scholarly journals Risk prediction of covid-19 related death and hospital admission in adults after covid-19 vaccination: national prospective cohort study

BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n2244
Author(s):  
Julia Hippisley-Cox ◽  
Carol AC Coupland ◽  
Nisha Mehta ◽  
Ruth H Keogh ◽  
Karla Diaz-Ordaz ◽  
...  

Abstract Objectives To derive and validate risk prediction algorithms to estimate the risk of covid-19 related mortality and hospital admission in UK adults after one or two doses of covid-19 vaccination. Design Prospective, population based cohort study using the QResearch database linked to data on covid-19 vaccination, SARS-CoV-2 results, hospital admissions, systemic anticancer treatment, radiotherapy, and the national death and cancer registries. Settings Adults aged 19-100 years with one or two doses of covid-19 vaccination between 8 December 2020 and 15 June 2021. Main outcome measures Primary outcome was covid-19 related death. Secondary outcome was covid-19 related hospital admission. Outcomes were assessed from 14 days after each vaccination dose. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance was evaluated in a separate validation cohort of general practices. Results Of 6 952 440 vaccinated patients in the derivation cohort, 5 150 310 (74.1%) had two vaccine doses. Of 2031 covid-19 deaths and 1929 covid-19 hospital admissions, 81 deaths (4.0%) and 71 admissions (3.7%) occurred 14 days or more after the second vaccine dose. The risk algorithms included age, sex, ethnic origin, deprivation, body mass index, a range of comorbidities, and SARS-CoV-2 infection rate. Incidence of covid-19 mortality increased with age and deprivation, male sex, and Indian and Pakistani ethnic origin. Cause specific hazard ratios were highest for patients with Down’s syndrome (12.7-fold increase), kidney transplantation (8.1-fold), sickle cell disease (7.7-fold), care home residency (4.1-fold), chemotherapy (4.3-fold), HIV/AIDS (3.3-fold), liver cirrhosis (3.0-fold), neurological conditions (2.6-fold), recent bone marrow transplantation or a solid organ transplantation ever (2.5-fold), dementia (2.2-fold), and Parkinson’s disease (2.2-fold). Other conditions with increased risk (ranging from 1.2-fold to 2.0-fold increases) included chronic kidney disease, blood cancer, epilepsy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, atrial fibrillation, heart failure, thromboembolism, peripheral vascular disease, and type 2 diabetes. A similar pattern of associations was seen for covid-19 related hospital admissions. No evidence indicated that associations differed after the second dose, although absolute risks were reduced. The risk algorithm explained 74.1% (95% confidence interval 71.1% to 77.0%) of the variation in time to covid-19 death in the validation cohort. Discrimination was high, with a D statistic of 3.46 (95% confidence interval 3.19 to 3.73) and C statistic of 92.5. Performance was similar after each vaccine dose. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted covid-19 mortality risk, sensitivity for identifying covid-19 deaths within 70 days was 78.7%. Conclusion This population based risk algorithm performed well showing high levels of discrimination for identifying those patients at highest risk of covid-19 related death and hospital admission after vaccination.

BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m3731 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ash K Clift ◽  
Carol A C Coupland ◽  
Ruth H Keogh ◽  
Karla Diaz-Ordaz ◽  
Elizabeth Williamson ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective To derive and validate a risk prediction algorithm to estimate hospital admission and mortality outcomes from coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in adults. Design Population based cohort study. Setting and participants QResearch database, comprising 1205 general practices in England with linkage to covid-19 test results, Hospital Episode Statistics, and death registry data. 6.08 million adults aged 19-100 years were included in the derivation dataset and 2.17 million in the validation dataset. The derivation and first validation cohort period was 24 January 2020 to 30 April 2020. The second temporal validation cohort covered the period 1 May 2020 to 30 June 2020. Main outcome measures The primary outcome was time to death from covid-19, defined as death due to confirmed or suspected covid-19 as per the death certification or death occurring in a person with confirmed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in the period 24 January to 30 April 2020. The secondary outcome was time to hospital admission with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Models were fitted in the derivation cohort to derive risk equations using a range of predictor variables. Performance, including measures of discrimination and calibration, was evaluated in each validation time period. Results 4384 deaths from covid-19 occurred in the derivation cohort during follow-up and 1722 in the first validation cohort period and 621 in the second validation cohort period. The final risk algorithms included age, ethnicity, deprivation, body mass index, and a range of comorbidities. The algorithm had good calibration in the first validation cohort. For deaths from covid-19 in men, it explained 73.1% (95% confidence interval 71.9% to 74.3%) of the variation in time to death (R 2 ); the D statistic was 3.37 (95% confidence interval 3.27 to 3.47), and Harrell’s C was 0.928 (0.919 to 0.938). Similar results were obtained for women, for both outcomes, and in both time periods. In the top 5% of patients with the highest predicted risks of death, the sensitivity for identifying deaths within 97 days was 75.7%. People in the top 20% of predicted risk of death accounted for 94% of all deaths from covid-19. Conclusion The QCOVID population based risk algorithm performed well, showing very high levels of discrimination for deaths and hospital admissions due to covid-19. The absolute risks presented, however, will change over time in line with the prevailing SARS-C0V-2 infection rate and the extent of social distancing measures in place, so they should be interpreted with caution. The model can be recalibrated for different time periods, however, and has the potential to be dynamically updated as the pandemic evolves.


BMJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
pp. m4571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline Fyfe ◽  
Lucy Telfar ◽  
Barnard ◽  
Philippa Howden-Chapman ◽  
Jeroen Douwes

Abstract Objectives To investigate whether retrofitting insulation into homes can reduce cold associated hospital admission rates among residents and to identify whether the effect varies between different groups within the population and by type of insulation. Design A quasi-experimental retrospective cohort study using linked datasets to evaluate a national intervention programme. Participants 994 317 residents of 204 405 houses who received an insulation subsidy through the Energy Efficiency and Conservation Authority Warm-up New Zealand: Heat Smart retrofit programme between July 2009 and June 2014. Main outcome measure A difference-in-difference approach was used to compare the change in hospital admissions of the study population post-insulation with the change in hospital admissions of the control population that did not receive the intervention over the same two timeframes. Relative rate ratios were used to compare the two groups. Results 234 873 hospital admissions occurred during the study period. Hospital admission rates after the intervention increased in the intervention and control groups for all population categories and conditions with the exception of acute hospital admissions among Pacific Peoples (rate ratio 0.94, 95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.98), asthma (0.92, 0.86 to 0.99), cardiovascular disease (0.90, 0.88 to 0.93), and ischaemic heart disease for adults older than 65 years (0.79, 0.74 to 0.84). Post-intervention increases were, however, significantly lower (11%) in the intervention group compared with the control group (relative rate ratio 0.89, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.90), representing 9.26 (95% confidence interval 9.05 to 9.47) fewer hospital admissions per 1000 in the intervention population. Effects were more pronounced for respiratory disease (0.85, 0.81 to 0.90), asthma in all age groups (0.80, 0.70 to 0.90), and ischaemic heart disease in those older than 65 years (0.75, 0.66 to 0.83). Conclusion This study showed that a national home insulation intervention was associated with reduced hospital admissions, supporting previous research, which found an improvement in self-reported health.


2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. e001188
Author(s):  
Monakshi Sawhney ◽  
Elizabeth G VanDenKerkhof ◽  
David H Goldstein ◽  
Xuejiao Wei ◽  
Genevieve Pare ◽  
...  

IntroductionPaediatric ambulatory surgery (same day surgery and planned same day discharge) is more frequently being performed more in Canada and around the world; however, after surgery children may return to hospital, either through the emergency department (ED) or through a hospital admission (HA). The aim of this study was to determine the patient characteristics associated with ED visits and HA in the 3 days following paediatric ambulatory surgery.MethodsThis population-based retrospective cohort study used de-identified health administrative database housed at ICES and included residents of Ontario, younger than 18 years of age, who underwent ambulatory surgery between 2014 and 2018. Patients were not involved in the design of this study. The proportion of ED visit and HA were calculated for the total cohort, and the type of surgery. The ORs and 95% CIs were calculated for each outcome using logistic regression.Results83 468 children underwent select ambulatory surgeries. 2588 (3.1%) had an ED visit and 608 (0.7%) had a HA in the 3 days following surgery. The most common reasons for ED visits included pain (17.2%) and haemorrhage (10.5%). Reasons for HA included haemorrhage (24.8%), dehydration (21.9%), and pain (9.1%).ConclusionsOur findings suggest that pain, bleeding and dehydration symptoms are associated with a return visit to the hospital. Implementing approaches to prevent, identify and manage these symptoms may be helpful in reducing ED visits or hospital admissions.


BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. e067633 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pekka Martikainen ◽  
Kaarina Korhonen ◽  
Lasse Tarkiainen

Abstract Objective To assess the association between area level density of heavy metal bands and cause specific hospital admissions and mortality. Design Longitudinal register based cohort study. Setting 311 municipalities in Finland. Participants 3 644 944 people aged 15 to 70 residing in Finland at the end of 2001. Main outcome measures Hospital admission and mortality from all causes, internal causes, alcohol attributable causes, accidental injury and violence, suicide or self-harm, and mental health related causes. Appendicitis and toxic effects of metals were negative control outcomes. Results During 50.4 million person years of follow-up in 2002-17, 4 237 807 person years with hospital admissions were observed and 221 912 individuals died. Mortality in municipalities with a moderate density of heavy metal bands (<5.7 per 10 000 inhabitants) was lower than in municipalities with no heavy metal bands. Hospital admission rates were lower in municipalities with heavy metal bands compared with those with none. These associations could be explained partly by differences in the sociodemographic characteristics of residents in these municipalities. After adjustment for individual characteristics and area level cultural and economic characteristics—proportion of the population with no religious affiliation, unemployment rate, and per capita expenditure on culture and education—large cities with a high density of heavy metal bands (8.2-11.2 per 10 000) showed a mortality advantage (hazard ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.88 to 0.96). In contrast, the association for hospital admission was fully attenuated (incidence rate ratio 0.99, 95% confidence interval 0.92 to 1.06). The cause specific analysis showed similar results, with the association most pronounced for alcohol attributable mortality (hazard ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval 0.75 to 0.93 for cities with a high density of heavy metal bands) and alcohol attributable hospital admissions (incidence rate ratio 0.84, 95% confidence interval 0.74 to 0.97 for cities with a high density of heavy metal bands) in the fully adjusted models. No association with heavy metal band density was found for the analysis using appendicitis as a negative control outcome. Conclusions The study found no evidence for adverse health outcomes with increasing density of heavy metal bands. Cities with a high density of heavy metal bands showed slightly lower rates of mortality and of hospital admissions for alcohol related problems and self-harm. Although residual confounding remains a problem in observational studies, vibrant local heavy metal scenes—comparable to many other forms of cultural capital—might help to promote health through healthier lifestyles, better coping mechanisms, and a stronger sense of community.


BMJ ◽  
2022 ◽  
pp. e067519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seilesh Kadambari ◽  
Raphael Goldacre ◽  
Eva Morris ◽  
Michael J Goldacre ◽  
Andrew J Pollard

AbstractObjectiveTo assess the impact of the covid-19 pandemic on hospital admission rates and mortality outcomes for childhood respiratory infections, severe invasive infections, and vaccine preventable disease in England.DesignPopulation based observational study of 19 common childhood respiratory, severe invasive, and vaccine preventable infections, comparing hospital admission rates and mortality outcomes before and after the onset of the pandemic in England.SettingHospital admission data from every NHS hospital in England from 1 March 2017 to 30 June 2021 with record linkage to national mortality data.PopulationChildren aged 0-14 years admitted to an NHS hospital with a selected childhood infection from 1 March 2017 to 30 June 2021.Main outcome measuresFor each infection, numbers of hospital admissions every month from 1 March 2017 to 30 June 2021, percentage changes in the number of hospital admissions before and after 1 March 2020, and adjusted odds ratios to compare 60 day case fatality outcomes before and after 1 March 2020.ResultsAfter 1 March 2020, substantial and sustained reductions in hospital admissions were found for all but one of the 19 infective conditions studied. Among the respiratory infections, the greatest percentage reductions were for influenza (mean annual number admitted between 1 March 2017 and 29 February 2020 was 5379 and number of children admitted from 1 March 2020 to 28 February 2021 was 304, 94% reduction, 95% confidence interval 89% to 97%), and bronchiolitis (from 51 655 to 9423, 82% reduction, 95% confidence interval 79% to 84%). Among the severe invasive infections, the greatest reduction was for meningitis (50% reduction, 47% to 52%). For the vaccine preventable infections, reductions ranged from 53% (32% to 68%) for mumps to 90% (80% to 95%) for measles. Reductions were seen across all demographic subgroups and in children with underlying comorbidities. Corresponding decreases were also found for the absolute numbers of 60 day case fatalities, although the proportion of children admitted for pneumonia who died within 60 days increased (age-sex adjusted odds ratio 1.71, 95% confidence interval 1.43 to 2.05). More recent data indicate that some respiratory infections increased to higher levels than usual after May 2021.ConclusionsDuring the covid-19 pandemic, a range of behavioural changes (adoption of non-pharmacological interventions) and societal strategies (school closures, lockdowns, and restricted travel) were used to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2, which also reduced admissions for common and severe childhood infections. Continued monitoring of these infections is required as social restrictions evolve.


