Probability of Exceedance (POE) Methodology for Developing Integrity Programs Based on Pipeline Operator-Specific Technical and Economic Factors

2002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rafael G. Mora ◽  
Curtis Parker ◽  
Patrick H. Vieth ◽  
Burke Delanty
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Probabilistic Models ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Probability Of Exceedance ◽  
Integrity Verification ◽  
Inspection Data

With the availability of in-line inspection data, pipeline operators have additional information to develop the technical and economic justification for integrity verification programs (i.e. Fitness-for-Purpose) across an entire pipeline system. The Probability of Exceedance (POE) methodology described herein provides a defensible decision making process for addressing immediate corrosion threats identified through metal loss in-line inspection (ILI) and the use of sub-critical in-line inspection data to develop a long term integrity management program. In addition, this paper describes the process used to develop a Corrosion In-line Inspection POE-based Assessment for one of the systems operated by TransGas Limited (Saskatchewan, Canada). In 2001, TransGas Limited and CC Technologies undertook an integrity verification program of the Loomis to Herbert gas pipeline system to develop an appropriate scope and schedule maintenance activities along this pipeline system. This methodology customizes Probability of Exceedance (POE) results with a deterministic corrosion growth model to determine pipeline specific excavation/repair and re-inspection interval alternatives. Consequently, feature repairs can be scheduled based on severity, operational and financial conditions while maintaining safety as first priority. The merging of deterministic and probabilistic models identified the Loomis to Herbert pipeline system’s worst predicted metal loss depth and the lowest safety factor per each repair/reinspection interval alternative, which when combined with the cost/benefit analysis provided a simplified and safe decision-making process.

scholarly journals Background information for the agricultural technology management program (Atmp) Agro-expert

2012 ◽  
Vol 50 (No. 1) ◽  
pp. 342-40
Author(s):  
B. Havrland
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Technology Management ◽  
Economic Efficiency ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Agricultural Technology ◽  
Background Information ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Software Program ◽  
Production Conditions

Economic efficiency in farming is achieved as a result of manager’s skills and proper technologic equipment available on the farm suitable for carrying out husbandry operations. Applying skilled management to the whole business of farming is of an extraordinary importance, too. The manager should be equipped with more or less sophisticated software that would make his decision making process more professional and adequate to (generaly) production conditions. Such software (program) will allow proving his technological conception by economic calculations and proper tests. An Agricultural Technology Management Program AGRO-EXPERT has been conceived and is discussed in this paper. The authors analyze situation in appearance of such programs and conditions/information necessary for their correct (adequate) functions.

Hierarchical Bayesian Corrosion Growth Model Based on In-Line Inspection Data

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Al-Amin ◽  
W. Zhou ◽  
S. Zhang ◽  
S. Kariyawasam ◽  
H. Wang
Keyword(s):  
Growth Model ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Hierarchical Bayesian ◽  
Natural Gas Pipelines ◽  
Mcmc Simulation ◽  
Corrosion Defects ◽  
External Corrosion ◽  
Inspection Data

A hierarchical Bayesian growth model is presented in this paper to characterize and predict the growth of individual metal-loss corrosion defects on pipelines. The depth of the corrosion defects is assumed to be a power-law function of time characterized by two power-law coefficients and the corrosion initiation time, and the probabilistic characteristics of the parameters involved in the growth model are evaluated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation technique based on ILI data collected at different times for a given pipeline. The model accounts for the constant and non-constant biases and random scattering errors of the ILI data, as well as the potential correlation between the random scattering errors associated with different ILI tools. The model is validated by comparing the predicted depths with the field-measured depths of two sets of external corrosion defects identified on two real natural gas pipelines. The results suggest that the growth model is able to predict the growth of active corrosion defects with a reasonable degree of accuracy. The developed model can facilitate the pipeline corrosion management program.

scholarly journals THE CONSUMER DECISION OF CHANGES PURCHASING GLASSES IN OPTICAL NAOMY YEAR 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wahjoe Handini Dina ◽  
Ita Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Purchase Decision ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Optical Glasses

The purchase decision process is the process through which consumers when buying a product. It can be seen as a special form of cost-benefit analysis. This study is about knowing the decision of consumers in the purchase of glasses in the form of design, price, services, promotions and materials. The type of research is descriptive research conducted with the main objective to create a picture or a description of a situation objectively with the approach used in the study is Cross-sectional namely researchers put through observation or measurement variables at one time. Research in Optics Naomy shows that in the period July - September 2019 there were 32 respondents consisting of 19 (59.4%) of female respondents and 13 (40.6%) male respondents - men. Most aged 15-25 years as many as 26 people (81.3%), not married as many as 26 people (81.3%), student / student as many as 23 people (71.9%) and earn less than Rp 1 million, 00 as many as 26 people (81.3%). The majority of respondents in the optical Naomy declare eyeweare design is Good (62,5%), the price of the glasses in the optical Naomy is Less Suitable (65,6%), services in the optical Naomy is Good (65,6%), promotion in the optical Naomy is Good (62,5%), materials in optical glasses Naomy Good (56,2%). The decision making process of consumers in the purchase of glasses in the optical Weleri in this study prefer the design (22%) and services (21.8%), materials (21.2%), price (19.8%) and promotions (15.2 %). 

