scholarly journals Evaluation of Investment Risks in CBA with Monte Carlo Method

2015 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 245-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Korytárová ◽  
Barbora Pospíšilová
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Public Project ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
The Public ◽  
Whole Life Cycle

Investment decisions are at the core of any development strategy. Economic growth and welfare depend on productive capital, infrastructure, human capital, knowledge, total factor productivity and the quality of institutions. Decision-making process on the selection of suitable projects in the public sector is in some aspects more difficult than in the private sector. Evaluating projects on the basis of their financial profitability, where the basic parameter is the value of the potential profit, can be misleading in these cases. One of the basic objectives of the allocation of public resources is respecting of the 3E principle (Economy, Effectiveness, Efficiency) in their whole life cycle. The life cycle of the investment projects consists of four main phases. The first pre-investment phase is very important for decision-making process whether to accept or reject a public project for its realization. A well-designed feasibility study as well as cost-benefit analysis (CBA) in this phase are important assumptions for future success of the project. A future financial and economical CF which represent the fundamental basis for calculation of economic effectiveness indicators are formed and modelled in these documents. This paper deals with the possibility to calculate the financial and economic efficiency of the public investment projects more accurately by simulation methods used.

scholarly journals FEATURES OF MODERN STAGES OF ANALYSIS OF BENEFITS AND COSTS

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tetyana Kibuk
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Public Project ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Benefits And Costs

The article is devoted to the study of one of the most relevant and widely used tools of the modern decision-making process at the national and international levels – cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The article defines the purpose of the cost-benefit analysis. Three approaches to the selection of CBA stages are analyzed, among which there are three, from five to seven and ten stages. Their advantages and disadvantages are highlighted. The modern stages of the analysis of benefits and costs are systematized, namely: determining the level of analysis and its purpose; identification of alternatives to the public project; identification of the list of benefits and costs of the project; valuation in monetary terms of certain benefits and costs; establishing project evaluation criteria; discounting benefits and costs to obtain the present value of the project; determination of the net present value of social project options; analysis of the sensitivity of the social project; analysis of the distribution of existing benefits from the public project and selection one project among several alternative ones for implementation. The figures of the choice of existing alternatives of the public project are analyzed. Existing types of project costs are identified, including direct, indirect, tangible, intangible, opportunity and real costs. The list of benefits investigated by the analysis is determined, which include: monetary, non-monetary and intangible benefits. The difference between monetary valuation of project benefits and costs at shadow and market prices is investigated. The most common selection criteria in the modern project decision-making process are analyzed. The peculiarities of the formation of the social discount rate are highlighted. The features of sensitivity analysis and the purpose for its implementation are determined. Existing types of uncertainty and ways to overcome them are summarized, namely knowledge uncertainty, policy uncertainty and future uncertainty. The specifics of decision making in the cost-benefit analysis are studied. Further directions of research of problematic questions of the cost-benefit analysis in modern economy are identified.

Public Involvement in the Design of Public Projects

2019 ◽  
Vol 44 (4) ◽  
pp. 73-79
Author(s):  
Emad S. Mushtaha ◽  
Omar Hassan Omar ◽  
Dua S. Barakat ◽  
Hessa Al-Jarwan ◽  
Dima Abdulrahman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Design Process ◽  
Public Involvement ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Public Project ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Projects ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Building Program

The involvement of the public in the decision-making process is essential, especially in the early stages of a design process. This study aims to achieve the development of an architectural program for a memorial public project, using the outcomes of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) based on public opinion. It employs a novel approach that sharply focuses on public involvement in the design process, using a quantitative methodology for the development of a suitable building program and selecting a memorial form that meets the public's needs in a practical way. The study drew on data from various memorial projects to identify possible spaces and their selection criteria. A written questionnaire was distributed to a sample of 105 members of the public, to narrow down the number of spaces according to public response. Then, a hearing (spoken) questionnaire was conducted on a sample of 20 to produce the program for development by generating the most strongly preferred form of memorial. The results contradicted the existing norm for a memorial as a sculpture; it was revealed that most of the public preferred memorial landscapes to buildings and great structures. The study concluded that AHP could be used to further involve the relevant stakeholders in the decision-making process of the design of a public project.

