Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

ObjectivesTo identify and summarise all studies using statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence or mortality rates more than 5 years into the future.Study typeSystematic review.MethodsWe performed a systematic literature search in multiple electronic databases to identify studies published from 1 January 1988 to 14 August 2018, which used statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence and/or mortality rates. Reference lists of relevant articles were checked for additional potentially relevant articles. We developed an organisational framework to classify methods into groups according to the type of data and the statistical models used. Included studies were critically appraised using prespecified criteria.ResultsOne hundred and one studies met the inclusion criteria; six studies used more than one statistical method. The number of studies reporting statistical projections for lung cancer increased substantially over time. Eighty-eight studies used projection methods, which did not incorporate data on smoking in the population, and 16 studies used a method which did incorporate data on smoking. Age–period–cohort models (44 studies) were the most commonly used methods, followed by other generalised linear models (35 studies). The majority of models were developed using observed rates for more than 10 years and used data that were considered to be good quality. A quarter of studies provided comparisons of fitted and observed rates. While validation by withholding the most recent observed data from the model and then comparing the projected and observed rates for the most recent period provides important information on the model’s performance, only 12 studies reported doing this.ConclusionThis systematic review provides an up-to-date summary of the statistical methods used in published lung cancer incidence or mortality projections. The assessment of the strengths of existing methods will help researchers to better apply and develop statistical methods for projecting lung cancer rates. Some of the common methods described in this review can be applied to the projection of rates for other cancer types or other non-infectious diseases.

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Relation Between Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates with Human Development Index and Its Components: A Global Ecological Study

Iranian Journal of Cancer Prevention ◽

10.17795/ijcp-5310 ◽

2016 ◽

Vol In Press (In Press) ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Mokhtar Soheylizad ◽

Salman Khazaei ◽

Somayeh Khazaei ◽

Shahab Rezaeian

Keyword(s):

Lung Cancer ◽

Human Development ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Human Development Index ◽

Ecological Study ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Lung Cancer Incidence ◽

Development Index ◽

Incidence And Mortality

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LUNG CANCER INCIDENCE AND MORTALITY IN THE KHANTY-MANSI AUTONOMOUS OKRUG – YUGRA

Siberian Journal of Oncology ◽

10.21294/1814-4861-2021-20-4-30-38 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 (4) ◽

pp. 30-38

Author(s):

A. A. Mordovskii ◽

A. A. Aksarin ◽

A. M. Parsadanyan ◽

M. D. Ter-Ovanesov ◽

P. P. Troyan

Keyword(s):

Computed Tomography ◽

Lung Cancer ◽

Mortality Rate ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Incidence Rates ◽

Lung Cancer Incidence ◽

Cross Correlation Analysis ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Khanty Mansi Autonomous

The aim of the study was to assess the lung cancer incidence and mortality in the Khanty-mansi autonomous okrug – Yugra during the period 1999–2019.Material and methods. We have studied the lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in Yugra over the last 21 years (1999–2019).Results. In Yugra, the lung cancer (lc) incidence rates increased by 24.7 % from 1999 to 2019, demonstrating higher rates than those in the Russian Federation (RF), where lc incidence rates decreased by 20.3 %. In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate was 30.5 per 100,000 (22.7 for RF); the age-standardized mortality rate was 16.4 per 100,000 (18.4 for RF). The mortality rate from lc in Yugra was 9.6 times higher in males than in females (35.5 vs. 3.7 per 100,000). The cross-correlation analysis revealed a correlation between the lc incidence/mortality and air pollution in Yugra. The main carcinogens in Yugra were formaldehyde, phenol, nitrogen dioxide, and benzapyrene. The assessment of the relationship between the age-standardized lc incidence/mortality rates and the amount of pollutants emitted into the atmosphere revealed that their synergistic effects with tobacco smoking can double the risk of lung cancer development. The increase in the number of chest computed tomography (ct) scans performed in the context of the pandemic caused by covid-19 infection led to an 18 % increase in the number of incidentally detected pulmonary nodules, of which 9 % of cases were diagnosed as lc.Conclusion. The lc incidence rates in Yugra tended to increase. The high rate of lc incidence is caused by man-made and natural factors, which requires the implementation of a screening program with the use of low-dose computed tomography in order to improve the early detection and prevention of this disease.