scholarly journals Evaluation of Investment Risks in CBA with Monte Carlo Method

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 245-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Korytárová ◽  
Barbora Pospíšilová
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Public Project ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Public ◽  
Whole Life Cycle

Investment decisions are at the core of any development strategy. Economic growth and welfare depend on productive capital, infrastructure, human capital, knowledge, total factor productivity and the quality of institutions. Decision-making process on the selection of suitable projects in the public sector is in some aspects more difficult than in the private sector. Evaluating projects on the basis of their financial profitability, where the basic parameter is the value of the potential profit, can be misleading in these cases. One of the basic objectives of the allocation of public resources is respecting of the 3E principle (Economy, Effectiveness, Efficiency) in their whole life cycle. The life cycle of the investment projects consists of four main phases. The first pre-investment phase is very important for decision-making process whether to accept or reject a public project for its realization. A well-designed feasibility study as well as cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in this phase are important assumptions for future success of the project. A future financial and economical CF which represent the fundamental basis for calculation of economic effectiveness indicators are formed and modelled in these documents. This paper deals with the possibility to calculate the financial and economic efficiency of the public investment projects more accurately by simulation methods used.

Development and Experiences of a Circumferential Stress Corrosion Crack Management Program

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neil Bates ◽  
Mark Brimacombe ◽  
Steven Polasik
Keyword(s):  
Stress Corrosion ◽  
Stress Corrosion Cracking ◽  
Crack Detection ◽  
Circumferential Stress ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Corrosion Cracking ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Average Growth ◽  
Proactive Management ◽  
Inspection Data

A pipeline operator set out to assess the risk of circumferential stress corrosion cracking and to develop a proactive management program, which included an in-line inspection and repair program. The first step was to screen the total pipeline inventory based on pipe properties and environmental factors to develop a susceptibility assessment. When a pipeline was found to be susceptible, an inspection plan was developed which often included ultrasonic circumferential crack detection in-line inspection and geotechnical analysis of slopes. Next, a methodology was developed to prioritize the anomalies for investigation based on the likelihood of failure using the provided in-line inspection sizing data, crack severity analysis, and correlation to potential causes of axial or bending stress, combined with a consequence assessment. Excavation programs were then developed to target the anomalies that posed the greatest threat to the pipeline system or environment. This paper summarizes the experiences to date from the operator’s circumferential stress corrosion cracking program and describes how the pipeline properties, geotechnical program, and/or in-line inspection programs were combined to determine the susceptibility of each pipeline and develop excavation programs. In-line inspection reported crack types and sizes compared to field inspection data will be summarized, as well as how the population and severity of circumferential stress corrosion cracking found compares to the susceptible slopes found in the geotechnical program completed. Finally, how the circumferential SCC time-average growth rate distributions were calculated and were used to set future geohazard inspections, in-line inspections, or repair dates will be discussed.

Optimizing the Management of Excavation and Repair Data From Inline Inspection Programs

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miaad Safari ◽  
David Shaw
Keyword(s):  
Condition Monitoring ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Data Uncertainty ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
System Integrity ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
External Corrosion ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
Superior Approach

Abstract As integrity programs mature over the life of a pipeline, an increasing number of data points are collected from second, third, or further condition monitoring cycles. Types of data include Inline Inspection (ILI) or External Corrosion Direct Assessment (ECDA) inspection data, validation or remediation dig information, and records of various repairs that have been completed on the pipeline system. The diversity and massive quantity of this gathered data proposes a challenge to pipeline operators in managing and maintaining these data sets and records. The management of integrity data is a key element to a pipeline system Integrity Management Program (IMP) as per the CSA Z662[1]. One of the most critical integrity datasets is the repair information. Incorrect repair assignments on a pipeline can lead to duplicate unnecessary excavations in the best scenario and a pipeline failure in the worst scenario. Operators rely on various approaches to manage and assign repair data to ILIs such as historical records reviews, ILI-based repair assignments, or chainage-based repair assignments. However, these methods have significant gaps in efficiency and/or accuracy. Failure to adequately manage excavation and repair data can lead to increased costs due to repeated excavation of an anomaly, an increase in resources required to match historical information with new data, uncertainty in the effectiveness of previous repairs, and the possibility of incorrect assignment of repairs to unrepaired features. This paper describes the approach adopted by Enbridge Gas to track and maintain repairs, as a part of the Pipeline Risk and Integrity Management (PRIM) platform. This approach was designed to create a robust excavation and repair management framework, providing a robust system of data gathering and automation, while ensuring sufficient oversight by Integrity Engineers. Using this system, repairs are assigned to each feature in an excavation, not only to a certain chainage along the pipeline. Subsequently, when a new ILI results report is received, a process of “Repair Matching” is completed to assign preexisting repairs and assessments to the newly reported features at a feature level. This process is partially automated, whereby pre-determined box-to-box features matched between ILIs can auto-populate repairs for many of the repaired features. The proposed excavation management system would provide operators a superior approach to managing their repair history and projecting historical repairs and assessments onto new ILI reports, prior to assessing the ILI and issuing further digs on the pipeline. This optimized method has many advantages over the conventional repair management methods used in the industry. This method is best suited for operators that are embarking on their second or third condition monitoring cycle, with a moderate number of historical repairs.

