Resilience Analysis and Allocation for Complex Systems Using Bayesian Network

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nita Yodo ◽  
Pingfeng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Industrial Applications ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Supply Chain System ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Engineering System Design ◽  
Allocation Approach

The concept of resilience has been explored in diverse disciplines. However, there are only a few which focus on how to quantitatively measure engineering resilience and allocate resilience in engineering system design. This paper is dedicated to exploring the gap between quantitative and qualitative assessments of engineering resilience in the domain of designing complex engineered systems, thus optimally allocating resilience into subsystems and components level in industrial applications. A conceptual framework is first proposed for modeling engineering resilience, and then Bayesian Network is employed as a quantitative tool for the assessment and analysis of engineering resilience for complex systems. One industrial-based case study, a supply chain system, is employed to demonstrate the proposed approach. The proposed resilience quantification and allocation approach using Bayesian Networks would empower system designers to have a better grasp of the weakness and strength of their own systems against system disruptions induced by adverse failure events.

Resilience Modeling and Quantification for Design of Complex Engineered Systems Using Bayesian Networks

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyedmohsen Hosseini ◽  
Nita Yodo ◽  
Pingfeng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Electric Motor ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Quantitative Tool

The concept of engineering resilience has received prevalent attention from academia as well as industry because it contributes a new means of thinking about how to withstand against disruptions and recover properly from them. Although the concept of resilience was scholarly explored in diverse disciplines, there are only few which focus on how to quantitatively measure the engineering resilience. This paper is dedicated to explore the gap between quantitative and qualitative assessment of engineering resilience in the domain of design of complex engineered systems. A conceptual framework is first proposed for the modeling of engineering resilience, and then Bayesian network is employed as a quantitative tool for the assessment and analysis of engineering resilience for complex systems. A case study related to electric motor supply chain is employed to demonstrate the proposed approach. The proposed resilience quantification and analysis approach using Bayesian networks would empower system designers to have a better grasp of the weakness and strength of their own systems against system disruptions induced by adverse failure events.

A Generic Fusion Platform of Failure Diagnostics for Resilient Engineering System Design

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amirmahyar Abdolsamadi ◽  
Pingfeng Wang ◽  
Prasanna Tamilselvan
Keyword(s):  
Majority Voting ◽  
Classification Model ◽  
Engineering System ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Attribute Classification ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Fusion Diagnostics ◽  
Engineering System Design ◽  
Multiple Membership ◽  
Fusion Approach

Effective health diagnostics provides benefits such as improved safety, improved reliability, and reduced costs for the operation and maintenance of complex engineered systems. This paper presents a multi-attribute classification fusion approach which leverages the strengths provided by multiple membership classifiers to form a robust classification model for structural health diagnostics. The developed classification fusion approach conducts the health diagnostics with three primary stages: (i) fusion formulation using a k-fold cross validation model; (ii) diagnostics with multiple multi-attribute classifiers as member algorithms; and (iii) classification fusion through a weighted majority voting with dominance system. State-of-the-art classification techniques from three broad categories (i.e., supervised learning, unsupervised learning, and statistical inference) are employed as the member algorithms. The developed classification fusion approach is demonstrated with the 2008 PHM challenge problem. The developed fusion diagnostics approach outperforms any stand-alone member algorithm with better diagnostic accuracy and robustness.

scholarly journals Forensic Engineering Use Of Fault Tree Analysis

2006 ◽  
Vol 23 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank H. Johnson ◽  
DeWitt William E.
Keyword(s):  
Fault Tree ◽  
Fault Tree Analysis ◽  
Tree Analysis ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Track Record ◽  
Forensic Engineering ◽  
Fire And Explosion ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Analytical Tools

Analytical Tools, Like Fault Tree Analysis, Have A Proven Track Record In The Aviation And Nuclear Industries. A Positive Tree Is Used To Insure That A Complex Engineered System Operates Correctly. A Negative Tree (Or Fault Tree) Is Used To Investigate Failures Of Complex Engineered Systems. Boeings Use Of Fault Tree Analysis To Investigate The Apollo Launch Pad Fire In 1967 Brought National Attention To The Technique. The 2002 Edition Of Nfpa 921, Guide For Fire And Explosion Investigations, Contains A New Chapter Entitled Failure Analysis And Analytical Tools. That Chapter Addresses Fault Tree Analysis With Respect To Fire And Explosion Investigation. This Paper Will Review The Fundamentals Of Fault Tree Analysis, List Recent Peer Reviewed Papers About The Forensic Engineering Use Of Fault Tree Analysis, Present A Relevant Forensic Engineering Case Study, And Conclude With The Results Of A Recent University Study On The Subject.

