scholarly journals Public Interest Payments and Bond Yields: A Panel Data Estimation for the Eurozone

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 109
Author(s):  
Nicolas Afflatet
Keyword(s):  
Public Interest ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Secondary Markets ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
Refinancing Costs ◽  
Interest Payments ◽  
Data Estimation

 Governments with high public debt risk that investors raise doubts about their ability to repay their debt since interest payments constitute an increasing share of public budgets. High interest payments may then fuel bond yields on secondary markets and subsequently lead to rising refinancing costs. This could precipitate a self-fulfilling prophecy according to which investors’ doubts about a default make the default more probable. Although there already are extensive research results on determinants of bond yields, the role of governments’ interest payments has not been duly taken into account. This paper tests whether the size of public interest payments had an influence on government bond yields during the European debt crisis. There seems to be indeed evidence that higher interest quotas and increasing interest-growth differentials entail higher bond yields. 

ASSESSING THE RISKS TO THE JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BOND MARKET

2013 ◽  
Vol 04 (01) ◽  
pp. 1350002 ◽  
Author(s):  
WAIKEI RAPHAEL LAM ◽  
KIICHI TOKUOKA
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Japanese Government ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Market Capacity ◽  
Debt Dynamics ◽  
The Government

Despite the rise in public debt, Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields have remained low and stable, supported by steady inflows from household and corporate sectors, high domestic ownership of JGBs, and safe-haven flows in light of ongoing European debt crisis. Nonetheless, the market capacity to absorb new government debt will likely decline over time as the population ages, posing risks for the JGB market. This paper examines the key risks of the JGB market, including a decline of private sector savings and potential spillovers from global financial distress, which could push up the government bond yields. A sharp rise in interest rate could pose challenges on public debt dynamics and financial stability in Japan. In that regard, more ambitious fiscal reforms to reduce public debt will help limit these risks.

scholarly journals The Dynamic Effects of Innovation, FDI, & Trade Liberalization on Services Sector: An Evidence from Developed and Developing Economies

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 116-132
Author(s):  
Muhammad Chishti ◽  
◽  
Farrukh Mehmood ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Liberalization ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Dynamic Effects ◽  
Services Sector ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
Productivity Differential ◽  
Data Estimation

The current study is a bid to explore the dynamic effects of Innovation, FDI, and trade openness on services sector in selected developed and developing economies for the period of 1992 to 2016. For computing the empirical findings, this study deploys the static as we all dynamic panel data estimation approaches. The results reveal the significant role of GDP per capita and FDI in the growth of services sector. However, the services sector incurs the detrimental repercussions on the account of trade liberalization. These findings also demonstrate that, in both samples of economies, the services sector does not respond to the productivity differential. Furthermore, innovation exhibits a significant association with the growth of services sector in the case of developing economies.

Money factors and EMU government bond markets' convergence

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dionisis Philippas ◽  
Costas Siriopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Common ◽  
International Investors ◽  
The Government ◽  
Current Financial Crisis ◽  
Market Convergence ◽  
Degree Of Convergence

Purpose – The authors aim to investigate the cointegrating relationship of the government bond yields, driven by the common money factors in European Monetary Union (EMU). Design/methodology/approach – By adopting a dynamic ARDL transformation, the paper provides short-/long-term estimates of bond yields convergence before the burst of the current debt crisis. It also investigates how the degree of convergence between bond yields, driven by money factors, is affected in short/long runs. Findings – The findings indicate that the introduction of the common currency has not a uniform effect on the bond yields, and there is a nominal convergence between EMU bond yields based on money market determinants. Originality/value – The current financial crisis indicates that the EMU bond market convergence was temporary and it can be highly affected by an exogenous shocks and the sentiment of international investors. The findings imply the necessity for a common monetary and fiscal policy in Euro zone countries.

An Empirical Analysis of Differences in GDP per Capita and the Role of Human Capital

2010 ◽  
Vol 24 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-107
Author(s):  
George Sfakianakis ◽  
Anastasios I. Magoutas ◽  
Demosthenes Georgopoulos
Keyword(s):  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
The Public ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
Production Function Approach ◽  
Panel Data Estimation Techniques ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Data Estimation

Using a generalized production function approach and insights from empirical research on the determinants of growth, this paper assesses the relative importance of specific factors in explaining differences in the levels of per capita GDP. Emphasis is placed on education, physical capital accumulation, the share of the public sector in economic activity and the outward orientation of economies. Education, among other things, is connected with the ability of countries to take advantage of technology transfer channels. Panel data estimation techniques are used to obtain empirical results for the EU-15 countries, and economic policy recommendations are evaluated accordingly.

scholarly journals The Role of Institutional Quality on Participation in Global Value Chains

