do capture investor sentiment in the Korean stock market. Recent study showed that overnight returns are similar to existing sentiment measures, and, thus, are suitable for measuring firm-specific investor sentiment in the U.S. market. Similarly, we found that, for firms in the Korean market, high overnight returns are followed by higher stock returns in the short term (i.e., two or three trading days) but lower stock returns in the long term. However, these effects do not differ for different types of firms (i.e., hard-to-value firms), whereas classical firm-specific sentiment indicators capture these differences. Overall, we found that overnight returns do not truly measure firm-specific investor sentiment in the Korean stock market even though they are partially related to investor sentiment.

scholarly journals Quantitative Easing and the U.S. Stock Market: A Decision Tree Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-156
Author(s):  
Ramaprasad Bhar ◽  
A.G. Malliaris ◽  
Mary Malliaris
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Quantitative Easing ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The U.S

The Financial Crisis of 2007-09 caused the U.S. economy to experience a relatively long recession from December 2007 to June 2009. Both the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve undertook expansive fiscal and monetary policies to minimize both the severity and length of the recession.  Most notably, the Federal Reserve initiated three rounds of unconventional monetary policies known as Quantitative Easing.  These policies were intended to reduce long-term interest rates when the short term federal funds rates had reached the zero lower bound and could not become negative. It was argued that the lowering of longer-term interest rates would help the stock market and thus the wealth of consumers.  This paper investigates this hypothesis and concludes that quantitative easing has contributed to the observed increases in the stock market’s significant recovery since its crash due to the financial crisis

Short Term and Long Term Herding Prospects: Evidence from Pakistan Stock Exchange

2021 ◽  
pp. 119-144
Author(s):  
Shaista Jabeen ◽  
Sayyid Salman Rizavi
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fundamental Information ◽  
New Information ◽  
Herd Behaviour ◽  
Price Instability

The present research intends to examine the herd behaviour of investors in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). Herd behaviour in stock market is sometimes based on fundamental information, which causes quick price adjustments to new information and leads to efficient markets. Still, sometimes it is not dependent on fundamental information and results in price instability. Herding can be a short term phenomenon, but sometimes a longer time span can provide favourable outcomes for the occurrence of herd behaviour. Considering these diverse views, intraday, daily, weekly, and monthly stock prices of 528 companies listed in the PSX have been used to calculate stock returns. Market-wide herd measure, i.e. CSAD, has been used to compute the herd behaviour. Data has been investigated for autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, and stationarity issues. Findings revealed that herding did not exist in PSX, but some sectors showed this behaviour. Herd behaviour was more likely to exist at a daily level. The tendency of occurrence of the herding phenomenon gradually decreases at intraday and weekly levels. However, herding cannot be taken as a long term phenomenon as just a single sector was evidenced about its existence at the monthly level. Herding is an inherent phenomenon that is very difficult to eliminate from the stock market completely. However, knowledge and information sharing can guide investors to improve this behaviour Keywords: Herd Behaviour, Behavioural Finance, Return Dispersions, Pakistan Stock Exchange, CSAD

scholarly journals Short-Term Event-Driven Analysis of the South-East Asia Financial Crisis: A Stock Market Approach

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 150
Author(s):  
Gerardo Alfonso Perez
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Foreign Exchange Market ◽  
Equity Market ◽  
South East Asia ◽  
The South ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Event Driven

A systematic short-term event review of the major events in the South-East Asia Financial crisis is presented in this article. This analysis adds to the existing literature by focusing on the equity market, rather than on the foreign exchange market where there is already abundant literature, as well as going to a granular level with the hope that the analysis of the short-term market reactions can help policy-maker make appropriate decisions understanding the likely implications on the stock market. Short-term movements in the equity market might have very substantial economic impacts on investors and on the broad economy. The existing literature tends to focus on longer time horizons but from an equity investor point of view short-term fluctuations might be equally important or even more. When analyzing longer time horizons these short-term fluctuations, which might cause investors to fully unwind their positions or even bankruptcies, might be average out, underestimating the potential impact on the investor. Given these practical considerations it seems important to carry out a short-term event driven analysis of this crisis.

Impact of FII’s and FDI’s on Indian Stock Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dr. Kamlesh Kumar Shukla
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Earnings Growth ◽  
The Past ◽  
Bull Market ◽  
Indian Stock Market

FIIs are companies registered outside India. In the past four years there has been more than $41 trillion worth of FII funds invested in India. This has been one of the major reasons on the bull market witnessing unprecedented growth with the BSE Sensex rising 221% in absolute terms in this span. The present downfall of the market too is influenced as these FIIs are taking out some of their invested money. Though there is a lot of value in this market and fundamentally there is a lot of upside in it. For long-term value investors, there’s little because for worry but short term traders are adversely getting affected by the role of FIIs are playing at the present. Investors should not panic and should remain invested in sectors where underlying earnings growth has little to do with financial markets or global economy.