scholarly journals Resiliency analysis for complex engineered system design

2015 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-108 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoda Mehrpouyan ◽  
Brandon Haley ◽  
Andy Dong ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer ◽  
Christopher Hoyle
Keyword(s):  
Electrical Power ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical System ◽  
Operating Environment ◽  
Electrical Power System ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Failure Propagation ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Mean Time

AbstractResilience is a key driver in the design of systems that must operate in an uncertain operating environment, and it is a key metric to assess the capacity for systems to perform within the specified performance envelop despite disturbances to their operating environment. This paper describes a graph spectral approach to calculate the resilience of complex engineered systems. The resilience of the design architecture of complex engineered systems is deduced from graph spectra. This is calculated from adjacency matrix representations of the physical connections between components in complex engineered systems. Furthermore, we propose a new method to identify the most vulnerable components in the design and design architectures that are robust to transmission of failures. Nonlinear dynamical system and epidemic spreading models are used to compare the failure propagation mean time transformation. Using these metrics, we present a case study based on the Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed, which is an electrical power system developed at NASA Ames as a subsystem for the ramp system of an infantry fighting vehicle.

scholarly journals ARCHITECTING COMPLEX ENGINEERED SYSTEMS

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 ◽  
pp. 2415-2424
Author(s):  
U. Sellgren ◽  
D. Williamsson
Keyword(s):  
Interaction Strength ◽  
Strength Model ◽  
Clustering Method ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Heterogeneous Technologies ◽  
Points Of View ◽  
Engineered Systems ◽  
Physical Components ◽  
Novel Products

AbstractNovel products are commonly realized by integrating heterogeneous technologies. Product architecting focus on defining the scheme by which the product functions are allocated to physical components. A DSM-based clustering method that integrates technical complexity and strategic concerns has previously been proposed. It has been shown that interaction weights in the DSM may affect the clustering result. A complexity-based interaction strength model to be used in DSM clustering is proposed here. The case study gives promising results from both interaction performance and safety points of view.

A Physics-Based Formal Vocabulary of Energy Verbs for Function Modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chiradeep Sen ◽  
Joshua D. Summers ◽  
Xiaoyang Mao
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Object Oriented ◽  
Expressive Power ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Minimal Set ◽  
Bottom Up ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Survey Results ◽  
Engineered Systems

Abstract Function modeling of complex systems relies on predefined vocabularies of functions and flows. These vocabularies are usually developed in a top-down approach, i.e., by starting with a survey of existing systems and identifying their functions empirically. These vocabularies, while highly useful in manual modeling due to their expressive power and coverage, can be unsuitable for computerized modeling and reasoning, esp. for physics-based reasoning. To this end, this paper presents a physics-based vocabulary of function verbs developed using the bottom-up approach, where the need for the verbs is identified through a survey of physics phenomena involving operations on various energy forms allowed in physics. This survey results in a minimal set of only six verbs and two logical nodes that are proposed here. Each term is formally defined as object-oriented classes derived from more foundational classes proposed in prior research. The paper shows many applications of these terms, for modeling both simpler devices and more complex engineered systems. Collectively, this new vocabulary provides sufficient coverage over modeling needs and ensures models that are logically consistent and physics-wise valid.

Increasing System Robustness Through a Utility-Based Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Baxter ◽  
Richard Malak
Keyword(s):  
Design Approach ◽  
System Model ◽  
Mars Rover ◽  
External Perturbations ◽  
Complex Engineered Systems ◽  
Box Models ◽  
Functional Models ◽  
System Robustness ◽  
Engineered Systems

Robustness is an important aspect of complex engineered systems. However, ambiguity in its definition can generate uncertainty among engineers about how to be sure that it is accounted for in their design. In this paper, robustness is defined as a property that allows a system to maintain its functions against anticipated internal and external perturbations. The important aspect of this definition is the focus of robustness on a per-function basis. A modified utility-based design approach is presented that provides a step by step implementation to help engineers ensure their designed systems meet their preferences and contain robust characteristics. The approach focuses on generating functional models of the proposed system. The functional models provide designers with insight into which internal and external perturbations should be included within the system model. An example case study is included to illustrate the steps of the modified utility-based design approach. The case study examines the entry, descent and landing of a Mars rover. The system and subsystems are modeled using black box models and EMS (Energy, Material, Signal) function structures. This allows the relevant internal and external perturbations to be modeled in the system model. The case study shows how using a utility-based analysis can produce a robust system.

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