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Barbero ◽  
Ernesto Rodríguez-Crespo
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Institutional Quality ◽  
Positive Association ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
Data Estimation

We explore the effect of institutional quality on participation in global value chains (GVCs) by distinguishing between backward and forward participation. Using a sample of 63 OECD and non-OECD countries during the period 2005–2015, the results obtained from a panel data estimation are twofold. First, we obtain a positive association between institutional quality and participation in GVCs, with slightly greater effects for backward than for forward participation. Second, we find that results are sensitive to the dimension of the institutions considered, with Voice and Accountability being associated with more backward participation, and Rule of Law and Political Stability with more forward participation

scholarly journals Economic growth and methane emission: testing the EKC hypothesis in ASEAN economies

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rana Muhammad Adeel-Farooq ◽  
Jimoh Olajide Raji ◽  
Bosede Ngozi Adeleye
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Kuznets Curve ◽  
Ekc Hypothesis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
Emission Testing ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Data Estimation

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to analyze the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis within the methane (CH4) emission–economic growth nexus among the six Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries from 1985 to 2012.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs dynamic panel data estimation approaches such as mean group (MG) and pooled MG (PMG) techniques.FindingsThe findings reveal that the EKC hypothesis for the CH4 emission in these economies proves to be valid. In other words, economic growth causes CH4 emissions to decrease. Nevertheless, energy consumption is deteriorating the environment by enhancing CH4 emissions in these countries.Originality/valueThe ASEAN region has experienced substantial economic growth over the previous few decades. Nevertheless, pollution has also increased manifolds in this region. Methane is a more potent greenhouse gas (GHG) as compared to carbon dioxide (CO2) and a major source of socio-economic issues in the ASEAN region. This study is the first in the existing literature on the EKC hypothesis examining the role of economic growth on CH4 emissions in the selected ASEAN countries. The outcomes of this study could be really beneficial for the policymakers in this region regarding sustainability and economic development.

scholarly journals Rankings In The Euro Zone Based On Macroeconomic Information

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 31-40
Author(s):  
Ma Carmen Garcia-Centeno ◽  
Jorge Uxo ◽  
Roman Minguez
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Multicriteria Decision Aid ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Panel Data Estimation ◽  
Macroeconomic Information ◽  
Increasing Risk ◽  
Data Estimation

One consequence of the Great Recession that began in 2008 has been the sovereign debt crisis within the European Monetary Union (EMU) and the increasing risk premium associated with government debt of "peripheral" countries (primarily, Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain). Firstly, this paper analyses what macroeconomic variables are more related with the evolution of the risk premium, using panel data estimation. Secondly, we also try to sort the countries belonging to the monetary union in terms of their likelihood of experiencing an increase in the risk premium. To this purpose, we use discrete multicriteria decision aid methods.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: The role of forecasting competitions

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (54) ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Jakub Rybacki
Keyword(s):  
Mean Squared Error ◽  
Government Bond ◽  
Bond Yields ◽  
Macroeconomic Forecasting ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Core Inflation ◽  
Squared Error ◽  
Score Inflation ◽  
Final Score

AbstractMacroeconomic forecasters are often believed to idealistically work on improving the accuracy of their estimates based on for example the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Unfortunately, reality is far more complex. Forecasters are not awarded equally for each of their estimates. They have their targets of acquiring publicity or to earn prestige. This article aims to study the results of Parkiet's competitions of macroeconomic forecasting during 2015–2019. Based on a logit model, we analyse whether more accurate forecasting of some selected macroeconomic variables (e.g. inflation) increases the chances of winning the competition by a greater degree comparing to the others. Our research shows that among macroeconomic variables three groups have a significant impact on the final score: inflation (CPI and core inflation), the labour market (employment in the enterprise sector and unemployment rate) and financial market indicators (EUR/PLN and 10-year government bond yields). Each group is characterised by a low disagreement between forecasters. In the case of inflation, we found evidence that some forecasters put a greater effort to score the top place. There is no evidence that forecasters are trying to somehow exploit the contest.

THE ROLE OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT IN STRENGTHENING DEMOCRACY

2016 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 115-131
Author(s):  
Mbuzeni Mathenjwa
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Local Government ◽  
United Nations ◽  
Public Interest ◽  
Legal Status ◽  
African Union ◽  
African Countries ◽  
The Status ◽  
Administrative Units

The place and role of local government within the structure of government in Africa has attracted much public interest. Prior to and after independence, African countries used local government as the administrative units of central governments without their having any legal status, to the extent that local authorities were under the strict control of central governments. The autonomy of local government is pivotal in the democratisation of a country. The United Nations, European Union and African Union have adopted treaties to promote the recognition and protection of local government in the state parties’ constitutions. Accordingly, this article explains the status of local government in Africa and its impact on strengthening democracy in African states.

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