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Surveillance of the Incidence and Mortality of Oral and Pharyngeal, Esophageal, and Lung Cancer in Nevada: Potential Implications of the Nevada Indoor Clean Air Act

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18157966 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 18 (15) ◽

pp. 7966

Author(s):

Kevin Foote ◽

David Foote ◽

Karl Kingsley

Keyword(s):

Public Health ◽

Lung Cancer ◽

Oral Cancer ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Lung Cancer Incidence ◽

Annual Percent Change ◽

Smoking Restrictions ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

The Us

Reviews of national and state-specific cancer registries have revealed differences in rates of oral, esophageal, and lung cancer incidence and mortality that have implications for public health research and policy. Many significant associations between these types of cancers and major risk factors, such as cigarette usage, may be influenced by public health policy such as smoking restrictions and bans—including the Nevada Clean Indoor Air Act (NCIAA) of 2006 (and subsequent modification in 2011). Although evaluation of general and regional advances in public policy have been previously evaluated, no recent studies have focused specifically on the changes to the epidemiology of oral and pharyngeal, esophageal, and lung cancer incidence and mortality in Nevada. Methods: Cancer incidence and mortality rate data were obtained from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) Division of Cancer Control and Population Sciences (DCCPS) Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program. Most recently available rate changes in cancer incidence and mortality for Nevada included the years 2012–2016 and are age-adjusted to the year 2000 standard US population. This analysis revealed that the overall rates of incidence and mortality from these types of cancer in Nevada differs from that observed in the overall US population. For example, although the incidence rate of oral cancer is decreasing in the US overall (0.9%), it is stable in Nevada (0.0%). However, the incidence and mortality rates from esophageal cancer are also decreasing in the US (−1.1%, −1.2%, respectively), and are declining more rapidly in Nevada (−1.5%, −1.9%, respectively). Similarly, the incidence and mortality rates from lung are cancer are declining in the US (−2.5%, −2.4%, respectively) and are also declining more rapidly in Nevada (−3.2%, −3.1%, respectively). Analysis of previous epidemiologic data from Nevada (1999–2003) revealed the highest annual percent change (APC) in oral cancer incidence in the US was observed in Nevada (+4.6%), which corresponded with the highest APC in oral cancer mortality (+4.6%). Subsequent studies regarding reduced rates of cigarette use due to smoking restrictions and bans have suggested that follow up studies may reveal changes in the incidence and mortality rates of oral and other related cancers. This study analysis revealed that oral cancer incidence rates are no longer increasing in Nevada and that mortality rates have started to decline, although not as rapidly as the overall national rates. However, rapid decreases in both the incidence and mortality from esophageal and lung cancer were observed in Nevada, which strongly suggest the corresponding changes in oral cancer may be part of a larger epidemiologic shift resulting from improved public health policies that include indoor smoking restrictions and bans.

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Changes in Lung Cancer Incidence and Mortality Rates Among Americans: 1969–78

JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute ◽

10.1093/jnci/69.4.833 ◽

1982 ◽

Keyword(s):

Lung Cancer ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Lung Cancer Incidence ◽

Incidence And Mortality

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Topographical analyses of lung cancer incidence and mortality in Vojvodina

Archive of oncology ◽

10.2298/aoo1003071p ◽

2010 ◽

Vol 18 (3) ◽

pp. 71-74 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Vladimir Petrovic ◽

Marica Miladinov-Mikov ◽

Tihomir Dugandzija

Keyword(s):

Lung Cancer ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Lung Cancer Mortality ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Lung Cancer Incidence ◽

Male And Female ◽

Female Patients ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Male Patients ◽

