Uncertainties in Predictions by System Thermal-Hydraulic Codes: The CASUALIDAD Method

Author(s):  
A. Petruzzi ◽  
F. D’Auria

The present paper deals with the description of the salient features of three independent approaches for estimating uncertainties associated with predictions of complex system codes. The 1st approach is the “standard” one and the most used at the industrial level: it is based upon the selection of input uncertain parameters, on assigning related ranges of variations and, possibly, PDF (Probability Density Functions) and on performing a suitable number of code runs to get the combined effect of variation on the results. In the 2nd approach the uncertainty derives from the comparison between relevant measured data and results of corresponding code calculations. The 3rd approach is based on the Bayesian inference technique and on the availability of experimental data by which computer model predictions can be improved and the ranges of variation of (in theory) ‘all’ input parameters can be characterized. More details are provided in respect with the third approach that has been named CASUALIDAD (Code with the capability of Adjoint Sensitivity and Uncertainty AnaLysis by Internal Data ADjustment and assimilation).

Author(s):  
A. Petruzzi ◽  
F. D’Auria

The present paper deals with the description of the salient features of three independent approaches for estimating uncertainties associated with predictions of complex system codes. The 1st approach is the “standard” one and the most used at the industrial level: it is based upon the selection of input uncertain parameters, on assigning related ranges of variations and, possibly, PDF (Probability Density Functions) and on performing a suitable number of code runs to get the combined effect of variation on the results. In the 2nd approach the uncertainty derives from the comparison between relevant measured data and results of corresponding code calculations. The 3rd approach is based upon a sensitivity analysis procedure and uses the experimental data to characterize the ranges of variation of ‘all’ input parameters. Selected results from the application of the 2nd approach are outlined.


Irriga ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 54-60
Author(s):  
Maria Vilma Tavares de Moura ◽  
Paulo Rodolfo Leopoldo ◽  
Sérgio Marques Júnior

UMA ALTERNATIVA PARA CARACTERIZAR O VALOR DA CONDUTIVIDADE HIDRÁULICA EM SOLO SATURADO   Maria Vilma Tavares de MouraSecretaria da Agricultura e Abastecimento do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte Br 101 - Km 0 – Lagoa Nova - Fone: (084) 2311212 CEP 57075-050  -   Natal-RNPaulo Rodolfo LeopoldoFCA/UNESP – Depto. Engenharia Rural Fone: (014)8213883; Fax: (014) 8213438 CEP 18603-970 - Botucatu-SPSérgio Marques JúniorDepto. Engenharia Rural - CCA/UFSC Rodovia Admar Gonzaga, Km 03 - Itacorubi CEP 88037-500 - Florianópolis-SC - Fone: (048) 2341013 e-mail: [email protected]   1 RESUMO   O objetivo do presente artigo é apresentar um estudo sobre a variabilidade espacial da condutividade hidráulica do solo estimada em meio saturado, apresentando alternativas para caracterização de seu valor em uma determinada porção do solo. A partir de uma série de dados, verificou-se a existência de não normalidade na distribuição, justificando a utilização de outras funções de densidade de probabilidade para o estudo. Nesta situação, a distribuição dos dados amostrados apresentou bom ajuste às funções de densidade gama incompleta e beta.   UNITERMOS: Condutividade hidráulica, variabilidade espacial do solo, funções de densidade de probabilidade.   MOURA, M.V.T., LEOPOLDO, P.R., MARQUES JÚNIOR, S.M.AN ALTERNATIVE TO CHARACTERIZE THE HYDRAULIC CONDUCTIVITY IN SATURATED SOIL   2 ABSTRACT   The aim of this paper was to study the spatial variability of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity, offering an strategy to characterize its value in a set of soil. It was observed the occurrence of non-normal distribution, justifying the use of probability density functions. In this study, measured data distribution showed good fitting with incomplete gamma and beta distribution.    KEYWORDS: Hydraulic conductivity, soil spatial variability, probability density functions.


