Water Availability of Sub-Basins with Restrictions on Use under Climate Change Scenarios in Brazil

Mountain ranges are the world’s natural water towers and provide water resources for millions of people. However, their hydrological balance and possible future changes in river flow remain poorly understood because of high meteorological variability, physical inaccessibility, and the complex interplay between climate, cryosphere, and hydrological processes. Here, we use a state-of-the art glacio-hydrological model informed by data from high-altitude observations and the latest climate change scenarios to quantify the climate change impact on water resources of two contrasting catchments vulnerable to changes in the cryosphere. The two study catchments are located in the Central Andes of Chile and in the Nepalese Himalaya in close vicinity of densely populated areas. Although both sites reveal a strong decrease in glacier area, they show a remarkably different hydrological response to projected climate change. In the Juncal catchment in Chile, runoff is likely to sharply decrease in the future and the runoff seasonality is sensitive to projected climatic changes. In the Langtang catchment in Nepal, future water availability is on the rise for decades to come with limited shifts between seasons. Owing to the high spatiotemporal resolution of the simulations and process complexity included in the modeling, the response times and the mechanisms underlying the variations in glacier area and river flow can be well constrained. The projections indicate that climate change adaptation in Central Chile should focus on dealing with a reduction in water availability, whereas in Nepal preparedness for flood extremes should be the policy priority.

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Adaptation Effort and Performance of Water Management Strategies to Face Climate Change Impacts in Six Representative Basins of Southern Europe

Water ◽

10.3390/w11051078 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 11 (5) ◽

pp. 1078 ◽

Cited By ~ 6

Author(s):

Alvaro Sordo-Ward ◽

Alfredo Granados ◽

Ana Iglesias ◽

Luis Garrote ◽

María Bejarano

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Use ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Allocation ◽

Methodological Approach ◽

River Network ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Southern Europe ◽

Management Measures ◽

Irrigation Water Use

We evaluated different management alternatives to enhance potential water availability for agriculture under climate change scenarios. The management goal involved maximizing potential water availability, understood as the maximum volume of water supplied at a certain point of the river network that satisfies a defined demand, and taking into account specified reliability requirements. We focused on potential water availability for agriculture and assumed two types of demands: urban supply and irrigation. If potential water availability was not enough to satisfy all irrigation demands, management measures were applied aiming at achieving a compromise solution between resources and demands. The methodological approach consisted of estimation and comparison of runoff for current and future period under climate change effects, calculation of water availability changes due to changes in runoff, and evaluation of the adaptation choices that can modify the distribution of water availability, under climate change. Adaptation choices include modifying water allocation to agriculture, increasing the reservoir storage capacity, improving the efficiency of urban water use, and modifying water allocation to environmental flows. These management measures were evaluated at the desired points of the river network by applying the Water Availability and Adaptation Policy Analysis (WAAPA) model. We simulated the behavior of a set of reservoirs that supply water for a set of prioritized demands, complying with specified ecological flows and accounting for evaporation losses. We applied the methodology in six representative basins of southern Europe: Duero-Douro, Ebro, Guadalquivir, Po, Maritsa-Evros, and Struma-Strymon. While in some basins, such as the Ebro or Struma-Strymon, measures can significantly increase water availability and compensate for a fraction of water scarcity due to climate change, in other basins, like the Guadalquivir, water availability cannot be enhanced by applying the management measures analyzed, and irrigation water use will have to be reduced.

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Long-Term Variability in Potential Evapotranspiration, Water Availability and Drought under Climate Change Scenarios in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽

10.3390/atmos11090883 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 11 (9) ◽

pp. 883 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Mahtsente Tadese ◽

Lalit Kumar ◽

Richard Koech

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Availability ◽

Potential Evapotranspiration ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Water Shortage ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Awash River Basin ◽

Mitigate Climate Change

Understanding the hydrological processes of a watershed in response to climate change is vital to the establishment of sustainable environmental management strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and water availability in the Awash River Basin (ARB) under different climate change scenarios and to relate these with long-term drought occurrences in the area. The PET and water availability of the ARB was estimated during the period of 1995–2009 and two future scenarios (2050s and 2070s). The representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) simulations showed an increase in the monthly mean PET from March to August in the 2050s, and all the months in the 2070s. The study also identified a shortage of net water availability in the majority of the months investigated and the occurrence of mild to extreme drought in about 40–50% of the analysed years at the three study locations (Holetta, Koka Dam, and Metehara). The decrease in water availability and an increase in PET, combined with population growth, will aggravate the drought occurrence and food insecurity in the ARB. Therefore, integrated watershed management systems and rehabilitation of forests, as well as water bodies, should be addressed in the ARB to mitigate climate change and water shortage in the area.

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Effects of prospective climate change on pasture productivity in the Italian Alps.

