scholarly journals Quantifying the influence of short-term emission reductions on climate

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. eabf7133
Author(s):  
J. C. Fyfe ◽  
V. V. Kharin ◽  
N. Swart ◽  
G. M. Flato ◽  
M. Sigmond ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Potential Effect ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Emission Reductions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Aerosol Emissions ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic has resulted in a marked slowdown in greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. Although the resulting emission reductions will continue to evolve, this will presumably be temporary. Here, we provide estimates of the potential effect of such short-term emission reductions on global and regional temperature and precipitation by analyzing the response of an Earth System Model to a range of idealized near-term emission pathways not considered in available model intercomparison projects. These estimates reveal the modest impact that temporary emission reductions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will have on global and regional climate. Our simulations suggest that the impact of carbon dioxide and aerosol emission reductions is actually a temporary enhancement in warming rate. However, our results demonstrate that even large emission reductions applied for a short duration have only a small and likely undetectable impact.

The local and remote atmospheric impacts of Africa’s 21st century aerosol emission trajectory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Wells ◽  
Apostolos Voulgarakis
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Emission Region ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Remote Locations ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Radiation Fluxes ◽  
The World ◽  
Aerosol Emissions ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Lower Biomass

<p>Aerosols are a major climate forcer, but their historical effect has the largest uncertainty of any forcing; their mechanisms and impacts are not well understood. Due to their short lifetime, aerosols have large impacts near their emission region, but they also have effects on the climate in remote locations. In recent years, studies have investigated the influences of regional aerosols on global and regional climate, and the mechanisms that lead to remote responses to their inhomogeneous forcing. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios (SSPs), transient future experiments were performed in UKESM1, testing the effect of African emissions following the SSP3-RCP7.0 scenario as the rest of the world follows SSP1-RCP1.9, relative to a global SSP1-RCP1.9 control. SSP3 sees higher direct anthropogenic aerosol emissions, but lower biomass burning emissions, over Africa. Experiments were performed changing each of these sets of emissions, and both. A further set of experiments additionally accounted for changing future CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, to investigate the impact of CO<sub>2</sub> on the responses to aerosol perturbations. Impacts on radiation fluxes, temperature, circulation and precipitation are investigated, both over the emission region (Africa), where microphysical effects dominate, and remotely, where dynamical influences become more relevant. </p>

scholarly journals The Influence of Remote Aerosol Forcing from Industrialized Economies on the Future Evolution of East and West African Rainfall

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (23) ◽  
pp. 8335-8354 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claire Scannell ◽  
Ben B. B. Booth ◽  
Nick J. Dunstone ◽  
David P. Rowell ◽  
Dan J. Bernie ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
African Rainfall ◽  
Aerosol Emission ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Aerosol Emissions ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Past changes in global industrial aerosol emissions have played a significant role in historical shifts in African rainfall, and yet assessment of the impact on African rainfall of near-term (10–40 yr) potential aerosol emission pathways remains largely unexplored. While existing literature links future aerosol declines to a northward shift of Sahel rainfall, existing climate projections rely on RCP scenarios that do not explore the range of air quality drivers. Here we present projections from two emission scenarios that better envelop the range of potential aerosol emissions. More aggressive emission cuts result in northward shifts of the tropical rainbands whose signal can emerge from expected internal variability on short, 10–20-yr time horizons. We also show for the first time that this northward shift also impacts East Africa, with evidence of delays to both onset and withdrawal of the short rains. However, comparisons of rainfall impacts across models suggest that only certain aspects of both the West and East African model responses may be robust, given model uncertainties. This work motivates the need for wider exploration of air quality scenarios in the climate science community to assess the robustness of these projected changes and to provide evidence to underpin climate adaptation in Africa. In particular, revised estimates of emission impacts of legislated measures every 5–10 years would have a value in providing near-term climate adaptation information for African stakeholders.

