Uncertainty Characterization of the TWC_Fail Through-Wall Circumferential Crack Stability Module for xLPR
The US NRC/EPRI xLPR (eXtremely Low Probability of Rupture) probabilistic pipe fracture analysis program uses deterministic modules as the foundation for the calculation of the probability of pipe leak or rupture as a consequence of active degradation mechanisms, vibration or seismic loading. The circumferential through-wall crack stability module, TWC_Fail, evaluates through-wall circumferential crack stability based on the minimum crack size from the Net-Section Collapse or an EPFM J-estimation scheme analysis. Beyond the uncertainty of xLPR data inputs, each module has an uncertainty. This paper documents the module uncertainty for TWC_Fail. Using 32 pipe fracture experiments, including: base metal, similar metal weld, and dissimilar metal weld experiments; bend only and pressure and bend loading; pipe diameters from 2-inch nominal diameter to 42-inch diameter, cracks that range from short to long, the uncertainty of the TWC_Fail methodology is characterized. Results show that TWC_Fail predictions are sensitive to the choice of J-R curve input (J-D or J-M from C(T) specimen tests) and the fit of the stress-strain data. Module uncertainty is characterized in terms mean fit and standard deviation between predictions and experimental values.