Statistical Method to Requalify Steel Grades During Conversion of Tankers to FPSO

Author(s):  
Philippe Cambos ◽  
Guy Parmentier

During ship life, operating conditions may change, tanker may be converted into FPSO, and flag requirements may be modified. Generally these modifications have few impacts on existing structures; flag requirements only rarely are to be applied retroactively. Nevertheless in some cases modifications of operating condition may induce considerable consequences, making in the worst cases impossible any reengineering. For example converting a common tanker, built with plain steel of grade A into an Offshore Floating Unit able operating in cold region, may require a grade change corresponding to a grade B. It is obviously meaningless to replace all material just because material certificates. Steels used by shipyards have to fulfill Classification society’s requirements dealing with mechanical strength; generally shipbuilding corresponds to a small part of steelmaker’s production. For this reason steelmakers are reluctant to produce steels with mechanical properties corresponding exactly to the minima required. They generally deliver steels already in stock, with higher mechanical characteristics than required. In this case it can be taken advantage of this common practice. In order to demonstrate that the material fulfill the requirements of grade B it has been decided to adopt a statistic approach. At this stage there are two main issues, the first one is that it is needed to provide evidences that the actual material Charpy V characteristics fulfill the requirements of grade B; the second one is to provide these evidences with a minimum testing. To assess this assumption a random check has been carried out. Different probabilistic model have been tested in order to check common approaches and probabilistic model based on physical considerations. In the paper the main assumptions for estimating the minimum Charpy value main assumption in the probabilistic models are recalled, the behavior of empirical sample is examined, the parameters of probability laws fitting the empirical distribution and definitely as accuracy of probability law parameters determination is not perfect with a finite number of specimens the uncertainty in the determination of parameters is taken into account with confidence limits. According to the selected probabilistic model the minimum value corresponds to an acceptable probability of failure, taking into account the target confidence level, or is independent of any acceptable probability of failure and is defined with the same confidence level. At the end it is concluded that a random check with a data treatment assuming a random distribution of Charpy V test results distributed according to a Weibull probability law of the minimum allows providing evidences that with a sufficient confidence level the steel used for the considered structure fulfill the requirements of the new operating conditions.


2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (6) ◽  
pp. 602
Author(s):  
Heping Liu ◽  
Jianjun Zhang ◽  
Hongbiao Tao ◽  
Hui Zhang

In this article, based on the actual monitored temperature data from mold copper plate with a dense thermocouple layout and the measured magnetic flux density values in a CSP thin-slab mold, the local heat flux and thin-slab solidification features in the funnel-type mold with electromagnetic braking are analyzed. The differences of local heat flux, fluid flow and solidified shell growth features between two steel grades of Q235B with carbon content of 0.19%C and DC01 of 0.03%C under varying operation conditions are discussed. The results show the maximum transverse local heat flux is near the meniscus region of over 0.3 m away from the center of the wide face, which corresponds to the upper flow circulation and the large turbulent kinetic energy in a CSP funnel-type mold. The increased slab width and low casting speed can reduce the fluctuation of the transverse local heat flux near the meniscus. There is a decreased transverse local heat flux in the center of the wide face after the solidified shell is pulled through the transition zone from the funnel-curve to the parallel-cure zone. In order to achieve similar metallurgical effects, the braking strength should increase with the increase of casting speed and slab width. Using the strong EMBr field in a lower casting speed might reverse the desired effects. There exist some differences of solidified shell thinning features for different steel grades in the range of the funnel opening region under the measured operating conditions, which may affect the optimization of the casting process in a CSP caster.



2006 ◽  
Vol 110 ◽  
pp. 221-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ouk Sub Lee ◽  
Dong Hyeok Kim ◽  
Seon Soon Choi

The reliability estimation of buried pipeline with corrosion defects is presented. The reliability of corroded pipeline has been estimated by using a theory of probability of failure. And the reliability has been analyzed in accordance with a target safety level. The probability of failure is calculated using the FORM (first order reliability method). The changes in probability of failure corresponding to three corrosion models and eight failure pressure models are systematically investigated in detail. It is highly suggested that the plant designer should select appropriate operating conditions and design parameters and analyze the reliability of buried pipeline with corrosion defects according to the probability of failure and a required target safety level. The normalized margin is defined and estimated accordingly. Furthermore, the normalized margin is used to predict the failure probability using the fitting lines between failure probability and normalized margin.



2007 ◽  
Vol 97 (3) ◽  
pp. 2083-2093 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul W. German ◽  
Howard L. Fields

Animals return to rewarded locations. An example of this is conditioned place preference (CPP), which is widely used in studies of drug reward. Although CPP is expressed as increased time spent in a previously rewarded location, the behavioral strategy underlying this change is unknown. We continuously monitored rats ( n = 22) in a three-room in-line configuration, before and after morphine conditioning in one end room. Although sequential room visit durations were variable, their probability distribution was exponential, indicating that the processes controlling visit durations can be modeled by instantaneous room exit probabilities. Further analysis of room transitions and computer simulations of probabilistic models revealed that the exploratory bias toward the morphine room is best explained by an increase in the probability of a subset of rapid, direct transitions from the saline- to the morphine-paired room by the central room. This finding sharply delineates and constrains possible neural mechanisms for a class of self-initiated, goal-directed behaviors toward previously rewarded locations.