scholarly journals Short-Term Exuberance and Long-Term Stability: A Simultaneous Optimization of Stock Return Predictions for Short and Long Horizons

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 620
Author(s):  
Ioannis Kyriakou ◽  
Parastoo Mousavi ◽  
Jens Perch Nielsen ◽  
Michael Scholz
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Simultaneous Optimization ◽  
Investment Risk ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Fundamental Interest ◽  
Long Term Stability ◽  
Risk Appetite ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Excess Stock Returns

The fundamental interest of investors in econometric modeling for excess stock returns usually focuses either on short- or long-term predictions to individually reduce the investment risk. In this paper, we present a new and simple model that contemporaneously accounts for short- and long-term predictions. By combining the different horizons, we exploit the lower long-term variance to further reduce the short-term variance, which is susceptible to speculative exuberance. As a consequence, the long-term pension-saver avoids an over-conservative portfolio with implied potential upside reductions given their optimal risk appetite. Different combinations of short and long horizons as well as definitions of excess returns, for example, concerning the traditional short-term interest rate but also the inflation, are easily accommodated in our model.

RESPONSE OF STOCK MARKET DURING COVID-19 AND 2008 FINANCIAL CRISIS: A COMPARATIVE EVIDENCE FROM BRICS NATIONS

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-24
Author(s):  
SANJEEV KUMAR ◽  
JASPREET KAUR ◽  
MOSAB I. TABASH ◽  
DANG K. TRAN ◽  
RAJ S DHANKAR
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Egarch Model ◽  
The 2008 Financial Crisis ◽  
The Impact

This study attempts to examine the response of stock markets amid the COVID-19 pandemic on prominent stock markets of the BRICS nation and compare it with the 2008 financial crisis by employing the GARCH and EGARCH model. First, average and variance of stock returns are tested for differences before and after the pandemic, t-test and F-test were applied. Further, OLS regression was applied to study the impact of COVID-19 on the standard deviation of returns using daily data of total cases, total deaths, and returns of the indices from the date on which the first case was reported till June 2020. Second, GARCH and EGARCH models are employed to compare the impact of COVID-19 and the 2008 financial crisis on the stock market volatility by using the data of respective stock indices for the period 2005–2020. The results suggest that the increasing number of COVID-19 cases and reported death cases hurt stock markets of the five countries except for South Africa in the latter case. The findings of the GARCH and EGARCH model indicate that for India and Russia, the financial crisis of 2008 has caused more stock volatility whereas stock markets of China, Brazil, and South Africa have been more volatile during the COVID-19 pandemic. The study has practical implications for investors, portfolio managers, institutional investors, regulatory institutions, and policymakers as it provides an understanding of stock market behavior in response to a major global crisis and helps them in taking decisions considering the risk of these events.

scholarly journals Asymmetric Reactions of China’s Stock Market to Short-Term Interest Rates

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fang Fang ◽  
Weijia Dong ◽  
Xin Lv
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Returns ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Bear Market ◽  
Bull Market ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Markov Regime Switching Model

This paper investigates how China’s stock market reacts to short-term interest rates, as represented by the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor). We adopt the Markov Regime Switching model to divide China’s stock market into Medium, Bull and Bear market; and then examine how Shibor influences market returns and risk in different market regimes. We find that short-term interest rates have a significant negative effect on stock returns in Medium and Bull market, but could not affect stock returns in Bear market. In addition, different maturities of Shibor have different effects on stock returns. Furthermore, we find that the short-term interest rates have a negative effect on market risk in Bull market, but a positive effect in Bear market. Our findings show that China’s market is quite peculiar and distinctive from the U.S. market or other developed countries’ markets in many ways.

COMMON FEATURES IN EAST ASIAN STOCK MARKETS: LONG-TERM AND SHORT-TERM COMOVEMENTS BETWEEN CHINA AND KOREA

2013 ◽  
Vol 58 (03) ◽  
pp. 1350018
Author(s):  
HAHN SHIK LEE ◽  
SOO IN KIM
Keyword(s):  
Stock Markets ◽  
East Asian ◽  
International Investment ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Chinese Stock Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Financial Firms ◽  
Contemporaneous Correlation ◽  
East Asian Stock Markets

As increasing attention has been given in recent literature to the potential of the Chinese financial market, we investigate the strength of shared dynamics among East Asian stock markets, by examining both the long-term and short-term comovements. In doing so, the cointegration analysis is used to assess the long-term relationship, whereas the notions of cofeature as well as contemporaneous correlation are employed to discuss the short-term relationship. The basic finding is that evidence for short-term comovement between the Korean and Chinese stock markets appears to be strong, while evidence for long-term relationship is rather weak. Empirical results from subsamples suggest that both the long-term and short-term relationships have strengthened since the acquisition of QFII qualification by Korean financial firms. These observations indicate that the international linkage between the two countries has strengthened along with increasing opportunities for international investment in the Chinese stock market.

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