scholarly journals Public spending and Wagner’s law in Central and Eastern European countries

2012 ◽  
Vol 60 (2) ◽  
pp. 383-390 ◽  
Author(s):  
Irena Szarowská
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
The Government ◽  
Eastern European Countries

This paper provides direct empirical evidence on cyclicality and the long-term and short-term relationship between government spending and output in eight Central and Eastern European countries in a period 1995–2009. We analyzed annual data on government spending in compliance with the COFOG international standard. Although the theory implies that government spending is countercyclical, our research does not prove that. The results confirm cyclical development of government spending on GDP, Wagner’s law and voracity effect in the CEE countries during 1995–2009. We used Johansen cointegration test and the error correction model. Output and government spending are cointegrated for at least 4 from 10 spending functions in every country and it implies a long-term relationship between government spending and output. The government spending functions are procyclical in most CEE countries (93% cases in the sample). Average value of long-run elasticity coefficient is 1.74 for all spending functions, 1.02 for total government spending. We also analyzed the short-run relationship between spending and output. The coefficient values (average is 2.89) confirm the voracity hypothesis, as they suggest that in response to a given shock to real GDP, government spending rises by even more in percentage points.

After 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Short-Term Dynamics of CDS, Bond, and Stock Markets in South Eastern European Economies

2013 ◽  
pp. 181-194
Author(s):  
Ali Sabri Taylan ◽  
Hüseyin Tatlidil
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Stock Markets ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Bond Markets ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Eastern European Countries

Credit risk pricing is perhaps an understudied topic in comparisons to its profound impact on the world’s financial markets and economies. This study uses established price discovery techniques to develop a method of price discovery for credit risk in three financial markets: equity, debt, and credit derivative. This chapter is motivated by the development of credit-related instruments and signals of stock price movements of South-Eastern European countries—Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, and Turkey—during the recent financial crisis. In this study, the authors evaluate the dynamics of fiscal risk or country risk measured by sovereign Credit Default Swap (CDS), liquidity risk measured bond markets, and stock markets for the monthly based September 2008 – February 2011 period. The study examines monthly data observing 38 months and 8 countries. A panel vector autoregression model is proposed for changes in Long-Term Interest Rate (LTIR), changes in CDS spreads (CDS), and changes in stock index. In conclusion, CDS markets and stock markets are more significant than bond markets in explaining the post-crisis relationship among developing South-Eastern European countries. The analysis displays that long-term monetary policy did not affect CDS premium and stock index level. A strong relationship is found between the CDS spread and stock market. During financial crisis and after the crisis, the correlations among CDS, stock, and bond markets are collapsed by panicked investors’ rapid movement and wild speculators. This risk perception can explain the difference between the finance theory and practices in the market.

Wagner’s law and governments’ functions: granularity matters

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 446-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joao Jalles
Keyword(s):  
Panel Data ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Functional Form ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Wagner’S Law ◽  
Potential Gdp ◽  
Wagner's Law ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Government

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess the responses of different categories of government spending to changes in economic activity. In other words, the authors empirically revisit the validation of the Wagner’s law in a sample of 61 advanced and emerging market economies between 1995 and 2015. Design/methodology/approach The authors do so via panel data instrumental variables and time-series SUR approaches. Findings Evidence from panel data analyses show that the Wagner’s law seems more prevalent in advanced economies and when countries are growing above potential. However, such result depends on the government spending category under scrutiny and the functional form used. Country-specific analysis revealed relatively more cases satisfying Wagner’s proposition within the emerging markets sample. The authors also found evidence of counter-cyclicality in several spending items. All in all, the Wagner’s regularity seems more the exception than the norm. Originality/value While in the literature on the size of the public sector with respect to a country’s level of economic development has received much attention, the authors make several novel contributions: since some economists criticized Wagner’s law because of ambiguity of the measurement of government expenditure (Musgrave, 1969), instead of looking at aggregate public expenditures, the authors go much more granular into the different functions of government (to this end, the authors use the Classification of Functions of the Government nomenclature). The authors check the validity of the Law via an instrumental variable approach in a panel setting; after that, the authors take into account the phase of the business cycle using a new filtering technique to compute potential GDP (output gap); then, the authors cross-check the baseline results by considering alternative functional form specifications of the Law; and finally, the authors look at individual countries one at the time via SUR analysis.