1999 ◽  
Vol 123 (1) ◽  
pp. 141-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ehsan Mesbahi

Abstract An intelligent sensor validation and on-line fault diagnosis technique for a 6 cylinder turbocharged diesel engine is proposed and studied. A single auto-associative 3-layer Artificial Neural Network (ANN), is trained to examine the accuracy of the measured data and allocate a confidence level to each signal. The same ANN is used to recover the missing or faulty data with a close approximation. For on-line fault detection a feed-forward ANN is trained to classify and consequently recognize faulty and healthy behavior of the engine for a wide range of operating conditions. The proposed technique is also equipped with an on-line learning mechanism, which is activated when the confidence level in predicted fault is poor. It is hoped that a feasible, practical, and reliable sensor reading, as well as highly accurate fault diagnosis system, would be achieved.



2019 ◽  
Vol 294 ◽  
pp. 01013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mykola Karnaukh ◽  
Dmitriy Muzylyov ◽  
Natalya Shramenko

The paper discusses an actual scientific and practical problem of expanding the fuel base of the transport means by using biodiesel fuel in the form of ethyl esters made of rapeseed, sunflower and soybean oils. The choice of the optimal blend composition of diesel and biodiesel in appropriate operating conditions helps to provide the energy independence of transport companies on mineral hydrocarbons, reduce the anthropogenic influence on the environment and improve the environmental safety of transport. The research offers a new technological model for the production of biodiesel, which improves the quality and reduces the cost of biodiesel, reduces its negative impact on the elements of the vehicle fuel system. Reliability of fuel system elements is calculated. Mathematical expressions were obtained to determine the probability of failure-free operation of the fuel system and the probability of failure of its elements during operation at various fuel mixes. The assessment of the economic efficiency of the use of biodiesel as a fuel for vehicles was made.



2011 ◽  
Vol 261-263 ◽  
pp. 380-384
Author(s):  
Hai Tao Wang ◽  
Jin Qing Jia

The evaluation of the correct stability factor of tunnel is a critical element in the various design and construction phases of a tunnel excavated in difficult geotechnical conditions. An innovative, and well-applied, procedure for optimize the construction phase management is described in this article. The starting point of this procedure involves the verification of the results of numerical methods obtained from referenced analytical methods. In the first step of the procedure the results obtained through the analytical method are verified by means of a numerical method in order to evaluate the practical consequences in terms of development of deformations and plastic zone. In this manner, the assumed design risk is evaluated for the different methods and the solution that gives the best correspondence with numerical simulation is selected. Finally, residual uncertainties and parametric variations are incorporated in the analysis and Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the statistical distribution of the face-stabilizing pressure and the design value is selected on the basis of an acceptable probability of failure.



2003 ◽  
Vol 125 (4) ◽  
pp. 264-271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E. Melchers

Reliability theory for the assessment of existing structures for remaining safe life must consider the probabilistic deterioration of structural strength as well as multiple applied loadings. This requires good-quality models of deterioration processes. Models for corrosion, which have been applied in the literature for marine applications, are reviewed. It is shown that these usually are statistical only, using data pooled from many sources. They also use little or no theoretical insight. As a result, they provide poor-quality mean-value information and very high statistical uncertainties. The conclusion is that better modeling is required and that this involves much better understanding of the factors influencing marine corrosion. These factors are reviewed briefly, with particular emphasis on marine immersion corrosion of mild steel.



Author(s):  
Hyunkyoo Cho ◽  
K. K. Choi ◽  
David Lamb

An accurate input probabilistic model is necessary to obtain a trustworthy result in the reliability analysis and the reliability-based design optimization (RBDO). However, the accurate input probabilistic model is not always available. Very often only insufficient input data are available in practical engineering problems. When only the limited input data are provided, uncertainty is induced in the input probabilistic model and this uncertainty propagates to the reliability output which is defined as the probability of failure. Then, the confidence level of the reliability output will decrease. To resolve this problem, the reliability output is considered to have a probability distribution in this paper. The probability of the reliability output is obtained as a combination of consecutive conditional probabilities of input distribution type and parameters using Bayesian approach. The conditional probabilities that are obtained under certain assumptions and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method is used to calculate the probability of the reliability output. Using the probability of the reliability output as constraint, a confidence-based RBDO (C-RBDO) problem is formulated. In the new probabilistic constraint of the C-RBDO formulation, two threshold values of the target reliability output and the target confidence level are used. For effective C-RBDO process, the design sensitivity of the new probabilistic constraint is derived. The C-RBDO is performed for a mathematical problem with different numbers of input data and the result shows that C-RBDO optimum designs incorporate appropriate conservativeness according to the given input data.





Author(s):  
James E. McLaughlin

A qualitative risk-based assessment procedure was developed to determine the relative probability of failure for high temperature hydrogen attack (HTHA) of C-1/2Mo steel. It is well documented that C-1/2Mo possesses a variable resistance to HTHA. Over the years, the Nelson curve limits, as published in API RP 941, Steels for Hydrogen Service at Elevated Temperatures and Pressures in Petroleum Refineries and Petrochemical Plants, have been significantly reduced since originally published. This has created a need for an assessment procedure to evaluate C-1/2 Mo equipment that was designed many years ago when the Nelson curve was at much higher operating conditions than today. This assessment procedure is based on the current ExxonMobil assignment of C-1/2Mo resistance to HTHA on the Nelson curve and the relative dependence of HTHA on temperature, hydrogen partial pressure and time. We use the Pv relationship that appears in literature to define the relative dependence of HTHA on temperature, hydrogen partial pressure and time. This qualitative assignment of probability levels for HTHA was validated against actual HTHA failures of C-1/2Mo in high temperature hydrogen service that have been reported to the API and other internal Company incidents not reported to API. This assessment procedure is used to qualitatively define the probability of failure consistent with the probability levels defined in the ExxonMobil risk matrix which is used to manage all risk based decisions in the Corporation.



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