Author(s):  
M. Liu ◽  
C. Cross ◽  
J. McGrail

In this paper, the effect is discussed of both pressure and temperature variations and their bearings on the SRA UHB safety factors. A variable peak distribution characterised by probabilities of distinct design and operating conditions is proposed and developed for performing OOS UHB. A routine has been developed recognizing that such a distribution is generally not available in the SRA software. Bearing in mind that friction is an important parameter in the UHB and OOS analysis but not duly considered in the literature to date, an integrated UHB model is introduced in the SRA to account for axial friction. The probabilistic methodology, its implementation and significance are shown through a series of SRA and parametric studies using Monte Carlo simulations. It is demonstrated that a more sensible UHB SRA can be achieved to minimise unnecessary margins, whereby the design parameters can be represented by appropriate probability density functions taking into consideration of maximum design, operating and surge excursion conditions, system availability and reliability levels. Some conclusions and recommendations are presented on the selection of SRA input parameters.


Author(s):  
Seyed Ahmad Lashteh-Neshaei ◽  
Mohammad Ali Lotfollahi-Yaghin ◽  
Morteza Biklaryan

Although there exist advanced models which predict to beach profile for natural beaches, the behavior of the beaches in front of seawalls still suffers from the lack of appropriate theoretical models and sufficient measured data. Following the results obtained from the measurements, a beach profile evolution model is developed, using the measured probability distribution of the near-bed horizontal velocities as input, to predict the short-term bed level changes in the vicinity of e partially reflective seawall. The present model introduces a new approach in which based on integrating the probability density functions of the near-bed horizontal velocities, the sediment displacements and consequently bed level changes are calculated in front of a partially reflective structure. The results obtained from the model and comparison with the experiments are promising and encouraging for further developments of the proposed model.


Author(s):  
Abraham Nitzan

This chapter reviews some subjects in mathematics and physics that are used in different contexts throughout this book. The selection of subjects and the level of their coverage reflect the author’s perception of what potential users of this text were exposed to in their earlier studies. Therefore, only brief overview is given of some subjects while somewhat more comprehensive discussion is given of others. In neither case can the coverage provided substitute for the actual learning of these subjects that are covered in detail by many textbooks. A random variable is an observable whose repeated determination yields a series of numerical values (“realizations” of the random variable) that vary from trial to trial in a way characteristic of the observable. The outcomes of tossing a coin or throwing a die are familiar examples of discrete random variables. The position of a dust particle in air and the lifetime of a light bulb are continuous random variables. Discrete random variables are characterized by probability distributions; Pn denotes the probability that a realization of the given random variable is n. Continuous random variables are associated with probability density functions P(x): P(x1)dx denotes the probability that the realization of the variable x will be in the interval x1 . . . x1+dx.


2014 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 127-137
Author(s):  
Tatsiana Hiarnovich

The paper explores the displace of Polish archives from the Soviet Union that was performed in 1920s according to the Riga Peace Treaty of 1921 and other international agreements. The aim of the research is to reconstruct the process of displace, based on the archival sources and literature. The object of the research is those documents that were preserved in the archives of Belarus and together with archives from other republics were displaced to Poland. The exploration leads to clarification of the selection of document fonds to be displaced, the actual process of movement and the explanation of the role that the archivists of Belarus performed in the history of cultural relationships between Poland and the Soviet Union. The articles of the Treaty of Riga had been formulated without taking into account the indivisibility of archive fonds that is one of the most important principles of restitution, which caused the failure of the treaty by the Soviet part.


2016 ◽  
Vol 52 ◽  
pp. 6-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. V. Gladiy ◽  
G. S. Kovalenko ◽  
S. V. Priyma ◽  
G. A. Holyosa ◽  
A. V. Tuchyk ◽  
...  