The Eu

Background: Lung cancer is the leading cancer among men in cancer incidence as well as in cancer death. More recently, unpublished data showed that in women, lung cancer is in the second place in both incidence and mortality in Vojvodina. Methods: Data used for analyses were provided by Cancer Registry of Vojvodina, Oncology Institute of Vojvodina in Sremska Kamenica and from the Bureau of statistics. Descriptive epidemiological method was used. Data were analyzed topographically for two periods of observation, first from 1985 until 1995 and then from 1996 until 2005, separately for male and female population. Results: During the period from 1996-2005, age standardized incidence rate in male patients higher than 140/100,000 was registered in 14 municipalities with the highest incidence of 188.8/100,000. In 40 out of 44 municipalities of Vojvodina, an increase in lung cancer incidence in male patients was registered. Mortality higher than 140/100,000 was registered in 4 municipalities; the highest mortality was 209.9/100,000. In 41 out of 44 municipalities of Vojvodina, an increase in lung cancer mortality in male patients was registered. During the period from 1996-2005, age standardized incidence rate in female patients higher than 20/100,000 was registered in 29 municipalities with the highest incidence of 37.0/100,000. In 39 out of 44 municipalities of Vojvodina, an increase in lung cancer incidence in female patients was registered. Mortality in female patients higher than 20/100,000 was registered in 19 municipalities with the highest mortality of 27.2/100,000. In 33 out of 44 municipalities of Vojvodina, an increase in lung cancer mortality in female patients was registered. Conclusion: Vojvodina is a region with high lung cancer incidence and mortality rates. Incidence and mortality rates in male patients are higher according to topographical distribution than respective incidence in regions and municipalities in countries of the EU, while incidence and mortality rates in female patients are at the similar level as in the EU. In relation to results of the previous studies, we registered an important increase in lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in both male and female patients in the majority of municipalities of Vojvodina.

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Significant Regional Differences in Lung Cancer Incidence in Hungary: Epidemiological Study Between 2011 and 2016

Pathology & Oncology Research ◽

10.3389/pore.2021.1609916 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 27 ◽

Author(s):

Gabriella Gálffy ◽

Aladár Vastag ◽

Krisztina Bogos ◽

Zoltán Kiss ◽

Gyula Ostoros ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Lung Cancer ◽

Cancer Incidence ◽

Regional Differences ◽

Smoking Prevalence ◽

Mortality Rates ◽

Insurance Fund ◽

Lung Cancer Incidence ◽

Northern Great Plain ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Icd 10

Objective: Hungary has one of the highest incidences and mortality rates of lung cancer (LC), therefore the objective of this study was to analyse and compare LC incidence and mortality rates between the main Hungarian regions.Methods: This nationwide, retrospective study used data from the National Health Insurance Fund and included patients aged ≥20 years who were diagnosed with lung cancer (ICD-10 C34) between Jan 1, 2011 and Dec 31, 2016. Age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were calculated and compared for the main regions.Results: The highest incidence rate in males was recorded in Northern Hungary (146.8/100,000 person-years [PY]), while the lowest rate was found in Western Transdanubia (94.7/100,000 PY in 2011). All rates showed a declining trend between 2011 and 2016, with the largest decrease in the Northern Great Plain (−20.0%; p = 0.008). LC incidence and mortality rates in women both showed a rising tendency in all regions of Hungary, reaching the highest in Central Hungary (59.86/100,000 PY in 2016). Lung cancer incidence and mortality rates in males correlated with the level of education and smoking prevalence (p = 0.006 and p = 0.01, respectively) in the regions. A correlation with GDP per capita and Health Development Index (HDI) index could also be observed in the Hungarian regions, although these associations were not statistically significant. No correlations could be detected between these parameters among females.Conclusion: This analysis revealed considerable differences in the epidemiology of LC between the 7 main Hungarian regions. LC incidence and mortality rates significantly correlated with smoking and certain socioeconomic factors in men, but not in women. Further research is needed to explain the regional differences.

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