Function Based Risk Assessment and Failure Prediction for Unmanned Space Missions

Author(s):  
Scott J. Uder ◽  
Robert B. Stone ◽  
Irem Y. Tumer

A strong need has emerged in the aerospace industry for a well-founded and effective failure prevention technique or process that can be employed during the conceptual design of high-risk aerospace systems. In this paper, we describe a methodology to support risk assessment and failure prevention during the earliest stages of spacecraft design and mission planning. The three-step procedure, an extension of the Function-Failure Design method, utilizes detailed information from existing subsystems and systematically abstracts this information to a level that can be used during conceptual design. During this process, we address the issue concerning the level at which systems containing a combination of electrical and mechanical components should be functionally modeled. The complete method is described in general before being applied to two major unmanned spacecraft subsystems.

2012 ◽  
Vol 201-202 ◽  
pp. 477-482
Author(s):  
Xing Ling Huang ◽  
Xiang Bing Huang

In order to reduce the risks and uncertainties in conceptual design of submarine rescue vehicle (SRV), the paper proposed a risk-based conceptual design method, which consisted of three focus areas: problem setup, risk assessment, risk mitigation and decision support. Conventional risk assessment tools (e.g. probability risk assessment) were not suited for initial design because of lack of data, and a safety analysis model using fuzzy-logic approach employing fuzzy IF-THEN rules was introduced to carry out risk analysis in conceptual design. Subsequently, it was investigated that the main risky factors which influenced system risk in initial design were technology level of SRV, safety of SRV, task complexity, investment and repayment. And then a risk analysis model for submarine rescue vehicle was introduced. Lastly a case was studied to demonstrate the application of the model, and the results showed that it was an effective way to reduce the risks and uncertainties in conceptual design process.


Author(s):  
Katie Grantham Lough

Avoiding product recalls and failures is a must for companies to remain successful in the consumer product industry. Large numbers of failed products result in significant profit losses do to repair or replacement costs as well as untraceable costs of reputation damage among customer bases. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is key to preventing product failures. When risks are adequately identified and assessed the potential product failures can be mitigated and save lives as well as company profit. Risk mitigation is more effective the earlier it can be applied in the design process; therefore, the identification and assessment of risk through PRA techniques is most beneficial to the company when employed early in the design process. This paper presents new techniques for performing four common PRAs, preliminary hazards analysis (PHA), failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), fault tree analysis (FTA), and event tree analysis (ETA), during the conceptual phase of design, when products have yet to assume a physical form. The backbone for the application of these PRA techniques during the conceptual design phase is the Risk in Early Design (RED) Method. RED generates a listing of potential product risk based on historical failure occurrences. These risks are categorized by function, which enables this preliminary risk assessment to be performed during conceptual design. A risk analysis is performed for a bicycle that demonstrates the powerful failure prevention ability of RED and PRA during conceptual product design with a Consumer Product Safety Commission recall.


Aerospace ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 54
Author(s):  
Julia A. Cole ◽  
Lauren Rajauski ◽  
Andrew Loughran ◽  
Alexander Karpowicz ◽  
Stefanie Salinger

There is currently interest in the design of small electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft to alleviate ground traffic and congestion in major urban areas. To support progress in this area, a conceptual design method for single-main-rotor and lift-augmented compound electric helicopters has been developed. The design method was used to investigate the feasible design space for electric helicopters based on varying mission profiles and technology assumptions. Within the feasible design space, it was found that a crossover boundary exists as a function of cruise distance and hover time where the most efficient configuration changes from a single-main-rotor helicopter to a lift-augmented compound helicopter. In general, for longer cruise distances and shorter hover times, the lift-augmented compound helicopter is the more efficient configuration. An additional study was conducted to investigate the potential benefits of decoupling the main rotor from the tail rotor. This study showed that decoupling the main rotor and tail rotor has the potential to reduce the total mission energy required in all cases, allowing for increases in mission distances and hover times on the order of 5% for a given battery size.


2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xin Zhao ◽  
Zhou Zhou ◽  
Xiaoping Zhu ◽  
An Guo

This paper describes our work on a small, hand-launched, solar-powered unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) suitable for low temperatures and high altitudes, which has the perpetual flight potential for conservation missions for rare animals in the plateau area in winter. Firstly, the conceptual design method of a small, solar-powered UAV based on energy balance is proposed, which is suitable for flight in high-altitude and low-temperature area. The solar irradiance model, which can reflect the geographical location and time, was used. Based on the low-temperature discharge test of the battery, a battery weight model considering the influence of low temperature on the battery performance was proposed. Secondly, this paper introduces the detailed design of solar UAV for plateau area, including layout design, structure design, load, and avionics. To increase the proportion of solar cells covered, the ailerons were removed and a rudder was used to control both roll and yaw. Then, the dynamics model of an aileron-free layout UAV was developed, and the differences in maneuverability and stability of aileron-free UAV in plateau and plain areas were analyzed. The control law and trajectory tracking control law were designed for the aileron-free UAV. Finally, the flight test was conducted in Qiangtang, Tibet, at an altitude of 4500 m, China’s first solar-powered UAV to take off and land above 4500 m on the plateau in winter (−30 °C). The test data showed the success of the scheme, validated the conceptual design method and the success of the control system for aileron-free UAV, and analyzed the feasibility of perpetual flight carrying different loads according to the flight energy consumption data.


2015 ◽  
Vol 761 ◽  
pp. 63-67 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhd Ridzuan Mansor ◽  
S.M. Sapuan ◽  
A. Hambali ◽  
Edi Syam Zainudin ◽  
A.A. Nuraini

Spoilers are part of an automotive exterior bodywork system that acts to create additional down force for higher traction. In this paper, a new conceptual design of automotive spoiler component using kenaf polymer composites was developed using integrated TRIZ and morphology chart design method. The aim is to enable direct application of kenaf polymer composites to the spoiler design to achieve better environmental performance of the component while maintaining the required structural strength for safe and functional operation. The overall process involved two major stages, which are the idea generation and concept development. TRIZ method was applied in the idea generation stage where specific solution strategies for the design were created. In the concept development stage, the specific TRIZ solution strategies obtained were later refined into relevant alternative system elements using Morphology chart method. Finally, a new conceptual design of an automotive spoiler was developed using the combination of the identified system elements. The integrated TRIZ and morphology chart method were found to be new tools that can be used effectively in the concept design stage, especially in cases where direct material substitution is given the main focus for the new product development.


2009 ◽  
pp. 203-251
Author(s):  
Claudio Virno

- Cost overruns are common in large and complex projects, especially in high speed rail ones. Budgeting for cost escalation is a major issue in the planning phase of these projects. This paper describes lessons learned on high speed rail in Italy and focuses on problems such as initial poor design, tactical budgeting, inadequate cost estimation and risk assessment, etc. The paper discusses possible means to avoid major flaws in the initial conceptual design of mega-projects. There is a growing understanding of the need to focus on the front-end phase in order to achieve more successful and cost-effective projects.


Author(s):  
Colette S. Lees

Sharon Hartley is a UK-based director in the aerospace industry. Following the initial meeting and subsequent conversations regarding the use of emotional intelligence (EI) in leader development, the author was commissioned to design and deliver a bespoke EI Director Development program. Funded by her organization, Goodrich Corporation, later to become UTC Aerospace Systems, the program provided a supported six-month development strategy. Results included an increased ability to use EI and EI competencies for strategy development, and for influencing and driving cultural and organizational change.


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