Watersheds may not recover from drought

Science ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 372 (6543) ◽  
pp. 745-749 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim J. Peterson ◽  
M. Saft ◽  
M. C. Peel ◽  
A. John
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
Millennium Drought ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

The Millennium Drought (southeastern Australia) provided a natural experiment to challenge the assumption that watershed streamflow always recovers from drought. Seven years after the drought, the runoff (as a fraction of precipitation) had not recovered in 37% of watersheds, and the number of recovered watersheds was not increasing. When recovery did occur, it was not explained by watershed wetness. For those watersheds not recovered, ~80% showed no evidence of recovering soon, suggesting persistence within a low-runoff state. The post-drought precipitation not going to runoff was found to be likely going to increased evapotranspiration per unit of precipitation. These findings show that watersheds can have a finite resilience to disturbances and suggest that hydrological droughts can persist indefinitely after meteorological droughts.

scholarly journals Socioeconomic Drought in a Mexican Semi-arid City: Monterrey Metropolitan Area, a Case Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Víctor Magaña ◽  
Eduardo Herrera ◽  
Carlos J. Ábrego-Góngora ◽  
José Antonio Ávalos
Keyword(s):  
Water Management ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Dam Reservoirs ◽  
Northeastern Mexico ◽  
Landfalling Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Semi Arid Region ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

The Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA) is located in northeastern Mexico in a semi-arid region. As in other areas of the world, prolonged and severe meteorological droughts are recurrent. Meteorological droughts affect the level of dam reservoirs, rivers, and groundwater (aquifers) in the region to the extent they become hydrological droughts which in turn may contribute to socioeconomic droughts. The recent dry event (2011–2013) in northern Mexico severely affected various socioeconomic sectors and may serve as an example of future climatic and hydrologic conditions in this region. Meteorological droughts in northeastern Mexico, mostly induced by anomalously intense subsidence, frequently result in hydrological droughts and intense pressure in the water resources services of the Monterrey Metropolitan Area (MMA), one of the largest cities in Mexico. Landfalling tropical cyclones entering northeastern Mexico historically have alleviated water crises during prolonged droughts. In 2013, the rains from tropical cyclone Ingrid helped to recover water levels in the system of dam reservoirs that provides water to the MMA. However, water management is only one part of a complex socioeconomic system that must respond to the growing demands for water in a region where aquifers are already overexploited. Trends in the atmospheric circulation indicate that droughts in the region may become more severe in the coming decades. Improved water management programs and protocols should be considered in addition to closer reviews of the hydraulic infrastructure. Water transfers from one region to another should be carefully planned because solving a problem in one place may adversely affect another. The use of climate information may be critical to avoidance of water conflicts in the future.

scholarly journals Evolution characteristics and relationship of meteorological and hydrological droughts from 1961 to 2018 in Hanjiang River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Wang ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Amgad Elmahdi ◽  
Zhangkang Shu ◽  
Yinghui Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Evolution Characteristics ◽  
Hanjiang River ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the acceleration of the water cycle will increase the risk of basin drought. In this study, to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hydrological and meteorological droughts over the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were selected and applied for the period 1961–2018. In addition, the cross-wavelet method was used to discuss the relationship between hydrological drought and meteorological droughts. The results and analysis indicated that: (1) the meteorological drought in the HRB showed a complex cyclical change trend of flood-drought-flood from 1961 to 2018. The basin drought began to intensify from 1990s and eased in 2010s. The characteristics of drought evolution in various regions are different based on scale. (2) During the past 58 years, the hydrological drought in the HRB has shown a significant trend of intensification, particularly in autumn season. Also, the hydrological droughts had occurred frequently since the 1990s, and there were also regional differences in the evolution characteristics of drought in various regions. (3) Reservoir operation reduces the frequency of extreme hydrological drought events. The effect of reducing the duration and intensity of hydrological drought events by releasing water from the reservoir is most obvious at Huangjiagang Station, which is the nearest to Danjiangkou Reservoir. (4) The hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the HRB have the strongest correlation on the yearly scale. After 1990, severe human activities and climate change are not only reduced the correlation between hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, but also reduced the lag time between them. Among them, the hydrological drought in the upper reaches of the basin lags behind the meteorological drought by 1 month, and the hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has changed from 2 months before 1990 to 1 month lagging after 1990.

scholarly journals Conceptual Model Modification and the Millennium Drought of Southeastern Australia

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 669
Author(s):  
Justin Hughes ◽  
Nick Potter ◽  
Lu Zhang ◽  
Robert Bridgart
Keyword(s):  
Objective Function ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Predictive Performance ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Model Modification ◽  
Southeastern Australia ◽  
Evaluation Bias ◽  
Millennium Drought