scholarly journals Impact of Urbanization and Land-Use Change on Surface Climate in Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River, 1988–2008

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaowei Yao ◽  
Zhanqi Wang ◽  
Hua Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Land Use Change ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Global Environmental Change ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
The Impact

Land-use/land cover change (LUCC) is one of the fundamental causes of global environmental change. In recent years, understanding the regional climate impact of LUCC has become a hot-discussed topic worldwide. Some studies have explored LUCC impact on regional climate in specific cities, provinces, or farming areas. However, the quick-urbanized areas, which are highly influenced by human activities, have the most severe land-use changes in developing countries, and their climatic impact cannot be ignored. This study aims to identify the impact of land-use change coupled with urbanization on regional temperature and precipitation in the metropolitan areas of middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in China by means of spatial analysis and numeric methods. Based on the exploration of land-use change and climate change during 1988–2008, the impact of land-use transition from non-built-up area to built-up area on temperature and precipitation was analyzed. The results indicated that the land-use conversion has affected the regional temperature with an increasing effect in the study area, while the influence on precipitation was not so significant. The results can provide useful information for spatial planning policies in consideration of regional climate change.

Impact of climate change on water requirements and growth of potato in different climatic zones of Montenegro

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 657-671 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Knežević ◽  
Ljubomir Zivotić ◽  
Nataša Čereković ◽  
Ana Topalović ◽  
Nikola Koković ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Viable Solution ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on potato cultivation in Montenegro was assessed. Three scenarios (A1B, A1Bs and A2) for 2001–2030, 2071–2100 and 2071–2100, respectively, were generated by a regional climate model and compared with the baseline period 1961–1990. The results indicated an increase of temperature during the summer season from 1.3 to 4.8 °C in the mountain region and from 1 to 3.4 °C in the coastal zone. The precipitation decreased between 5 and 50% depending on the scenario, region and season. The changes in temperature and precipitation influenced phenology, yield and water needs. The impact was more pronounced in the coastal areas than in the mountain regions. The growing season was shortened 13.6, 22.9 and 29.7 days for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. The increase of irrigation requirement was 4.0, 19.5 and 7.3 mm for A1B, A1Bs and A2, respectively. For the baseline conditions, yield reduction under rainfed cultivation was lower than 30%. For A1B, A1Bs and A2 scenarios, yield reductions were 31.0 ± 8.2, 36.3 ± 11.6 and 34.1 ± 10.9%, respectively. Possible adaptation measures include shifting of production to the mountain (colder) areas and irrigation application. Rainfed cultivation remains a viable solution when the anticipation of sowing is adopted.

The Impact of Aerosols on the Summer Rainfall Frequency in China

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (6) ◽  
pp. 1802-1813 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong-Sang Choi ◽  
Chang-Hoi Ho ◽  
Jinwon Kim ◽  
Dao-Yi Gong ◽  
Rokjin J. Park
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Cloud Amount ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Aerosol Concentration ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cloud Optical Depth ◽  
Cloud Properties ◽  
Rainfall Frequency ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The authors investigate the short-term relationship between aerosol concentrations and summer rainfall frequency in China using the daily surface observations of particulate matters with a diameter of less than 10 μm (PM10) mass concentration, rainfall, and satellite-observed cloud properties. Results in this study reveal that on the time scale of a few days aerosol concentration is positively correlated with the frequency of moderate-rainfall (10–20 mm day−1) days but is negatively correlated with the frequency of light-rainfall (<5 mm day−1) days. Satellite observations of cloud properties show that higher aerosol concentrations are positively correlated with the increase in mixed cloud amount, cloud effective radius, cloud optical depth, and cloud-top heights; this corresponds to the decrease in low-level liquid clouds and the increase in midlevel ice–mixed clouds. Based on this analysis, the authors hypothesize that the increase in aerosol concentration results in the increase in summer rainfall frequency in China via enhanced ice nucleation in the midtroposphere. However, over the past few decades, observations show an increasing long-term trend in aerosol concentration but decreasing trends in summer rainfall frequency and relative humidity (RH) in China. Despite the short-term positive relationship between summer rainfall frequency and aerosol concentration found in this study, the long-term variations in summer rainfall frequency in China are mainly determined by other factors including RH variation possibly caused by global and regional climate changes. A continuous decrease in RH resulting in less summer rainfall frequency may further enhance aerosol concentrations in the future in conjunction with the increase in the anthropogenic emissions.