The main goal of dairy breeds selection should be improving breeding and productive qualities of animals under modern conditions. The majority of farms, using native breeds to produce milk, has created optimal conditions for keeping and feeding, selection and matching, growing of replacements etc. Further improvement of created native dairy breeds for economically useful traits occurs at total use of purebred Holstein bulls (semen) of foreign selection. In order to realistically assess milk productivity (milk yield, fat content in milk and fat yield) of Ukrainian Black-and-White and Red-and-White Dairy cows should be conducted a comparative analysis of Holstein cows under the same conditions of feeding and keeping. It was established that Ukrainian Red-and-White Dairy cows were characterized by the highest milk yields for 305 days of all lactations, taken into account, the among three investigated breeds. Their milk yield during the first lactation was 5933 kg of milk, during the second – 6393 kg, the third – 6391 kg and during higher lactation – 6650 kg. Ukrainian Black-and-White Dairy cows were second by milk yield (except for the second lactation), during the first lactation – 5932 kg of milk, the third – 6462 kg and higher – 6541 kg, and Holstein cows were third, during the first lactation – 5794 kg of milk, the second – 6381 kg, the third – 6335 kg and higher – 6469 kg. The fat content was almost the same and varied within 3.49-3.58% in milk of Ukrainian Red-and-White Dairy cattle, 3.50-3.60% in milk of Ukrainian Black-and-White Dairy cattle and 3.50-3.56% in Holsteins’ milk. The difference between the breeds was within 0.01-0.04%. All the investigated breeds had predominance in fat yield for three lactations over standards of these breeds: Ukrainian Red-and-White Dairy cows from 75.1 to 93.4 kg, Ukrainian Black-and-White Dairy cows – 75.1-89.0 kg respectively and Holstein cows – 41.9-60.2 kg. It was found different level of positive correlation between milk yield and fat yield in all the cases and high correlation (r = 0.604-0.921, P < 0.001) in five cases (41.7%) Negative correlation coefficients indicate that selection of animals to higher milk yield in the herd will decrease the second trait – fat content in milk. Positive and highly significant correlation between milk yield and fat yield indicates that selection of cows in the herd to higher milk yields will increase fat yield. It was revealed that bulls were among the factors impacted the milk productivity (milk yield, fat content, fat yield) of three investigated breeds. So, the force (η²x) of father’s impact on milk yield was15.4-47.9%, fat content – 22.0-43.4% and fat yield – 14.9-47.7% taking into account a lactation and a breed. The force of lines impact (η²x) was second; it was on milk yield 6.1-24.5%, fat content – 4.1-17.1 and fat yield – 5.8-23.5%. The force of breeds impact (η²x) was last; it was on milk yield 0.3-2.9%, fat content – 0.2-0.3% and fat yield – 0.6-2.7%. So, the comparative studies of milk productivity of Ukrainian Red-and-White and Black-and-White Dairy cattle with Holsteins indicate that under similar conditions of feeding and keeping, these native breeds can compete with Holstein cattle. The milk yield for 305 days of higher lactation was 6650 kg of milk in Ukrainian Red-and-White Dairy cows, 6541 kg in Ukrainian Black-and-White Dairy cows and 6469 kg in Holsteins. It was found the inverse correlation r = -0.025-0.316 between milk yield and fat content in milk in most cases. Selection and matching of animals in the herd should be carried out simultaneously on these traits. It was found positive repeatability of milk yields between the first and second, the third and higher lactations (rs = 0.036-0.741), indicating the reliability of forecasting increase in milk productivity during the next lactations in all herd. Bulls have the greatest impact (η²x) on milk productivity among the factors taken into account: milk yield – 15.4-47.9%, fat content in milk – 22.0-43.4% and fat yield – 14.9-47.7%.


Author(s):  
A.G. Filipova ◽  
A.V. Vysotskaya

The article presents the results of mathematical experiments with the system «Social potential of childhood in the Russian regions». In the structure of system divided into three subsystems – the «Reproduction of children in the region», «Children’s health» and «Education of children», for each defined its target factor (output parameter). The groups of infrastructure factors (education, health, culture and sport, transport), socio-economic, territorial-settlement, demographic and en-vironmental factors are designated as the factors that control the system (input parameters). The aim of the study is to build a model îf «Social potential of childhood in the Russian regions», as well as to conduct experiments to find the optimal ratio of the values of target and control factors. Three waves of experiments were conducted. The first wave is related to the analysis of the dynam-ics of indicators for 6 years. The second – with the selection of optimal values of control factors at fixed ideal values of target factors. The third wave allowed us to calculate the values of the target factors based on the selected optimal values of the control factors of the previous wave.


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