BMJ ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. n1592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth J Williamson ◽  
Helen I McDonald ◽  
Krishnan Bhaskaran ◽  
Alex J Walker ◽  
Sebastian Bacon ◽  
...  

Abstract Objective To assess the association between learning disability and risk of hospital admission and death from covid-19 in England among adults and children. Design Population based cohort study on behalf of NHS England using the OpenSAFELY platform. Setting Patient level data were obtained for more than 17 million people registered with a general practice in England that uses TPP software. Electronic health records were linked with death data from the Office for National Statistics and hospital admission data from NHS Secondary Uses Service. Participants Adults (aged 16-105 years) and children (<16 years) from two cohorts: wave 1 (registered with a TPP practice as of 1 March 2020 and followed until 31 August 2020); and wave 2 (registered 1 September 2020 and followed until 8 February 2021). The main exposure group consisted of people on a general practice learning disability register; a subgroup was defined as those having profound or severe learning disability. People with Down’s syndrome and cerebral palsy were identified (whether or not they were on the learning disability register). Main outcome measure Covid-19 related hospital admission and covid-19 related death. Non-covid-19 deaths were also explored. Results For wave 1, 14 312 023 adults aged ≥16 years were included, and 90 307 (0.63%) were on the learning disability register. Among adults on the register, 538 (0.6%) had a covid-19 related hospital admission; there were 222 (0.25%) covid-19 related deaths and 602 (0.7%) non-covid deaths. Among adults not on the register, 29 781 (0.2%) had a covid-19 related hospital admission; there were 13 737 (0.1%) covid-19 related deaths and 69 837 (0.5%) non-covid deaths. Wave 1 hazard ratios for adults on the learning disability register (adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, and geographical location) were 5.3 (95% confidence interval 4.9 to 5.8) for covid-19 related hospital admission and 8.2 (7.2 to 9.4) for covid-19 related death. Wave 2 produced similar estimates. Associations were stronger among those classified as having severe to profound learning disability, and among those in residential care. For both waves, Down’s syndrome and cerebral palsy were associated with increased hazards for both events; Down’s syndrome to a greater extent. Hazard ratios for non-covid deaths followed similar patterns with weaker associations. Similar patterns of increased relative risk were seen for children, but covid-19 related deaths and hospital admissions were rare, reflecting low event rates among children. Conclusions People with learning disability have markedly increased risks of hospital admission and death from covid-19, over and above the risks observed for non-covid causes of death. Prompt access to covid-19 testing and healthcare is warranted for this vulnerable group, and prioritisation for covid-19 vaccination and other targeted preventive measures should be considered.


2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolai A Lund-Blix ◽  
German Tapia ◽  
Karl Mårild ◽  
Anne Lise Brantsaeter ◽  
Pål R Njølstad ◽  
...  

ABSTRACTOBJECTIVETo examine the association between maternal and child gluten intake and risk of type 1 diabetes in children.DESIGNPregnancy cohortSETTINGPopulation-based, nation-wide study in NorwayPARTICIPANTS86,306 children in The Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study born from 1999 through 2009, followed to April 15, 2018.MAIN OUTCOME MEASURESClinical type 1 diabetes, ascertained in a nation-wide childhood diabetes registry. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox regression for the exposures maternal gluten intake up to week 22 of pregnancy and child’s gluten intake when the child was 18 months old.RESULTSDuring a mean follow-up of 12.3 years (range 0.7-16.0), 346 children (0.4%) developed type 1 diabetes (incidence rate 32.6 per 100,000 person-years). The average gluten intake was 13.6 grams/day for mothers during pregnancy, and 8.8 grams/day for the child at 18 months of age. Maternal gluten intake in mid-pregnancy was not associated with the development of type 1 diabetes in the child (adjusted hazard ratio 1.02 (95% confidence interval 0.73 to 1.43) per 10 grams/day increase in gluten intake). However, the child’s gluten intake at 18 months of age was associated with an increased risk of later developing type 1 diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.46 (95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.01) per 10 grams/day increase in gluten intake).CONCLUSIONSThis study suggests that the child’s gluten intake at 18 months of age, and not the maternal intake during pregnancy, could increase the risk of type 1 diabetes in the child.WHAT IS ALREADY KNOWN ON THIS TOPICA national prospective cohort study from Denmark found that a high maternal gluten intake during pregnancy could increase the risk of type 1 diabetes in the offspring (adjusted hazard ratio 1.31 (95% confidence interval 1.001 to 1.72) per 10 grams/day increase in gluten intake). No studies have investigated the relation between the amount of gluten intake by both the mother during pregnancy and the child in early life and risk of developing type 1 diabetes in childhood.WHAT THIS STUDY ADDSIn this prospective population-based pregnancy cohort with 86,306 children of whom 346 developed type 1 diabetes we found that the child’s gluten intake at 18 months of age was associated with the risk of type 1 diabetes (adjusted hazard ratio 1.46 (95% confidence interval 1.06 to 2.01) per 10 grams/day increase in gluten intake). This study suggests that the child’s gluten intake at 18 months of age, and not the maternal intake during pregnancy, could increase the child’s risk of type 1 diabetes.