scholarly journals Future changes in precipitation, evapotranspiration and streamflows in the Mono Basin of West Africa

2021 ◽  
Vol 384 ◽  
pp. 283-288
Author(s):  
Lamboni Batablinlè ◽  
Lawin E. Agnidé ◽  
Kodja Domiho Japhet ◽  
Amoussou Ernest ◽  
Vissin Expédit
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
High Flows ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The impact of climate change on precipitation and water availability is of major concern for policy makers in the Mono Basin of West Africa, whose economy mainly depends on rainfed agriculture and hydropower generation. The objective of this study is to project rainfall, flows and evapotranspiration (ET) in the future period and understand their changes across Mono River Basin. Observed data were considered for the historical period 1980–2010, and a Multi-model ensemble for future projections data of eight selected Regional Climate Models under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 over the periods 2011–2100 was used. The GR4J model was used to simulate daily flows of the Mono watershed. The ensemble mean shows a decrease and increase streamflows between −54 % and 42 %, −58 % and 31 %​​​​​​​ under the RCP4.5, RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The greatest decreases of high flows is projected to occur in the near term under RCP8.5, whereas the greatest decrease of low flows is projected to occur in the long term under the same RCP. For the rainfall and ET, the both scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) predict an increase of ET while the rainfall will decrease. The results of this study of would be very useful in the choice of management and adaptation policies for water resources management.

scholarly journals Bias Correction, Historical Evaluations and Future Projections of Climate Simulations in the Wei River Basin Using CORDEX-EA

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yinping Wang ◽  
Rengui Jiang ◽  
Jiancang Xie ◽  
Jiwei Zhu ◽  
Yong Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Spring Temperature ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Wei River Basin ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
Wei River Basin

Abstract The utilization of Regional Climate Methods (RCMs) to predict future regional climate is an important study under the changing environment. The primary objective of the paper is to correct the temperature and precipitation simulations for the period of 1980-2005 and 2026-2098 in the Wei River Basin (WRB), to evaluate the performance of RCMs for the period of 1980-2005, and further, to analyze the future changes of projected temperature and precipitation during 2026-2098. In this paper, the linear scaling method was used to correct the temperature simulations. Quantile mapping, local intensity scaling method and hybrid method were used to correct the precipitation simulations. The future changes of projected temperature and precipitation for the near-term (2026-2050), mid-term (2051-2075) and far-term (2076-2098), relative to the period of 1980-2005, were investigated under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Results indicate that: (1) The temperature biases were different spatial distributions, and the precipitation wet biases were detected in the WRB. After correction, HadGEM2-ES driven by RegCM4-4 had the best temperature reproducibility, and NCC-NorESM1-M driven by RegCM4-4 had the best precipitation reproducibility. (2) Under RCP 2.6, the projected annual, winter and spring temperature showed decreasing trends. The temperature was higher than that for the period of 1980-2005 except for the spring temperature decreases in the Beiluo River Basin. Under RCP 8.5, the temperature showed significantly increasing trends. The temperature for the near-term was similar to the period of 1980-2005, while the temperature increased significantly for the mid-term and far-term. (3) Under RCP 2.6, the precipitation had decreasing trends. Under RCP 8.5, precipitation trends were also spatially distributed. The relative deviation of winter precipitation was the largest. Relative to the period of 1980-2005, the light and moderate rain days showed little change for the period of 2026-2098, while the extreme rain days showed significantly increasing trends. (4) The results could be beneficial to the future climate projection, which provide references for the water resources management, the future hydrological process changes and attribution analysis in the WRB.