Long-term droughts observed in southern Australia have changed relationships between annual rainfall and runoff and tested some of the assumptions implicit in rainfall–runoff models used in these areas. Predictive confidence across these periods is when low using the more commonly used rainfall–runoff models. Here we modified the GR4J model to better represent surface water–groundwater connection and its role in runoff generation. The modified model (GR7J) was tested in 137 catchments in south-east Australia. Models were calibrated during “wetter” periods and simulation across drought periods was assessed against observations. GR7J performed better than GR4J in evaluation during drought periods where bias was significantly lower and showed improved fit across the flow duration curve especially at low flows. The largest improvements in predictive performance were for catchments where there were larger changes in the annual rainfall–runoff relationship. The predictive performance of the GR7J model was more sensitive to objective function used than GR4J. The use of an objective function that combined daily and annual error produced a better goodness of fit when measured against 80, 50 and 20 percent excedance flow quantiles and reduced evaluation bias, especially for the GR7J model.

scholarly journals Relationships between meteorological and hydrological drought in a young-glacial zone (north-western Poland)based on Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI)

2020 ◽  
pp. 517-531
Keyword(s):  
Correlation Coefficient ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Standardised Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
North Western ◽  
Meteorological Droughts ◽  
Standardized Runoff Index

This study aims to indicate the relationship between meteorological drought and hydrological drought on the example of a lakeland catchment in north-western Poland. The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardised Runoff Index (SRI) were used to identify drought during 1-, 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month cumulation periods. In the study period 1971–2015, 13 to 62 meteorological droughts and 6 to 21 hydrological droughts were identified. The highest number of droughts occurred for the shortest cumulation period (1 month) and the lowest number for the longest cumulation period (12 months). The relationship between SPI and SRI coefficients over the annual course was strongest for the 9-month cumulation period. The highest correlation coefficient was obtained for February.

scholarly journals ASSESSING DROUGHT CHARACTERISTICS OF MELAKA BASIN USING JOINT METEOROLOGICAL AND STREAMFLOW INDICES

2020 ◽  
Vol 80 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kee An Hong ◽  
Jer Lang Hong ◽  
Izihan Ibrahim
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Frequency Of Occurrence ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Drought Occurrence ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

In this study, drought occurrence in the Melaka basin has been assessed using the meteorological and hydrological drought indices. A continuous rainfall and streamflow data of 40 years were used for drought analysis. Results show that in terms of meteorological drought index, the severe drought occurred in 1986-1988. The streamflow drought index indicates that the extreme drought occurred in 1982-1984. Further analysis based on seasonal precipitation and streamflow data shows that there is no drought for 79% of the time for the period 1960-2000 where there are hydrological records. For most of the dry and wet seasons, it is more likely that the frequency of occurrence of hydrological droughts only is higher than the frequency of occurrence of meteorological and hydrological droughts simultaneously or only meteorological droughts.

Evolution of future extreme drought frequency in two climate model large ensembles

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cha Zhao ◽  
François Brissette ◽  
Jie Chen ◽  
Jean-Luc Martel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
Extreme Drought ◽  
System Model ◽  
Frequency Change ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

<p>Recent studies project a significant increase in drought frequency over most continents over the 21<sup>st</sup> century. However, few studies have specifically looked at extreme droughts, defined here as having a return period larger than 20 years. In this work, two large climate model ensembles, the 50-member Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) and the 40-member Community Earth System Model (CESM1), both under the RCP8.5 scenario are used to project the evolution of the extreme drought frequency in the near (2036-2065) and far future (2070-2099) relative to the 1980-2009 historical period. The use of a large ensemble allows for a robust estimation of the frequency of very large droughts. Frequency changes for the 2, 20 and 100-year droughts were computed.</p><p>Extreme meteorological droughts were globally assessed using the short-term (1-month) and long-term (24-month) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Extreme hydrological extreme droughts were assessed by the 1-month Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), using a lumped hydrological model on 5797 North American catchments to transform climate model outputs into catchment streamflows.</p><p>Results show that both climate models project increases of extreme meteorological drought frequency over many of the world’s regions, with a typical two or three-fold increase. The spatial distribution of regions with increasing meteorological drought frequency mostly matches those projected changes in future mean annual precipitation. Changes in future extreme hydrological droughts are dramatically more severe than for meteorological droughts, with up to a 27-times increase in frequency for the 100-year hydrological droughts, outlining the large impact of temperature change. The frequency change is the largest for the 100-year compared to the 2 and 20-year hydrological droughts.</p>

scholarly journals Characteristics of drought propagation in South Korea: relationship between meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts

2019 ◽  
Vol 99 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-16 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyedeuk Bae ◽  
Heesook Ji ◽  
Yoon-Jin Lim ◽  
Young Ryu ◽  
Moon-Hyun Kim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
Reservoir Storage ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Agricultural Reservoir ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract To investigate the propagation of meteorological droughts to agricultural and hydrological droughts, the relationship between droughts was analyzed using observed precipitation and agricultural reservoir and dam storage levels with SPI from 1998 to 2015 in South Korea. For the relationship between different types of droughts, we find that the occurrence of meteorological droughts after concentrated precipitation in the wet season (from June to September) tends not to lead to agricultural or hydrological droughts. A lack of precipitation from April to September, when large volumes of irrigation water are consumed, triggers both meteorological and agricultural droughts. In the case of hydrological droughts propagated from meteorological droughts, precipitation deficits in the dry season (between October and March) caused decrease in dam storage levels only. The occurrence of all different types of droughts is associated with extreme meteorological droughts, which are mainly caused by precipitation deficits in the wet season or prolonged rainfall shortages; in these cases, meteorological droughts led to agricultural and hydrological droughts. An analysis of the seasonal characteristics of storage level changes that in the wet season, agricultural reservoir storage levels are more dependent on precipitation deficits than dam storage levels. On other hand, when precipitation deficits were recorded in the dry season, agricultural reservoir storage levels went up, but dam storage levels dropped. The propagation of meteorological droughts to agricultural and hydrological droughts depends not only on drought severity but also on the drought timing. These findings may contribute to establishing a comprehensive drought monitoring system.

scholarly journals Evolution Characteristics and Relationship of Meteorological and Hydrological Droughts from 1961 to 2018 in Hanjiang River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lin Wang ◽  
Jianyun Zhang ◽  
Amgad Elmahdi ◽  
Zhangkang Shu ◽  
Zhenxin Bao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Human Activities ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Evolution Characteristics ◽  
Hanjiang River ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In the context of global warming and increasing human activities, the acceleration of the water cycle will increase the risk of basin drought. In this study, to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of hydrological and meteorological droughts over the Hanjiang River Basin (HRB); the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) were selected and applied for the period 1961–2018. In addition, the cross-wavelet method was used to discuss the relationship between hydrological drought and meteorological droughts. The results and analysis indicated that: (1) the meteorological drought in the HRB showed a complex cyclical change trend of flood-drought-flood from 1961 to 2018. The basin drought began to intensify from 1990s and eased in 2010s. The characteristics of drought evolution in various regions are different based on scale. (2) During the past 58 years, the hydrological drought in the HRB has shown a significant trend of intensification, particularly in autumn season. Also, the hydrological droughts had occurred frequently since the 1990s, and there were also regional differences in the evolution characteristics of drought in various regions. (3) Reservoir operation reduces the frequency of extreme hydrological drought events. The effect of reducing the duration and intensity of hydrological drought events by releasing water from the reservoir is most obvious at Huangjiagang Station, which is the nearest to Danjiangkou Reservoir. (4) The hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the HRB have the strongest correlation on the yearly scale. After 1990, severe human activities and climate change are not only reduced the correlation between hydrological drought and meteorological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin, but also reduced the lag time between them. Among them, the hydrological drought in the upper reaches of the basin lags behind the meteorological drought by 1 month, and the hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of the basin has changed from 2 months before 1990 to 1 month lagging after 1990.

scholarly journals Comparison of the Entropy- and Copula-based Precipitation-Streamflow Drought Indices for Assessing Agricultural Drought in Arid and Semi-arid Coastal Areas of Southern Iran

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javad Bazrafshan ◽  
Zahra Azhdari
Keyword(s):  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Agricultural Drought ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Southern Iran ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Semi Arid ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In arid and semi-arid regions, precipitation and seasonal streamflow are the two major sources of water for vegetation. The scarcity of these water sources has a detrimental effect on vegetation cover degradation. The purpose of this research is to study the effect of meteorological and hydrological droughts, and also their combined effects, on vegetation changes in seven coastal sub-basins in southern Iran (part of the Bandar-Sedij and Kol-Mehran catchment). To track meteorological and hydrological droughts, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were used. The copula function and the entropy approach (which is developed in this research) were used to blend individual meteorological and hydrological drought indices, yielding hybrid indices called the Copula-based Drought Index and the Entropy-based Drought Index (EnDI). The single (i.e., SPI and SDI) and hybrid drought indices (CoDI and EnDI) were compared in terms of temporal behavior, drought severity and duration characteristics, drought frequency, and a bivariate analysis of the drought severity-duration return period. The results indicated that the rank correlation (\({r}_{s}\)) between SPI and SDI ranged between 0.327 and 0.726 in the studied sub-basins. However, the two hybrid indices CoDI and EnDI had extremely high correlations (\({r}_{s}\ge 0.9\)). Despite the fact that meteorological droughts benefited both hybrid drought indices more than hydrological droughts, the contribution of meteorological droughts to EnDI was greater than that of CoDI. Over the study region, CoDI reported droughts that were both longer and more severe than those recorded by EnDI. EnDI showed stronger associations with the Normalized Vegetation Difference Index (NDVI) in nearly all the sub-basins, possibly because precipitation has a greater effect on EnDI than it does on CoDI. EnDI was therefore recommended as a superior index for estimating vegetation droughts throughout the research region.

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