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-16229 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Francesca Casale ◽

Daniele Bocchiola

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Future Climate ◽

Environmental Stability ◽

Special Focus ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Italian Alps ◽

Mountain Areas ◽

Climatic Scenarios ◽

Rcp 8.5

We present here preliminary results in fulfilment of the project IPCC MOUPA (Interdisciplinary Project for assessing current and expected Climate Change impacts on MOUntain PAstures) project, funded by Fondazione Cariplo of Italy, aimed to i) evaluate potentially modified productivity of pasture lands under climate change scenarios, and subsequent on socio-economic, wildlife and biodiversity impacts, within the Italian Alps, and ii) propose management strategies for pasture and multi-functional use of mountain areas.In high mountain areas pastures are a source of living for local communities, and further agriculture and livestock supply ecosystems services (ES). In the last century, increase of temperature nearby +1.5&#176;C was observed in the Alpine region, to increase hereon, and future climate scenarios display potential reduction of water availability, with an increase in precipitation extremes, potentially impacting soil moisture, vegetation, and pasture dynamics (phenology/timing), deeply dependent upon precipitation, temperature, and snow cover.We here defined some fragility indices (FIs), to sketch the effects of climate change on pastures in the Alps, with special focus on Valtellina valley, in the central Alps of Italy. FIs can be used to highlight pressures experienced by pastures, and thresholds for failure, and to develop policies to i) determine zones needing particular management, and adaptation, ii) monitor trends of global environmental stability, iii) evaluate the overall impact of climate change and anthropic influence, and iv) investigate the dynamics of pasture fragility. We chose indices of climate, productivity, and water usage. Some of these FIs can be evaluated starting from observations, but others have to be calculated using models of pasture growth, and water availability. For this reason, a pasture model Poli-Pasture has been set up to simulate the pasture growth, and to evaluate FIs in the target area.To explore the broad range of variability under uncertain future climate, FIs are calculated for present conditions of pastures, and for future projected conditions using i) three climatic scenarios of AR5 of IPCC (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) as depicted by three Global Circulation Models GCMs (EC-Earth, Echam6.0, CCSM4), and ii) four climatic scenarios of the AR6 (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 7.0, RCP 8.5) depicted by three GCMs (EC-Earth3, Echam6.3, CESM2), and some preliminary conclusion are reported for future pasture dynamics, and management therein.

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A multi-risk assessment of water scarcity in the south-eastern Italian Alps using a System Dynamics approach

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-5049 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Stefano Terzi ◽

Janez Sušnik ◽

Sara Masia ◽

Silvia Torresan ◽

Stefan Schneiderbauer ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Water Demand ◽

Anthropogenic Activities ◽

High Water ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Multiple Impacts ◽

Dam Reservoirs

Mountain regions are facing multiple impacts due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. Shifts in precipitation and temperature are affecting the available water influencing a variety of economic activities that still rely on large quantities of water (e.g. ski tourism, energy production and agriculture). The Alps are among those areas where recent events of decreased water availability triggered emerging water disputes and spread of economic impacts across multiple sectors and from upstream high water availability areas to downstream high water demand areas. In order to make our water management systems more resilient, there is a need to unravel the interplays and dependencies that can lead to multiple impacts across multiple sectors. However, current assessments dealing with climate change usually account for a mono sectoral and single risk perspective.This study hence shows an integrative assessment of multi-risk processes across strategic sectors of the Alpine economy. System dynamics modelling (SDM) is applied as a powerful tool to evaluate the multiple impacts stemming from interactions and feedbacks among water-food-energy economic sectors of the Noce river catchment in the Province of Trento (Italy).The SDM developed for the Noce catchment combined outputs from physically based models to evaluate water availability and statistical assessments for water demands from three main sectors: (i) apple orchards cultivation, (ii) water releases from large dam reservoirs for hydropower production and (iii) domestic and seasonal tourism activities.Hydrological results have been validated on historical time series (i.e. 2009-2017) and projected in the future considering RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios for 2021-2050 medium term and 2041-2070 long term. Results show a precipitation decrease affecting river streamflow with consequences on water stored and turbined in all dam reservoirs of the Noce catchment, especially for long-term climate change scenarios. Moreover, temperature scenarios will increase the amount of water used for agricultural irrigation from upstream to downstream. Nevertheless, decreasing population projections will have a beneficial reduction of water demand from residents, counterbalancing the increasing demand from the other sectors.Finally, the integrated SDM fostered discussions in the Noce catchment on interplays between climate change and anthropogenic activities to tackle climate-related water scarcity.