Post Assessment of Ultrasonic Crack Detection Inline Inspection Data

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa Barkdull ◽  
Herbert Willems
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Crack Detection ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Effective Area ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Advanced Analysis ◽  
Inspection Data ◽  
Post Assessment

The information supplied from inline inspection data is often used by pipeline operators to make mitigation and/or remediation decisions based on integrity management program requirements. It is common practice to apply industry accepted remaining strength pressure calculations (i.e. B31G, 0.85 dl, effective area) to the data analysis results from an inline inspection survey used for the detection and characterization of metal loss. Similar assessments of data analysis results from an ultrasonic crack detection survey require expert knowledge in the field of fracture mechanics and, just as importantly, require knowledge to understand the limitations of shear wave ultrasonic technology as applied to an inline inspection tool. Traditionally, crack-like and crack-field features have been classified with a maximum depth distributed over the entire length of the feature; crack-field features also have width reported. In an effort to provide further prioritization, techniques such as “longest length” or “interlinked length” [1] have been employed. More recently, an effort has been made to provide a depth profile of the crack-like or crack-field feature using the ultrasonic crack detection data analysis results. This presentation will discuss the advantages of post assessment of ultrasonic crack detection data analysis results to aid in the evaluation of pipeline integrity and discuss the limitations of advanced analysis techniques. Additionally, the potential for new inline inspection ultrasonic technologies which lend themselves to more accurate data analysis techniques will be reviewed.

scholarly journals A NEW SIMPLIFIED DECISION MAKING SYSTEM FOR SMALL PROJECTS

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 480-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Secărea Tudorel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Limited Budget ◽  
Decision Making System ◽  
The Cost ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Bare Minimum

Making decisions on funding or not funding projects is the most difficult process in management, especially for the state services that have a limited budget. The aim of this study is to establish a new simplified system for evaluating small projects based on translating all values into economic terms. The new system tries to simplify the Cost-Benefit Analysis (on which it is based) to the bare minimum and still keep a high degree of relevance to the decision-making process. The conclusions were somewhat remarkable, mostly because the system gives accurate and relevant data for comparing projects despite its simplicity. The other big benefit of this system is its simple nature and ease of understanding even for people with no economic studies.The applied part of this paper involves an analysis of real projects in Brasov County – Romania and the results of applying Cost-Benefit Analysis and the new method for evaluating projects.The paper concludes proposing a new, modern and simple system for improving decision making on small projects.

A Midstream Pipeline Operator’s Perspective on the Implementation of API 1183

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremiah Konell ◽  
Brian Dedeke ◽  
Chris Hurst ◽  
Shanshan Wu ◽  
Joseph Bratton
Keyword(s):  
Selection Process ◽  
Management Program ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Metal Loss ◽  
Pipeline System ◽  
Stress Risers ◽  
Integrity Management ◽  
Primary Focus ◽  
Condition Assessments ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In preparation for the upcoming (currently in draft form) Recommended Practice (RP) on Dent Assessment and Management (API 1183) [1], Explorer Pipeline Company, Inc. (Explorer) has performed an internal procedural review to determine how to effectively implement the methodologies into their Integrity Management Program (IMP). Explorer’s pipeline system transports hazardous liquids and is comprised of over 1,800 miles of pipeline ranging in diameter from 3 to 28 inches. The majority of the system was installed in the 1970s, but parts of the system were also installed as early as the 1940s. The primary focus of this review and implementation into the IMP is in regard to performing and responding to in-line inspection (ILI) based integrity assessments. Prior to the development of API 1183, dent assessment and management consisted of following a set of prescriptive condition assessments outlined in the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Title 49, Part 195.452. In order to do this, pipeline operators required basic information, such as dent depth, orientation, and interaction with potential stress risers such as metal loss, cracks, gouges, welds, etc. However, in order to fully implement API 1183, additional parameters are needed to define the dent shape, restraint condition, defect interaction, and pipeline operating conditions. Many new and necessary parameters were identified throughout the IMP, from the very initial pre-assessment stage (new ILI vendor requirements as part of the tool/vendor selection process) all the way to defining an appropriate reassessment interval (new process of analyzing dent fatigue life). This paper summarizes the parameters of API 1183 that were not part of Explorer’s current IMP. The parameters are identified, and comments are provided to rank the level of necessity from “must have” to “beneficial” (e.g. can sound and conservative assumptions be made when a parameter is not available). Comments are also provided to explain the impact of applying assumptions in place of parameters. The table of identified parameters should provide a useful tool for other pipeline operators who are considering implementing API 1183 as part of their overall IMP.

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