2011 ◽  
Vol 199 (1) ◽  
pp. 57-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Vedel Kessing ◽  
Gunnar Hellmund ◽  
John R. Geddes ◽  
Guy M. Goodwin ◽  
Per Kragh Andersen

BackgroundValproate is one of the most used mood stabilisers for bipolar disorder, although the evidence for the effectiveness of valproate is sparse.AimsTo compare the effect of valproate v. lithium for treatment of bipolar disorder in clinical practice.MethodAn observational cohort study with linkage of nationwide registers of all people with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder in psychiatric hospital settings who were prescribed valproate or lithium in Denmark during a period from 1995 to 2006.ResultsA total of 4268 participants were included among whom 719 received valproate and 3549 received lithium subsequent to the diagnosis of bipolar disorder. The rate of switch/add on to the opposite drug (lithium or valproate), antidepressants, antipsychotics or anticonvulsants (other than valproate) was increased for valproate compared with lithium (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.86, 95% CI 1.59–2.16). The rate of psychiatric hospital admissions was increased for valproate v. lithium (HR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.18–1.48) and regardless of the type of episode leading to a hospital admission (depressive or manic/mixed). Similarly, for participants with a depressive index episode (HR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.40–2.48), a manic index episode (HR = 1.24, 95% CI 1.01–1.51) and a mixed index episode (HR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.04–2.01), the overall rate of hospital admissions was significantly increased for valproate compared with lithium.ConclusionsIn daily clinical practice, treatment with lithium seems in general to be superior to treatment with valproate.


2018 ◽  
Vol 68 (667) ◽  
pp. e97-e104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bente Kjær Lyngsøe ◽  
Claus Høstrup Vestergaard ◽  
Dorte Rytter ◽  
Mogens Vestergaard ◽  
Trine Munk-Olsen ◽  
...  

BackgroundDepression is a common and potentially debilitating illness worldwide. Attendance to routine childcare appointments is a key point of interest in the effort to improve the health and care for families facing depression.AimTo evaluate the association between maternal depression and offspring non-attendance to the Danish childcare and vaccination programme (CCP) for children from 0–5 years of age. The CCP consists of seven separate visits and several vaccinations. To investigate if exposure to recent and previous depression may affect attendance differently.Design and settingPopulation-based cohort study using Danish nationwide registers.MethodParticipants were all live-born children (n = 853 315) in Denmark in the period from 1 January 2000 until 31 August 2013, and their mothers. The outcome of interest was non-attendance of each one of the seven scheduled childcare visits and two vaccination entities in the CCP. Exposure was maternal (both previous and recent) depression. All information was obtained from Danish national registries.ResultsThe risk of not attending CCP was higher for children of mothers with depression. For children of mothers with previous depression, the relative risk (RR) was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.98 to 1.03) at the 5-week childcare visit, and 1.12 (95% CI = 1.09 to 1.14) at the 5-year childcare visit. For children of mothers with recent depression, the RR was 1.07 (95% CI = 1.03 to 1.13) at the 5-week visit, and 1.15 (95% CI = 1.13 to 1.17) at the 5-year visit. Furthermore, the risk of missing at least four of the seven childcare visits was higher for children of females with maternal depression (RR = 1.16, 95% CI = 1.13 to 1.19).ConclusionMaternal depression seems to compromise CCP attendance. These findings suggest a need for careful clinical attention to these vulnerable families, even years after a diagnosis of depression.


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