Foreign-exchange risk dogs Central Europe

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Foreign Exchange Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Greek Crisis ◽  
National Currencies ◽  
Exchange Risk ◽  
Near Term ◽  
The Impact

Significance This unexpected appreciation surge came after several weeks of sharp currency swings, as contagion from the Greek crisis hit foreign exchange (FX) markets. In the 'Visegrad Four' (V4) -- Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia -- central banks remain on their guard in order to support national currencies and minimise the impact of either excessive depreciation or appreciation. Impacts A V4 government bond sell-off now looks unlikely, but yields on short-term debt will continue to rise in the near term, before stabilising. Short-term FX volatility is likely, but a significant liquidity crisis is unlikely owing to minimal exposure to Greek finances and trade. V4 central banks will want to hedge against FX risks, and monetary policy will remain loose for longer than expected.

scholarly journals Use of the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Model to Forecast Near-Term Regional Temperature and Precipitation

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 959-976 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuchuan Lai ◽  
David A. Dzombak
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Environmental Engineering ◽  
Statistical Techniques ◽  
Engineering Applications ◽  
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Regional Temperature ◽  
Near Term

Abstract A data-driven approach for obtaining near-term (2–20 years) regional temperature and precipitation projections utilizing local historical observations was established in this study to facilitate civil and environmental engineering applications. Given the unique characteristics of temporal correlation and skewness exhibited in individual time series of temperature and precipitation variables, a statistical time series forecasting technique was developed based on the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Annual projections obtained from the ARIMA model—depending on individual series—can be interpreted as an integration of the most recent observations and the long-term historical trend. In addition to annual temperature and precipitation forecasts, methods of estimating confidence intervals for different return periods and simulating future daily temperature and precipitation were developed to extend the applicability for use in engineering. Quantitative comparisons of annual temperature and precipitation forecasts developed from the ARIMA model and other common statistical techniques such as a linear trend method were performed. Results suggested that while the ARIMA model cannot outperform all other techniques for all evaluated climate indices, the ARIMA model in general provides more accurate projections—especially interval forecasts—and is more reliable than other common statistical techniques. With the use of the ARIMA-based statistical forecasting model, interpretable and reliable near-term, location-specific temperature and precipitation forecasts can be obtained for consideration of changing climate in civil and environmental engineering applications.

Climate effects of changing aerosol emissions over the coming decades

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bjorn H. Samset ◽  
Camilla W. Stjern ◽  
Marianne T. Lund
Keyword(s):  
Global Scale ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosols ◽  
Anthropogenic Aerosol ◽  
Surface Temperature Change ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Large Ensembles ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Aerosol Emissions

<div>Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols strongly influence the climate, by modulating global and regional temperature, and by affecting precipitation, extremes, circulation patterns and other local-to-global scale features. This influence has been continually changing over previous decades, and will continue to change at least until 2050. It is also highly heterogeneous, in space and time. Hence, a deeper look at the potential role of anthropogenic aerosol emissions in shaping climate change over the coming decades is crucial for both adaptation and mitigation strategies. </div><div> </div><div>Here, we discuss three techniques to bound the potential near-term role of aerosols: (i) The influence on local and global rates of warming, relative to natural variability, using simplified models in combination with Large Ensembles, (ii) an overall constraint on the precipitation influence of absorbing aerosols, combining recent emission projections with results from several multi-model intercomparison projects, and (iii) changes to regional distributions of daily temperature and precipitation as function of the level of aerosol emissions and global warming, leveraging the statistics available through Large Ensembles. </div><div> </div><div>Overall, we find that while greenhouse gas emissions will continue to dominate the global mean climate evolution, by driving surface temperature change and its associated feedbacks, aerosol emissions may still hold a key - or even dominating - influence on changes to regional weather and climate. </div>

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