Austrian centre-right coalition faces difficult future

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asylum Seekers ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Programme ◽  
The Government ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Constitutional Changes

Significance The government consists largely of newcomers and politicians with dubious links to the far right. It embarks upon a five-year reform programme for Austria which is thin on detail but could lead to radical changes. Impacts A tougher stance on migrants and asylum seekers could foster a wider reluctance in some EU states to accept refugees. Major constitutional changes are unlikely as the government would need the support of the SPOe or the small Neos party. Any extreme right-wing tendencies will concern Brussels and Israel, which will keep a close eye on the government. Austria will be an unpredictable ally, sometimes siding with Macron and at other times favouring alliances with Eastern European countries. The SPOe’s loss of office could lead to changes in personnel and programmatic position.

scholarly journals Investigating the Energy–Economic Growth–Governance Nexus: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 3355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana-Maria Bercu ◽  
Gigel Paraschiv ◽  
Dan Lupu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Reduction ◽  
Good Governance ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Energy System ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Transmission And Distribution

Achieving the goals of sustainable development and poverty reduction implies an important condition for access to electricity for the entire population. In the economic literature, the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth has different perspectives. The lack of good governance within an economy, besides the deficiencies of energy resources, is a key issue in worsening energy issues for developing countries. These countries have failed to alleviate the energy crises that have hindered development prospects, amid flourishing corruption and inefficient governments. Our research, using a panel methodology, analyzes the long-term relationship between energy consumption, economic growth and good governance for 14 Central and Eastern European countries, over the period 1995–2017. The study demonstrates empirically that there is a causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth, underlining the fact that deficiencies in the energy system lead to slowing economic growth. The study also shows that good governance influences electricity and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) consumption, and the governments from Central and Eastern European countries have to restore good governance in the economy, creating an environment conducive to investment in the energy sector, which would increase competition and reduce inefficiencies in the production, transmission, and distribution of energy.

scholarly journals Smoking epidemic in Europe in the 21st century

2020 ◽  
pp. tobaccocontrol-2020-055658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fanny Janssen ◽  
Shady El Gewily ◽  
Anastasios Bardoutsos
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Wave Pattern ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Attributable Mortality ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Method ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Recent Cohort

ObjectiveTo estimate smoking-attributable mortality in the long-term future in 29 European countries using a novel data-driven forecasting approach that integrates the wave pattern of the smoking epidemic and the cohort dimension.MethodsWe estimated and forecasted age-specific and age-standardised smoking-attributable mortality fractions (SAMF) and 95% projection intervals for 29 European countries by sex, 1950–2100, using age-period-cohort modelling with a generalised logit link function. We projected the (decelerating) period increases (women) by a quadratic curve to obtain future declines, and extrapolated the past period decline (men). In addition, we extrapolated the recent cohort trend.ResultsSAMF among men are projected to decline from, on average, 25% in 2014 (11% (Sweden)—41% (Hungary)) to 11% in 2040 (range: 6.3%–15.4%), 7% in 2065 (range: 5.9%–9.4%) and 6% in 2100. SAMF among women in 21 non-Eastern European countries, currently at an average of 16%, are projected to reach peak levels in 2013 (Northern Europe), 2019 (Western Europe), 2027 (Greece, Italy) and 2022 (Central Europe), with maximum levels of, on average, 17% (8% (Greece)—28% (Denmark)), and to decline to 10% in 2040 (range: 4%–20%), 5% in 2065 (range: 3.5%–7.6%) and 4% in 2100. For women, a short-term shift in the peak of the inverse U-shaped age pattern to higher ages is projected, and crossovers between the age-specific trends.ConclusionOur novel forecasting method enabled realistic estimates of the mortality imprint of the smoking epidemic in Europe up to 2100. The high peak values in smoking-attributable mortality projected for women warrant attention.

scholarly journals Symbolic and pragmatic aspects of European identity

Sociologija ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
György Lengyel ◽  
Borbála Göncz
Keyword(s):  
European Countries ◽  
European Identity ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The European Union ◽  
National Belonging ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Symbolic Identity ◽  
Pragmatic Aspects ◽  
The Eu