scholarly journals Multi-Criteria, Cost-Benefit, and Life-Cycle Analyses for Decision-Making to Support Responsible, Sustainable, and Alternative Tourism

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 1038
Author(s):  
Fabio Zagonari
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Life Cycle Assessment ◽  
Life Cycle ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Cultural Dynamics ◽  
Dynamic Approach ◽  
Dynamic Framework ◽  
Alternative Tourism ◽  
Management Recommendations

This paper combines the most popular tourism typologies or goals (i.e., RT, responsible tourism, to represent impact minimisation; ST, sustainable tourism, to represent welfare maximisation; AT, alternative tourism, to represent continuity maximisation) and decision-making methodologies (i.e., MCA, multi-criteria analysis; CBA, cost-benefit analysis; WLCA, weighted life-cycle assessment; MLCA, monetary life-cycle assessment) in a single dynamic framework to operationally match the former with the latter. Normative insights show that MCA and WLCA are most suitable for RT and AT, respectively, whereas CBA and MLCA are most suitable for ST. Management recommendations (i.e., if a wrong static instead of a right dynamic approach must be adopted due to a lack of data, once chosen a tourism typology or goal, ST is the best in terms of level, correlation and likelihood of errors) are provided, and policy recommendations (i.e., if a right dynamic approach is adopted, in choosing among tourism typologies or goals, AT is the best in terms of precaution, ST is the best in terms of correlation, and RT is the best in terms of risk of investments) are suggested for a case study characterized by negative environmental and cultural dynamics. Positive insights show that two and many papers have applied WLCA and MLCA, respectively, to RT, but they did not account for cultural features; many papers have applied CBA to ST, but only one paper applied MLCA; few and no papers have applied MCA and WLCA, respectively, to AT.

scholarly journals THE CONSUMER DECISION OF CHANGES PURCHASING GLASSES IN OPTICAL NAOMY YEAR 2019

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wahjoe Handini Dina ◽  
Ita Puji Lestari
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Process ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Purchase Decision ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Optical Glasses

The purchase decision process is the process through which consumers when buying a product. It can be seen as a special form of cost-benefit analysis. This study is about knowing the decision of consumers in the purchase of glasses in the form of design, price, services, promotions and materials. The type of research is descriptive research conducted with the main objective to create a picture or a description of a situation objectively with the approach used in the study is Cross-sectional namely researchers put through observation or measurement variables at one time. Research in Optics Naomy shows that in the period July - September 2019 there were 32 respondents consisting of 19 (59.4%) of female respondents and 13 (40.6%) male respondents - men. Most aged 15-25 years as many as 26 people (81.3%), not married as many as 26 people (81.3%), student / student as many as 23 people (71.9%) and earn less than Rp 1 million, 00 as many as 26 people (81.3%). The majority of respondents in the optical Naomy declare eyeweare design is Good (62,5%), the price of the glasses in the optical Naomy is Less Suitable (65,6%), services in the optical Naomy is Good (65,6%), promotion in the optical Naomy is Good (62,5%), materials in optical glasses Naomy Good (56,2%). The decision making process of consumers in the purchase of glasses in the optical Weleri in this study prefer the design (22%) and services (21.8%), materials (21.2%), price (19.8%) and promotions (15.2 %). 

scholarly journals On the Retrofit of Existing Buildings with Aerogel Panels: Energy, Environmental and Economic issues

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1276
Author(s):  
Paola Marrone ◽  
Francesco Asdrubali ◽  
Daniela Venanzi ◽  
Federico Orsini ◽  
Luca Evangelisti ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Energy Savings ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Tax Incentive ◽  
Lump Sum ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Whole Life Cycle