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Future Water Availability from Hindukush-Karakoram-Himalaya upper Indus Basin under Conflicting Climate Change Scenarios

Climate ◽

10.3390/cli4030040 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol 4 (3) ◽

pp. 40 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

Shabeh ul Hasson

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Indus Basin ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Upper Indus Basin

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Assessment of water availability in the period of 100 years at the head of the São Francisco river basin, based on climate change scenarios

Revista Engenharia na Agricultura - REVENG ◽

10.13083/reveng.v29i1.11641 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 29 ◽

pp. 107-121

Author(s):

Priscila Esposte Coutinho ◽

Marcio Cataldi

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

River Basin ◽

Water Availability ◽

Climate Model ◽

Hydrological Cycle ◽

Human Consumption ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Sao Francisco River ◽

São Francisco River ◽

The Impact

In the last century, changes in climate trends have been observed around the planet, which have resulted in alterations in the hydrological cycle. Studies that take into account the impact of climate change on water availability are of great importance, especially in Brazil’s case, where water from rivers, beyond being destined for human consumption, animal watering and economic activities, has a great participation in electricity generation. This fact makes its energy matrix vulnerable to variations in the climate system. In this study, a flow analysis for the head of the São Francisco river basin was performed between 2010 and 2100, considering the precipitation data of the CCSM4 climate model presented in the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Projections of future flow were performed for the scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, based on the SMAP rain-flow model, followed by a comparative analysis with the present climate. In general, we can observe that the decades of 2010 to 2100 will be marked by the high levels of precipitation, interspersed by long droughts, in which the recorded flow will be lower than the Long Term Average (LTA) calculated for the basin. Therefore, new management strategies must be considered to maintain the multiple uses of the basin.

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Adaptation strategies for rainfed rice water management under climate change in Songkhram River Basin, Thailand

Journal of Water and Climate Change ◽

10.2166/wcc.2021.220 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Siriwat Boonwichai ◽

Sangam Shrestha ◽

Pragya Pradhan ◽

Mukand S. Babel ◽

Avishek Datta

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Management ◽

Water Availability ◽

Adaptation Strategies ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Rainfed Rice ◽

Rice Season ◽

Rice Water ◽

Songkhram River ◽

Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on water resources and evaluates adaptation strategies on rainfed rice water management under climate change scenarios in the Songkhram River Basin, Thailand. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to project the future water availability under climate change scenarios for the period of 2020–2044. Future annual water availability is expected to remain unchanged due to unchanged future rainfall but expected to reduce from June to November due to changes in seasonal rainfall. The effects of supplying irrigation water to reduce the impact of climate change and increase rainfed rice production were evaluated. To increase the rice production by 15%, it is proposed to construct a reservoir with a capacity of below 65 MCM in each of the 15 sub-basins to fulfill the irrigation water requirements during the rainfed rice season. Alternatively, adaptation at the farm scale can be implemented by constructing ponds with a capacity of 900 m3 to store water for 1 ha of rice field to meet the potential rice yield during the non-rainfed rice season. The results of this study are helpful to policymakers in understanding the potential impacts of climate change and the formulation of adaptation strategies for water and rice sectors in the basin.

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Assessing Water Security in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region Under Projected Climate Change

10.5194/hess-2019-134 ◽

2019 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Gabriela C. Gesualdo ◽

Paulo Tarso S. Oliveira ◽

Dulce B. B. Rodrigues ◽

Hoshin V. Gupta

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Availability ◽

Water Scarcity ◽

Hydrological Model ◽

Water Security ◽

Sao Paulo ◽

Metropolitan Region ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

São Paulo ◽

Increased Risk

Abstract. Climate change affects the global water cycle and has the potential to alter water availability for food-energy-water production, and for ecosystems services, on regional and local scales. An understanding these effects is crucial to assessing future water availability, and for the development of sustainable management plans. Here, we investigate the influence of anticipated climate change on water security in the Jaguari Basin, which is the main source of freshwater for 9 million people in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Region (SPMR). First, we calibrate and evaluate a hydrological model using daily observed data, obtaining satisfactory Coefficient of Determination and Kling-Gupta efficiency values for both periods. To represent possible climate change scenarios up to 2095, we consider two International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and use an ensemble of future projections generated by 17 General Circulation Models (GCMs). These data were used to drive the hydrological model to generate projected scenarios of streamflow. Then we used indicators of water scarcity and vulnerability to carry out a quantitative analysis of provision probability. Our results indicate that streamflow can be expected to exhibit increased interannual variability, significant increases in flow rate between January and March, and an extension of the dry season (currently June to September) until November. The latter includes more than 35 % reduction in streamflow during September through November (with > 50 % reduction in October). Our findings indicate an increased risk of floods and droughts accompanied by an expansion of the basin critical period, and our analysis of the Water Security Indices identifies October and November as the most vulnerable months. Overall, our analysis exposes the fragility of water security in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region, and provides valuable technical and scientific information that can be used to guide regional plans and strategies to cope with potential future water scarcity.

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