It seems realistic that one of the long-term preconditions of European integration is the strengthening of European identity. Otherwise, it might happen that a growing split occurs between the elites and the population in the question of integration. In the Western European countries the concepts of Europe and the EU frequently coincide, while in the Eastern European countries Europe has primarily cultural-historical connotations and the EU embodies economic development and welfare. In an international comparison, European identity was stronger in the newly joining countries, but in some of them (i.e. in Hungary and Estonia) the national identity was among the strongest as well. The current study is based on a Hungarian representative survey carried out in 2003 - that is before Hungary joined the European Union. We supposed that class positions, the availability of material, cultural and social resources strongly influence European identity. We examined two aspects of identity, a symbolic and a pragmatic one. The symbolic identity was measured by questions addressing national vs. supra- and sub-national belonging, while pragmatic identity was approached by a question addressing the fair redistribution of taxes among the different levels. We could compare these dimensions and investigate the possible reasons for inconsistencies. .

scholarly journals Tax morale, Eastern Europe and European enlargement

2012 ◽  
Vol 45 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 11-25 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Tax Compliance ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Tax Morale ◽  
Country Level ◽  
The Government ◽  
Eastern European Countries

This study tries to remedy the current lack of tax compliance research analyzing tax morale in 10 Eastern European countries that joined the European Union in 2004 or 2007. By exploring tax morale differences between 1999 and 2008 we show that tax morale has decreased in 7 out of 10 Eastern European countries. This lack of sustainability may support the incentive based conditionality hypothesis that European Union has only a limited ability to influence tax morale over time. We observe that events and processes at the country level are crucial to understanding tax morale. Factors such as perceived government quality, trust in the justice system and the government are positively correlated with tax morale in 2008.

scholarly journals Motives and Characteristics of Highly Qualified Labor Force Migration: Case Study of Serbia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miloš Todorović ◽  
Aleksandar Đorđević
Keyword(s):  
Western Europe ◽  
Transitional Period ◽  
European Countries ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
Highly Qualified ◽  
Highly Educated ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Eastern European Countries

The emigration of highly qualified labour from the countries of Eastern Europe is one of the worst effects of transitional and post-transitional period. It discredits the educational system of Eastern European countries, but also creates long-term problems in the development of the economy and all other sectors of society. The difference in earnings between immigrant countries of Western Europe and North America and the countries of emigration is the dominant motive for migration. But other motives are also not irrelevant. This paper is an initial part of a wider research of the international movement of labour which should provide guidance to the countries of emigration to mitigate  the consequences of this process. Student surveys in Eastern European countries, their thoughts and plans, will provide information on the motives of emigration. On the other hand, by surveying the experiences of young highly educated workforce who has already emigrated, a true picture of experiences and the expected and achieved intentions will be obtained. Finally, certain questions in the questionnaire will also give an answer to the question, which would be new moments that would encourage young experts not to leave the country, or to return those who emigrated. Keywords: International migration, brain drain, state measures, retaining talent

European Integration

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johann P. Arnason
Keyword(s):  
European Integration ◽  
Eastern European ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Historical Processes ◽  
History Of ◽  
External Conditions ◽  
Eastern European Countries ◽  
Totalitarian Regimes ◽  
The Eu

Different understandings of European integration, its background and present problems are represented in this book, but they share an emphasis on historical processes, geopolitical dynamics and regional diversity. The introduction surveys approaches to the question of European continuities and discontinuities, before going on to an overview of chapters. The following three contributions deal with long-term perspectives, including the question of Europe as a civilisational entity, the civilisational crisis of the twentieth century, marked by wars and totalitarian regimes, and a comparison of the European Union with the Habsburg Empire, with particular emphasis on similar crisis symptoms. The next three chapters discuss various aspects and contexts of the present crisis. Reflections on the Brexit controversy throw light on a longer history of intra-Union rivalry, enduring disputes and changing external conditions. An analysis of efforts to strengthen the EU’s legal and constitutional framework, and of resistances to them, highlights the unfinished agenda of integration. A closer look at the much-disputed Islamic presence in Europe suggests that an interdependent radicalization of Islamism and the European extreme right is a major factor in current political developments. Three concluding chapters adopt specific regional perspectives. Central and Eastern European countries, especially Poland, are following a path that leads to conflicts with dominant orientations of the EU, but this also raises questions about Europe’s future. The record of Scandinavian policies in relation to Europe exemplifies more general problems faced by peripheral regions. Finally, growing dissonances and divergences within the EU may strengthen the case for Eurasian perspectives.

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