Among the super insulating materials, aerogel has interesting properties: very low thermal conductivity and density, resistance to high temperatures and transparency. It is a rather expensive material, but incentives in the field can improve its economic attractiveness. Starting from this, the thermal behavior of a test building entirely insulated with aerogel panels was investigated through an extended experimental campaign. A dynamic simulation model of a case study building was generated to better comprehend the energy savings obtained through aerogel in terms of energy demand over a whole year. The investigation was completed by computing the carbon and energy payback times of various retrofit strategies through a life cycle assessment approach, as well as by a cost-benefit analysis through a probabilistic financial framework. Compared to conventional insulation materials, aerogel is characterized by a higher energy and carbon payback time, but it guarantees better environmental performance in the whole life cycle. From an economic-financial perspective, the aerogel retrofit is the best in the current tax incentive scenario. However, due to its higher lump-sum investment, aerogel’s net present value is very sensitive to tax deductions, and it is riskier than the best comparable materials in less favorable tax scenarios.

scholarly journals A NEW SIMPLIFIED DECISION MAKING SYSTEM FOR SMALL PROJECTS

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 ◽  
pp. 480-485 ◽  
Author(s):  
Secărea Tudorel
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Limited Budget ◽  
Decision Making System ◽  
The Cost ◽  
High Degree ◽  
Bare Minimum

Making decisions on funding or not funding projects is the most difficult process in management, especially for the state services that have a limited budget. The aim of this study is to establish a new simplified system for evaluating small projects based on translating all values into economic terms. The new system tries to simplify the Cost-Benefit Analysis (on which it is based) to the bare minimum and still keep a high degree of relevance to the decision-making process. The conclusions were somewhat remarkable, mostly because the system gives accurate and relevant data for comparing projects despite its simplicity. The other big benefit of this system is its simple nature and ease of understanding even for people with no economic studies.The applied part of this paper involves an analysis of real projects in Brasov County – Romania and the results of applying Cost-Benefit Analysis and the new method for evaluating projects.The paper concludes proposing a new, modern and simple system for improving decision making on small projects.

Revisiting the role of process incentives as a determinant of university students’ protest

2012 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-253
Author(s):  
Elias Dinas ◽  
Kostas Gemenis
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Collective Action ◽  
Rational Choice ◽  
Rational Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Theory ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
The Public

Drawing on the original data collected during a period of university student protest in Greece, we explore whether the expected gains from the act of protesting itself influence an individual's decision to participate in collective action. More particularly, we investigate the extent to which the process incentives qualify the weight individuals attach to the primary elements of the original cost–benefit equation of rational choice theory as well as other considerations in their decision-making process. Our findings point out that the magnitude of the effect of the process incentives is very strong and its inclusion in a rational choice model improves our understanding of students’ participation in protest activities. Turning to indirect effects, we show that process incentives behave as a first stage precondition for the students’ decision to participate in collective action. In the absence of perceived benefits associated with the process of protesting, the importance of attaining the public good becomes much less important in their decision-making process.

APPLICATION OF NEW DECISION MAKING MODEL BASED ON MODIFIED COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS — A CASE STUDY: BELGRADE TRAMWAY TRANSIT

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (06) ◽  
pp. 1250034 ◽  
Author(s):  
VLADIMIR M. POPOVIC ◽  
BRANKO M. VASIC ◽  
TATJANA M. LAZOVIC ◽  
ALEKSANDAR M. GRBOVIC
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Life Cycle Cost ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Rolling Stock ◽  
Important Place ◽  
The Public ◽  
Decision Making Model

Tramway transit has an important place within the public transportation system of Belgrade. However, due to the very unfavorable age structure, the bad condition of tramway tracks and infrastructure, as well as the maintenance system that require significant advancement, Belgrade tramways are in very bad repair, so the transport requirements are not properly met. The principal task of the analysis presented in this paper is to recognize and estimate the justifiability of investment into various solutions for revitalization of Belgrade tramway rolling stock. We have chosen a somewhat different from usual approach to decision making, that is, applied a combination of cost-benefit, life-cycle cost and multi-criteria analysis.

The gentle tyranny of cost–benefit analysis in transport appraisal

2019 ◽  
pp. 131-152
Author(s):  
Robin Hickman
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Planning Process ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Benefit Analysis ◽  
Transport Planning ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Economic Criteria

This chapter considers the application of cost-benefit analysis in the UK transport planning process, asking whether a reliance on narrow economic criteria, and a centralised decision-making process, helps us to progress sufficiently against wide-ranging sustainability goals. A case study of the proposed Merseytram is examined, a project that remains unimplemented from the early 2000s.

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